# 2017 Winter Severity Index



## UP Hunter (Jan 24, 2000)

Luv2hunteup said:


> It’s ground day. The ground hog saw its shadow so there are only 6 weeks of winter left. That’s great news for our deer herd.


Ha Ha!! We wish it were only 6 weeks! I've seen the ice leave the lakes on Memorial Day weekend in the past. It can be an early spring but it is going to take a while for all this snow to go.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

No WSI revision again this week. The UP has been getting a steady diet of sub zero lows and snow. It’s piling up to around 3’ in the Superior water shed. Winter weather is finally returning to parts of the lower from late fall like conditions.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

Luv2hunteup said:


> No WSI revision again this week. The UP has been getting a steady diet of sub zero lows and snow. It’s piling up to around 3’ in the Superior water shed. Winter weather is finally returning to parts of the lower from late fall like conditions.
> 
> View attachment 295476


I took down stands in roscommon county 10 days ago. Drove my truck all they way back down every 2 track I would in Oct. Wasn't even an inch of snow. My dads place in st helen hasn't had more than 4" on the ground this year at one time and that was before Xmas. Groomer hasn't run since before Xmas on the snowmobile trail.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

DirtySteve said:


> Wasn't even an inch of snow. My dads place in st helen hasn't had more than 4" on the ground this year at one time and that was before Xmas. Groomer hasn't run since before Xmas on the snowmobile trail.


I will throw this up again. Not a lot of snow in the LP until you get closer to L. Michigan. Looks like a good amount of snow coming to the SLP Friday. A lot more snow on the ground outside of Michigan than there was 2 weeks ago.
Seems like someone could put the report together every other week. 

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/michigan-snow-cover.htm

L & O


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

25 below zero here again in the Iron Mountain area. We have had a lot of subzero temps this year like we did in those winters of 2012-2014. We are supposed to get a break starting next week.

I saw a deer lying down with even its head laying down in the snow by the bird feeders Tuesday morning. A minute or so later it struggled to get up and then made it only about 30' before falling down. Struggled to get up again only to fall down again. I watched it do this until it was out of sight. Called the DNR biologist in Crystal Falls and discussed it with him. I told him I would go out in the late afternoon and look for it. I really didn't think it could go very far like that. He said if I found it they would want the entire deer carcass for testing.

I did look fairly diligently for it but never did find it. The further it went the fewer falls it had and then it got mixed in with a lot of other deer tracks and I couldn't tell for sure which runway it was on but it appeared to be headed onto neighboring private property.

There was no blood at all so we sort of ruled out poaching but it may have been hit by a car and just wasn't bleeding. Of course we discussed CWD but, thankfully, there is none really anywhere near us that we know of. The biologist said they sometimes get pneumonia with this type of weather. 

Hoping for an early spring...


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

wildthing said:


> 25 below zero here again in the Iron Mountain area. .........


Is that a wind chill temp ? NOAA site showing over night low of -12(5am) with a high yesterday of 16(3 pm).

L & O


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Liver and Onions said:


> Is that a wind chill temp ? NOAA site showing over night low of -12(5am) with a high yesterday of 16(3 pm).
> 
> L & O


No - that was actual temp a couple hours ago L & O. It has warmed up some - only 22 below now. I am actually about 20 miles east of Iron Mtn so temps do vary. It is almost always colder out this way.


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## yooperkenny (Jul 13, 2004)

Yeah I feel your pain. -15 at home in southern Marquette Co this morning and -25 out on the plains between Gwinn and Marquette. Brisk!


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

Invigorating.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Winter is half over.


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Luv2hunteup said:


> Winter is half over.


Yeaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

I would say about 50% over in UP, 60% over in NLP and 70% over here in SLP. We expect to see daffodils up on the south side of the house within a month. 

L & O


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Liver and Onions said:


> I would say about 50% over in UP, 60% over in NLP and 70% over here in SLP. We expect to see daffodils up on the south side of the house within a month.
> 
> L & O


I’ll be happy to have the frost out of the ground in early May.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

If I remember correctly, a few years ago a guy posted a picture of morels picked in SW Mi. the same day some guy posted a picture of gills taken on last ice somewhere in the UP. I guess that's one reason that Yoopers drink so much hot chocolate and rum.

L & O


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

We used to hit the North side of Lake Superior Memorial day time frame.
Encountered ice one year. Break up can be later still some years.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I’ll be happy to have the frost out of the ground in early May.


Your fret for weather would be a lot less stressful on all of us if you owned ground in the lower....Just saying..


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I’ll be happy to have the frost out of the ground in early May.


Yeah, winter may be 1/2 over but it's spring that determines life and death in the UP.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

mbrewer said:


> Yeah, winter may be 1/2 over but it's spring that determines life and death in the UP.


It’s actually the time deer spend in the yards. Die off begin when deer are in the yards for ~90 days. Fat reserves have been used up. In my area deer were still in their summer range during muzzleloader season but were filtering in from the north. A few years back they were gone before a Thanksgiving. Our herd took a hit that year and has been slowly coming back.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

Liver and Onions said:


> If I remember correctly, a few years ago a guy posted a picture of morels picked in SW Mi. the same day some guy posted a picture of gills taken on last ice somewhere in the UP. I guess that's one reason that Yoopers drink so much hot chocolate and rum.
> 
> L & O


It has been 3 or 4 years now but a good friend of mine at work from Holland michigan said his sons rode jetskis on lake Michigan then drove to their cabin on muskellonge lake and road snowmobiles the same weekend.....just so they could say they did it.


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

Luv2hunteup said:


> It’s actually the time deer spend in the yards. Die off begin when deer are in the yards for ~90 days. Fat reserves have been used up. In my area deer were still in their summer range during muzzleloader season but were filtering in from the north. A few years back they were gone before a Thanksgiving. Our herd took a hit that year and has been slowly coming back.


We're making the same point. Time in the yards is everything. Early winter, late spring, one or the other but not both.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

http://www.deeranddeerhunting.com/d...tetail-deer-survive-incredibly-brutal-winters

Several things to take away from this piece: 1.) An underweight deer surviving a hard winter likely never becomes a "normal weight" animal in subsequent years. IS this deer judged a fawn or a yearling the following year based solely on its size? 2.) The fawns most likely to suffer Winter-Kill are those that are born late...from does bred outside a breeding window that would optimize survivorship rates in a normal winter in the UP and northern lowere Michigan. 3.) A buck to doe ratio that begins to skew well out of the norm, optimizes does dropping fawns late, since a growing proportion of does would be bred outside the optimal survival window, giving birth to fawns that would go into winter at very high surface area to volume ratios.

Why deer at norther latitudes seek Winter Deer Complexes:

http://slideplayer.com/slide/6246617/21/images/8/How+does+your+body+regulate+heat.jpg

So, essentially what largely benefits a yearling over a fawn, in terms of surviving winter is its ability to shove the fawn away from food access or reach a little higher...both diminished by managing a WDC to consist of the "right" mix of thermal cover and food/forage within the yard and its peripheral habitat.


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## UP Hunter (Jan 24, 2000)

Cork Dust said:


> both diminished by managing a WDC to consist of the "right" mix of thermal cover and food/forage within the yard and its peripheral habitat.


You are talking like all the deer yards are managed. There are dozens of small yards all over the UP. Nobody is managing them. 
You also don't think that a larger body mass helps prevent losses from freezing? I can't even begin to debate this with you if you can't acknowledge that.


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

Cork Dust said:


> Radiative heat loss rate is driven by surface area to volume ratio, not mass.
> 
> Let's try it this way: Which deer is likely to be taller in your example? Is this weight difference due to muscle mass alone? Is it largely due to skeletal growth difference? Until deer reach muscular AND skeletal maturity their daily caloric needs remain higher: both in summer and winter, since they still grow albeit at a slower rate during that downswing in BMR that occurs. Live for the UP's comment was based on interval duration to fat depletion as a risk factor for death from Winter-kill. What I am trying to get you to understand is that skeletal size (mass) does little to contribute to greater survival until that mass increase begins to add body weight as fat in the post maturity interval reducing the surface area to volume ratio, particularly if (or when, should the UPWHWG's efforts continue to keep more deer on the landscape into spring green-up).
> 
> What I have also said is that the dressed 1.5YO bucks will likely have greater mortality risk via the percentage of body fat stores lost as it tries to survive a severe winter, when compared to the "lighter" doe of the same age, since the MDNR relies on that age class of bucks to do most of the breeding.


Thems fighting words. 

Before my eyes glazed over I noticed a typo, you said dressed 1.5 YO bucks, I think you meant distressed.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

mbrewer said:


> Thems fighting words.
> 
> Before my eyes glazed over I noticed a typo, you said dressed 1.5 YO bucks, I think you meant distressed.


No, Trophy Specialist was quoted dressed weights of yearling does and bucks and comparing them to what he determined to be fawns. Since yearlings don't develop a molar that distinguishes them from fawns by tooth aging until 1.5 years in healthy animals, he placed his differentiation based on body weight, which may not be a good distinguishing characteristic.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Cork Dust said:


> You are making statements about mortality data that pertain mainly to yearlings, not adults. ............


If nothing else, perhaps you now know the difference between a fawn and yearling.

L & O


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

UP Hunter said:


> You are talking like all the deer yards are managed. There are dozens of small yards all over the UP. Nobody is managing them.
> You also don't think that a larger body mass helps prevent losses from freezing? I can't even begin to debate this with you if you can't acknowledge that.


Those dozens of small yards you know of are not where MOST of the deer are overwintering in a UP winter, a fact we both know, or should know. And yes, there is a State, Federal, Private lands partnership in its fifth year that has mapped all of the historic deer yards via ground truthing, determined which of them are still used each winter, and developed management plans based on existing overstory cover, one of which LivetohuntUP posted in this thread. Rather than debating, why not simply become better informed by reading the thread. 

No, I did not at anytime state that increased biomass does diminish survivorship probability. What I did say is that the surface area to volume ratio yields a better idea of whether individual deer have a good chance of surviving without pulling bone marrow fat samples or subcutaneous fat samples. I said that there is broad overlap in this ratio of values for fawns and yearlings, putting that cohort at expanded risk of death due to Winter-kill, which is supported by the science, by apparently not by deer hunters who are able to determine age of deer by body weight or via general visual inspection. 

Kinda like my Charter Captain friends who call mature chinook 4 year olds...again, that is wrong as well.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Liver and Onions said:


> If nothing else, perhaps you now know the difference between a fawn and yearling.
> 
> L & O


Without direct aging, you don't either! Where we differ, you are willing to state that a small young deer has to be a fawn. For the nine-miilionth time there is overlap using the strict criteria of body weight, large fawns that are well fed and dropped early overlap with small malnurished yearlings from the previous year, particularly in a herd where bucks are far outnumbered by does and a herd where 1.5 YO bucks do most of the breeding...creating sequentially larger cohorts of fawns born late into the year, most of whom do not survive.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

UP Hunter said:


> .
> You also don't think that a larger body mass helps prevent losses from freezing? I can't even begin to debate this with you if you can't acknowledge that.


I am going to take cork dusts side on this one as far as the body mass argument goes. If the body mass difference is 20-25 lbs it probably doesn't make a hill of beans difference.....especially if half or more that weight is added bone mass. Bone mass isn't adding warmth or nutritional value. His logic makes sense to me. 

Where yearlings have the big advantage over fawns survivng a winter is an entire year of wisdom. They should have a slight edge when it comes to agility and watching out for predators.....but the topic of discussion hasn't been focused on that.

Interesting stuff corkdust.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

UP Hunter said:


> Cork Dust, I am a little confused about your point. Are you saying that a 9 month old deer and a 17 month old deer have the same body size? It is definitely the fawns that will be the first to die off in a bad winter. They can't reach the food that larger deer can nor can they navigate the deeper snow as well. They also don't have the ability to handle the cold without freezing as well.


We are discussing risk of winter-kill for fawns and yearlings; specifically those individuals that have overlapping surface area to volume ratios...which would mean they are nearly the same general size- a point lost on most of the critics. These would be big fawns and smaller yearlings, since all the detractors want to do is to judge age by size; not the actual risk determiner via application of Bergman's body rule-surace area to volume ratio. This is what drives convective and radiant heat loss. So, using your criteria how does their risk of death change to put the fawn at greater risk? If you go back and read that brief Ozoga authored D & D Hunting piece:John specifically states that fawns that are nutritionally stressed, barely surviving their fist Winter, don't evidence accelerated growth rates in subsequent years to "catch-up" I.e. they end-up as smaller deer in subsequent years. So, again, applying the criteria you describe what heightens the risk for a fawn, other than its low "rung" on the social structure ladder...?

Two things you will find if you go back and peruse through Ozoga and Lou Verme's work at the Cusino facility on nutrition and growth of deer, as it relates to Winter-Kill risk: 1.) High quality feed can "produce" antlers on male fawns by their first fall, not just nubs. What do you think these deer would look like in the fall woods on a strict size comparison basis? 2.) Pedicel surface area varies in direct proportion to nutritional status for males in their first year of life. A nutritionally challenged buck develops a smaller "patch" of pedicel cells to produce antlers from in future years...never expanding the pedicel area significantly if it receives better nutrition in subsequent years.

If you want to couch the argument in terms of body fat levels, remember that caloric intake in mammals is first shunted to organ and cell maintenance needs; followed by skeletal growth needs in immature deer; only then do excess calories consumed get stored as fat in or near muscle bundles and in bone marrow, followed by the liver cells, and finally as subcutaneous fat deposits. As a biologist, if you want to determine nutritional status for a dead deer in winter you look at fat stores inside the bone marrow of the femur, where red blood cells are produced.

Here is a simpler overview version of John and Lou's research:
http://www.woods-n-waternews.com/Ar...ous-fawns-grow-to-become-superior-adults.html

So, who do you think gets "plugged" in the fall in that pile of1.5YO "yearlings"? If you want to do the determination of who has the best chance of survival in terms of strict mass, then deer in the 80-90lb range and up will likely make it through a winter in the northern latitudes.

So to go back to the start:...elevated Winter-Kill risk doesn't just magically manifest itself at X number of days into a severe winter, or why the MDNR actually abandoned their old winter severity index tracking as a barometer. Winter nutrition via managed Public (State and Federal Patnership), Private Industrial Forests, and Private lands encompassing WDCs is key to getting deer back out on summer range in good condition. A "not way-out-of-whack" sex ratio is also a major contributor to enhancing future survival. 

Notice I never mentioned APRs?


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Cork Dust said:


> We are discussing risk of winter-kill for fawns and yearlings; specifically those individuals that have overlapping surface area to volume ratios...which would mean they are nearly the same general size- a point lost on most of the critics. These would be big fawns and smaller yearlings, since all the detractors want to do is to judge age by size; not the actual risk determiner via application of Bergman's body rule-surace area to volume ratio. This is what drives convective and radiant heat loss. So, using your criteria how does their risk of death change to put the fawn at greater risk? If you go back and read that brief Ozoga authored D & D Hunting piece:John specifically states that fawns that are nutritionally stressed, barely surviving their fist Winter, don't evidence accelerated growth rates in subsequent years to "catch-up" I.e. they end-up as smaller deer in subsequent years. So, again, applying the criteria you describe what heightens the risk for a fawn, other than its low "rung" on the social structure ladder...?
> 
> Two things you will find if you go back and peruse through Ozoga and Lou Verme's work at the Cusino facility on nutrition and growth of deer, as it relates to Winter-Kill risk: 1.) High quality feed can "produce" antlers on male fawns by their first fall, not just nubs. What do you think these deer would look like in the fall woods on a strict size comparison basis? 2.) Pedicel surface area varies in direct proportion to nutritional status for males in their first year of life. A nutritionally challenged buck develops a smaller "patch" of pedicel cells to produce antlers from in future years...never expanding the pedicel area significantly if it receives better nutrition in subsequent years.
> 
> ...


You make a lot of good points, and you can spin it any way you want, bu in the end you were still mistaken when you called a fawn a yearling? LOL


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

I my neck of the U.P. it is very rare to see the abnormally small, fawn during the fall or abnormally small yearling deer, either bucks or does. If they are born late, they just don't survive. Also, most of the late born fawns are caused when fawns or yearling does are bred, which is also rare in my area (big woods, non-ag). In my area, on a good year, we only see about .5 fawns per doe in Nov. After hard winters, that ratio is worse. The small, weak ones just don't even make it to fall as they fall to predators since they are easier to catch than more well developed deer. It's easy to tell the difference between a fawn winter killed deer and older ones if you can see the skull, lower jaw, or even hoofs. Like I said before, I have only seen one winter in my area that killed a massive number of adult deer (1997). Other than that, the vast majority of winter killed deer remains that I have found were fawns even after years when yearling numbers may have been higher than fawns.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Trophy Specialist said:


> You make a lot of good points, and you can spin it any way you want, bu in the end you were still mistaken when you called a fawn a yearling? LOL


 Here I thought I said that they had broadly similar risk of Winter-Kill with fawns where their surface area to volume ratios overlap, as well as that their degree of overlap with fawns is greater than the observer is able to detect by body size alone as a distinguishing criteria. But. since you have appointed yourself my official biographer, I'll defer to your "expertise". As I said earlier, the deer you call yearlings can be distinguished from fawns by tooth aging at 1.5YO or older. As a 'Trophy Specialist', I assume you already knew that...yet you didn't mention it in your definitive post on what weight range of deer constitutes a yearling and a fawn.

So how many of the 52 WDCs do you do a walk-through each spring to support your statements regarding Winter-kill impacts only acting on fawns?


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Cork Dust said:


> Here I thought I said that they had broadly similar risk of Winter-Kill with fawns where their surface area to volume ratios overlap, as well as that their degree of overlap with fawns is greater than the observer is able to detect by body size alone as a distinguishing criteria. But. since you have appointed yourself my official biographer, I'll defer to your "expertise". As I said earlier, the deer you call yearlings can be distinguished from fawns by tooth aging at 1.5YO or older. As a 'Trophy Specialist', I assume you already knew that...yet you didn't mention it in your definitive post on what weight range of deer constitutes a yearling and a fawn.
> 
> So how many of the 52 WDCs do you do a walk-through each spring to support your statements regarding Winter-kill impacts only acting on fawns?


This year, if it's like the past 20 years, I will likely log hundreds of miles of "boots on the ground" in various WDCs in the central U.P. My observations concur with about every study I've ever read on deer winter kill in the U.P. in that the vast majority of those moralities are fawns. 

Now in the rare event that a fawn and a yearling have the same body size, then yes I would agree that they would likely have similar winter survival rates. But in my area of the U.P. it would be rare for a yearling deer to be the size of even a large fawn, so that point is moot in the big scheme of things. .


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

DirtySteve said:


> I am going to take cork dusts side on this one as far as the body mass argument goes. If the body mass difference is 20-25 lbs it probably doesn't make a hill of beans difference.....especially if half or more that weight is added bone mass. Bone mass isn't adding warmth or nutritional value. His logic makes sense to me.
> 
> Where yearlings have the big advantage over fawns survivng a winter is an entire year of wisdom. They should have a slight edge when it comes to agility and watching out for predators.....but the topic of discussion hasn't been focused on that.
> 
> Interesting stuff corkdust.


We ought to be taking the deer' s side.
Weight and mass are not a detriment going into winter when on the plus side of the scale.
We know that.

On the yarding site of the highest death rate encountered ,the group I was with agreed (unscientifically )that those deer that could not reach the very high browse line were the ones most stressed prior to dying.
Making height ,and the ability to stand on hind legs to take advantage of it... the difference between browsing and starving. 
With fawns most vulnerable. Most dead were fawns.

Yes that discounts temperature in a severity index. Winter was a major player with snow causing yarding in thermal cover in the first place though. Freeze or starve , or both combined. Once skeletal reserves are pulled on too hard it's over. 
Yarding areas providing thermal cover are finite. As is the browse in them.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

One thing that I've noticed in recent years is that browse in the WDCs in my area is coming back big time. Since deer numbers plummeted it has given the yards a chance to regenerate like I've not seen in my life. Cedar is sprouting all over the place and even maple is regenerating like crazy, which was unheard of years ago when deer numbers were higher. Right now, the deer in my area have virtually unlimited browse as long as they can get to it. On top of that wolf and coyote numbers took a plunge last year due to distemper, however bear numbers are sky high, so that advantage for the deer may be negated.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Good to read of the browse volume T.S !


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

5 weeks and no update. The DNR’s wildlife budget must be real tight to not to be able to post an biweekly update.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Not good, the DNR has removed the Winter Severity Index Page. Either they are in the process of updating it or the budget won’t allow for data collection anymore.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

Luv2hunteup said:


> Not good, the DNR has removed the Winter Severity Index Page. Either they are in the process of updating it or the budget won’t allow for data collection anymore.


Not sure why they ever did a bi weekly update to the public anyway. Seems kind of like a bit of a time waste to report out so often. As long as they are collecting the data they need once or twice a season a season is plenty for a report out to us. It isn't like my knowledge of the situation bi weekly is affecting anything. There is nothing that irks me more at work than preparing for a report to people who do nothing with the information.....just because.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

DirtySteve said:


> Not sure why they ever did a bi weekly update to the public anyway. Seems kind of like a bit of a time waste to report out so often. As long as they are collecting the data they need once or twice a season a season is plenty for a report out to us. It isn't like my knowledge of the situation bi weekly is affecting anything. There is nothing that irks me more at work than preparing for a report to people who do nothing with the information.....just because.


I can understand that when you live where there is only a few weeks of winter and the worst day of winter is like a mild November day in the UP.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

stickbow shooter said:


> I would imagine you have found some nice sheds over the years , got any pics ?



















These are most of the sheds found, with the exception of a few more yearlings. Notice only two of these are a pair, which were found nearly 3/8s of a mile apart. 

The rest are bucks I located while searching that I was lucky enough to kill...eventually. Still working on a buck I found three years ago. I had in front of me fighting with another buck in the dark near scrape the second morning of the season...couldn't see enough of him to sort out who was who.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Snow Depth:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/michigan-snow-cover.htm

Great Lakes ice:
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/cur/glsea_cur.png

L & O


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## UP Hunter (Jan 24, 2000)

-10 here this morning


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

UP Hunter said:


> -10 here this morning


Not seeing the attraction...lol


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

I received this email today:
Thank you for your interest in the WSI. We obtained the data that we used to calculate the WSI through a website of the NOAA. Unfortunately, they recently made changes to their website and the data we used for the WSI is no longer available in the format that our system was designed to accept. We do not currently have the resources to investigate other data sources and design our system to accept a new data format so we had to stop publishing the weekly reports.
Sarah Mayhew, DNR

I guess I'm glad I got an answer, but baloney--you find the money to have someone come in and adapt your system to accept the free information(temperature, wind & snow depth ??) from NOAA.

L & O


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## jr28schalm (Mar 16, 2006)

Liver and Onions said:


> I received this email today:
> Thank you for your interest in the WSI. We obtained the data that we used to calculate the WSI through a website of the NOAA. Unfortunately, they recently made changes to their website and the data we used for the WSI is no longer available in the format that our system was designed to accept. We do not currently have the resources to investigate other data sources and design our system to accept a new data format so we had to stop publishing the weekly reports.
> Sarah Mayhew, DNR
> 
> ...


Pretty sad.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)




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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Liver and Onions said:


> I received this email today:
> Thank you for your interest in the WSI. We obtained the data that we used to calculate the WSI through a website of the NOAA. Unfortunately, they recently made changes to their website and the data we used for the WSI is no longer available in the format that our system was designed to accept. We do not currently have the resources to investigate other data sources and design our system to accept a new data format so we had to stop publishing the weekly reports.
> Sarah Mayhew, DNR
> 
> ...


Redirecting budget resources to CWD is a fact of life now. Cattle farmers spreading bTB across Zone 3 will not help matters.


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## jr28schalm (Mar 16, 2006)

Luv2hunteup said:


> Redirecting budget resources to CWD is a fact of life now. Cattle farmers spreading bTB across Zone 3 will not help matters.


Hope they don't cut field police..still could use another pair in my area


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

So now what? I guess the DNR is just going to guess about the severity of winters in their deer management scheme of things. They are once again living up to their nickname: Do Nothing Right!


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Trophy Specialist said:


> So now what? I guess the DNR is just going to guess about the severity of winters in their deer management scheme of things. They are once again living up to their nickname: Do Nothing Right!


$1 out of every $4 of the wildlife budget now goes to CWD related activities.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Luv2hunteup said:


> $1 out of every $4 of the wildlife budget now goes to CWD related activities.


And not one dollar of it is directed towards finding a real solution to CWD. All of it is being spent on monitoring, testing, meetings and bureaucracy.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

Liver and Onions said:


> I received this email today:
> Thank you for your interest in the WSI. We obtained the data that we used to calculate the WSI through a website of the NOAA. Unfortunately, they recently made changes to their website and the data we used for the WSI is no longer available in the format that our system was designed to accept. We do not currently have the resources to investigate other data sources and design our system to accept a new data format so we had to stop publishing the weekly reports.
> Sarah Mayhew, DNR
> 
> ...


This is probably something that would probably have to be addressed on next year's budget. It isnt like it is the dnr's fault that the program they were using was thwarted by a software upgrade. They were probably already using NOAA to begin with. 

Also. It doesn't say they aren't calculating data and continuing winter severity index.....It says they don't have the ability to do weekly generated reports. I would bet they are gathering some information. Maybe less data points and less often or whatever.


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## DirtySteve (Apr 9, 2006)

Trophy Specialist said:


> So now what? I guess the DNR is just going to guess about the severity of winters in their deer management scheme of things. They are once again living up to their nickname: Do Nothing Right!


Nowhere does it say they are doing nothing in that email. It says that they don't have the resources to make rewrite their software for automatic public reports.....at this time.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

DirtySteve said:


> This is probably something that would probably have to be addressed on next year's budget. It isnt like it is the dnr's fault that the program they were using was thwarted by a software upgrade. They were probably already using NOAA to begin with.
> 
> Also. It doesn't say they aren't calculating data and continuing winter severity index.....It says they don't have the ability to do weekly generated reports. I would bet they are gathering some information. Maybe less data points and less often or whatever.


At the January Far East Coalition meeting we were told the techs were still out checking snow delta measurements off Tilden and Sand ridge Roads. 

Russ Mason told me I would receive a full explanation. I take him at his word. 

He said he would also let me know why the Chronology of Bovine TB from 1975 was removed from the DNR emerging Disease Library.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Luv2hunteup said:


> *Russ Mason told me I would receive a full explanation. I take him at his word. *


A lot of people have made that mistake.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Trophy Specialist said:


> A lot of people have made that mistake.


After years of dealing with Russ I have no reason to doubt that he will do what he says. I may not like what he has to say but he has followed through on his commitments. 

What has he personally committed to do for you that he hasn’t followed through with?


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Luv2hunteup said:


> At the January Far East Coalition meeting we were told the techs were still out checking snow delta measurements off Tilden and Sand ridge Roads.
> 
> Russ Mason told me I would receive a full explanation. I take him at his word.
> 
> ...........


I sent an email to Sarah M. asking about WSI. Got my reply about 30 minutes later. You might want to send her an email asking about the TB Chronology chart.

L & O


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Please keep in mind how much of the Wildlife Division's manpower effort and financial resources are being directed toward the BKD outbreak and management. The radio collar study that just launched in the western UP was initially to begin in DMUs in the mid-peninsula section of the UP, changed to the border counties to assess the same thing: degree and scope of deer movement from summer habitat to Winter Deer Complexes (WDC), along with the added benefit of offering some snapshot of transborder deer movement with Wisconsin since BKD has already been detected within fifty miles of the Mi/Wi border.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Cork Dust said:


> Please keep in mind how much of the Wildlife Division's manpower effort and financial resources are being directed toward the BKD outbreak and management. The radio collar study that just launched in the western UP was initially to begin in DMUs in the mid-peninsula section of the UP, changed to the border counties to assess the same thing: degree and scope of deer movement from summer habitat to Winter Deer Complexes (WDC), along with the added benefit of offering some snapshot of transborder deer movement with Wisconsin since BKD has already been detected within fifty miles of the Mi/Wi border.


While those studies are important and needed, it will take years of data to get a decent understanding of deer migrations. Every year, depending on the winter and food availability, those winter deer movements vary a lot. If they just study it for one year, then the information gained could be of little value.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

The migration study is long overdue. There old tagging program did provide some data but it’s been at least 15 years since I have seen a deer yard tag. Most winter complexes should have been mapped out by now. The east end drafts were last on board.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

The snow keeps piling up a couple weeks past mid winter in the UP. I took a ride around Black Lake yesterday, snow has pretty well disappeared in the open field again.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)




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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Trophy Specialist said:


> While those studies are important and needed, it will take years of data to get a decent understanding of deer migrations. Every year, depending on the winter and food availability, those winter deer movements vary a lot. If they just study it for one year, then the information gained could be of little value.


What they intended to do initially was to trap a collar a large cohort of deer within a DMU and then track their migration dispersal for one or two years, then move to the next DMU and repeat. SCI was helping them with funding to bump the radio collar tag numbers up. I think this is something that sportsman (and women) would readily support and fund, had it been better communicated to the Public as they finished planning. Now, the clock is ticking and the focus will likely remain on the DMUs along the Wisconsin/Michigan border for the next few years. 

This article states 150 radio collars, I thought Terry Minzey said they were shooting for 250 at the last UPWDHWG meeting...
http://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-456671--,00.html


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Luv2hunteup said:


> View attachment 299370


What this representation does not capture well is rate of sublimation, resulting in a modeled overestimate of snow depths. The daytime temps. have been up in the 20F for over a week now, with temperatures this week forecast to be up in the low 40Fs.

The US Army Corps of Engineers developed a model the estimate when it could engage in ice breaking activities on the Great Lakes via the USCG ice breaking fleet's efforts with minimized cost expenditures for fuel and ship maintenance. The model factored-in the interval when incident sun angle was high enough to significantly rot the ice pack prior ice breaking activity- which resulted in a recommended start date of March 15th. The Spring Solstice this year is on March 20th...


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Luv2hunteup said:


> $1 out of every $4 of the wildlife budget now goes to CWD related activities.


This is also the type of info the PR firm has to get across to the public. 

Just wait until they really start testing in the counties surrounding the existing known CWD counties. 

There’s still a lot of Michigan deer hunters standing on the beach, marveling at how the ocean has completely receded, revealing big fish flopping around on the sand, unaware that a tsunami will soon be coming their way. 

We’re barely looking for CWD and finding it in prevalence rates that demonstrate CWD has been here for over a decade. 

On the safe side, let’s assume we’re going to find CWD in at least another 2 counties this year. That means major testing will likely be expanded to yet another half dozen counties. 

Let’s hope that we get the federal funding for testing. Soon.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

How does Wisconsin pay for their CWD testing? The last I looked, their license fees were about the same as Michigan's.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

This chart compares the amount of ice on the Great Lakes as of yesterday to the past 2 years.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/glcfs/compare_years/

current snow levels:

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/michigan-snow-cover.htm

L & O


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## Forest Meister (Mar 7, 2010)

FWIW. Tuesday was warm and sunny in the EUP with the temperature in the Sault breaking a 123 year old record. It was a couple degrees cooler at my house with the temperature here only reaching the internal temperature of my refrigerator. Anyhow, the Mrs. wanted to get out of the house so we took a ride down toward DeTour for dinner. What I saw along the way should encourage folks that hunt the EUP......... fields anywhere near wintering complexes had limited snow cover and were well populated with whitetails filling their bellies with dried clover. 
This is the second year in a row the snow has been such that deer have moved freely and foraged in the fields during the winter. Yes, we could still get four or five weeks of "normal" winter conditions but the ten day forecast looks very, very good. 

The Meister predicts survival comparable to last winter followed by an outstanding fawn crop. FM


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

We have been sledding up in the Keweenaw and Huron Mountain the past couple of weeks and there are deer moving around even in those areas this year.

Here we are on Brockway Mountain south of Copper Harbor 2 weeks ago:


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

Love the Keweenaw wildthing, I always kid the wife about moving there. At least she thinks I am kidding


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## Forest Meister (Mar 7, 2010)

wildthing said:


> We have been sledding up in the Keweenaw and Huron Mountain the past couple of weeks and there are deer moving around even in those areas this year.
> 
> Here we are on Brockway Mountain south of Copper Harbor 2 weeks ago:
> 
> View attachment 300224


Move those snowmobiles out of the picture and you title it "Greetings Earthlings". FM


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Forest Meister said:


> FWIW. Tuesday was warm and sunny in the EUP with the temperature in the Sault breaking a 123 year old record. It was a couple degrees cooler at my house with the temperature here only reaching the internal temperature of my refrigerator. Anyhow, the Mrs. wanted to get out of the house so we took a ride down toward DeTour for dinner. What I saw along the way should encourage folks that hunt the EUP......... fields anywhere near wintering complexes had limited snow cover and were well populated with whitetails filling their bellies with dried clover.
> This is the second year in a row the snow has been such that deer have moved freely and foraged in the fields during the winter. Yes, we could still get four or five weeks of "normal" winter conditions but the ten day forecast looks very, very good.
> 
> The Meister predicts survival comparable to last winter followed by an outstanding fawn crop. FM


Looking good in that corner of the UP.


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## Perferator (Oct 18, 2003)

Our herds are looking healthy in spite of local nights being subzero for an entire month. On Larks Lake I recorded 2 nights going colder than -40. I was interviewed by 7&4’s Connor Hansen for that exploit
-not to severe other than frigid nights.


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## mattawanhunter (Oct 30, 2011)

Talked to my Yooper buddy and he said the deer heard is in pretty good shape, he sees a lot of territory in Dickinson County. He says the tell tale sign is sick looking furry faced fawns and almost all look good, he's only seen one "fuzzy faced" sickly looking Fawn!


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Perferator said:


> Our herds are looking healthy in spite of local nights being subzero for an entire month. On Larks Lake I recorded 2 nights going colder than -40. ..............


I looked at the weather records from the airport in Pellston and saw some low numbers, but nothing like what you are reporting. What were the approximate dates where the nights were subzero for a month straight ?

https://www.wunderground.com/histor...statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

If you click on the month and year you can go back to look at Dec. 2017 high and low temps also.

L & O


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## Perferator (Oct 18, 2003)

Liver and Onions said:


> I looked at the weather records from the airport in Pellston and saw some low numbers, but nothing like what you are reporting. What were the approximate dates where the nights were subzero for a month straight ?
> 
> https://www.wunderground.com/histor...statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=
> 
> ...


First, Just because I am not an official weather station doesnt mean it wasnt -40 here. Pellston being 10mi away had -31 that night. The very next night we had the same. It was no fluke And yes we did have subzero a lot, what we experience here is that phenomena when you live in a bowl with hills all around. The cold here is locally brutal in low temps. January into Feb was brutal.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Perferator said:


> First, Just because I am not an official weather station doesnt mean it wasnt -40 here. Pellston being 10mi away had -31 that night. The very next night we had the same. It was no fluke And yes we did have subzero a lot, what we experience here is that phenomena when you live in a bowl with hills all around. The cold here is locally brutal in low temps. January into Feb was brutal.


I never said that you weren't -40. My question was regarding your claim that your area had an entire month where the local nights were subzero. The Pellston airport 10 miles away with very accurate instruments does not support your claim. The airport records support the idea that your area had a lot of cold weather for a stretch of 50+ days from late Dec. to about mid-February. 18 out of 49 nights were subzero in Pellston during that time frame. Looking at the 3 months--December-February--the average temperatures were a bit below normal, but not all that far off the mark.
Do you expect any winter kill deer in your area this year ? Most reports are that very few winter kill deer will be found this spring in the NLP.

L & O


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

I took a ride around the Cedarville, Hessel and Pine River winter deer complexes today on the main roads. Deer are moving about freely. Snow is much heavier as you move north above M-28. Surprising few road kills which could mean a few different things, few deer or they are widely dispersed. I also talked with a MSP trooper, he told me there has not been a lot of call outs for road killed deer.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Luv2hunteup said:


> ..........
> 
> Russ Mason told me I would receive a full explanation. I take him at his word.
> 
> He said he would also let me know why the Chronology of Bovine TB from 1975 was removed from the DNR emerging Disease Library.


Did R.M. ever get back with you regarding the W.S.I ?

L & O


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

wildthing said:


> Oh Man!! If this forecast is accurate, we could get close to 2 feet of snow this weekend:
> 
> 10-Day Forecast 10-Day


I happened to have the weather channel on when I saw your post. It could shape up to be a big one. They said it could be one for the record books. We will be stockpiling sap, whiskey and beer so we don’t have yo leave the sugar shack except to get more wood.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)




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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I happened to have the weather channel on when I saw your post. It could shape up to be a big one. They said it could be one for the record books. We will be stockpiling sap, whiskey and beer so we don’t have yo leave the sugar shack except to get more wood.


Good idea Mike - At least you'll be able to keep the beer cold - and if you run out of jars and bottles, you can fill those empty Crown bottles.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Sugar shack supplies. Preppers.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

You guys have a lot of patience up there...I don't know how you do it....I do like how you stock up though..


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## Forest Meister (Mar 7, 2010)

sniper said:


> You guys have a lot of patience up there...I don't know how you do it....I do like how you stock up though..


Any place this good needs weather this bad for this long just keep the riffraff out. FM


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Terry Minzey came to our Coalition meeting yesterday. He did say deer are starting to get weak in some of the northern winter complexes. I’m hoping this storm system that’s coming is much weaker than forecast. Deer are at the tipping point, it could get bad.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

wildthing said:


> Oh Man!! If this forecast is accurate, we could get close to 2 feet of snow this weekend:


Are your high school baseball and softball teams still undefeated ?

L & O


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Luv2hunteup said:


> Terry Minzey came to our Coalition meeting yesterday. He did say deer are starting to get weak in some of the northern winter complexes. I’m hoping this storm system that’s coming is much weaker than forecast. Deer are at the tipping point, it could get bad.


I pulled 4 trail cameras yesterday AM, before the snow got packy and started sticking in balls under my feet on the snowshoe crampons. I am going through 267 photos this morning. One bear rump shot taken in the last four days, one fox, no wolves, one feral dog, and a lot of deer. We have about 90-95% snow cover, with southern facing slopes starting to open, either thinly coated or patchy grass spots. Deer are moving frequently during daylight.

This weekend's storm looks pretty ominous...

I did see two small deer following a doe up a hill that I assumed were her fawns. One looked to have been attacked or in poor nutritional state; hair on back and hind-quarter I could see via the binocs. was all tufted-up. I couldn't see any wounds or blood. It was having a very hard time getting up the hill, switching to quartering uphill sideways. I decided to turn away rather than pursue them and add to their stress load.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

clock98 said:


> Does anybody know if there has been any snow melt in northern luce county yet?


Its melting but the seasonal roads are still closed. I talked to one of my wife's friends who drover over to Ashland to trailer a horse back to Marquette. Deer were all over the open shoulders looking for food and salt.

We are a long way away from green-up.


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

wildthing said:


> Oh Man!! If this forecast is accurate, we could get close to 2 feet of snow this weekend:
> 
> 10-Day Forecast 10-Day


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Luv2hunteup said:


> Terry Minzey came to our Coalition meeting yesterday. He did say deer are starting to get weak in some of the northern winter complexes. *I’m hoping this storm system that’s coming is much weaker than forecast. Deer are at the tipping point, it could get bad*.


X2 - Keeping our fingers crossed...


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## buckman66 (Nov 3, 2004)

wildthing said:


> X2 - Keeping our fingers crossed...


Found a doe fawn last weak too weak to stand from starvation. This was in Iron county. If this storm hits it will be bad.


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

Doesn't sound very good for the deer up there.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)




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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

I put a little browse at ground level for them yesterday. A big sugar maple that hasn't been producing much sap in recent years....a couple other maples that were shading out a small food plot...some others in travel areas where they can get to it if we get heavy snows this week. Not much...but every little bit helps. We got about an inch or so of heavy wet snow overnight.


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## Perferator (Oct 18, 2003)

Luv2hunteup said:


> View attachment 307183
> 
> 
> View attachment 307184
> ...


This looks very similar to our WC forecast. Who’da thunk. Makes one appreciate other years when spring was an actual improvement to weather conditions. 

Our deer here are quite healthy, strong and finding food sources to help with this weather.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

I'm scheduled to go to my property in the central U.P. April 24-26 to work on food plots (need to disc and replant 6 acres of plots). There is about 12" of snow there now. Think I should reschedule for mid-May?


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

This....


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Here in the SELP: 58 yesterday. 42 overnight. Currently 74. 57 in the forecast for tomorrow. Then cold and rainy for a few days. The early garden vegetables are planted.

L & O


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

stickbow shooter said:


> The more I read, the more I want to go live at my camp. No electricity, no phone or internet .Sounding good, become a minimalist.


Ted Kaczynski said it makes you a little crazy. Lol


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> *New solar minimum could change the world economy*
> 
> *http://ktar.com/story/1995130/new-solar-minimum-could-change-the-world-economy/*
> 
> ...


So perhaps we should start belching out greenhouse gases to counteract the cooling affect. Fire up those coal burning plants and stoke them to the max!


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

stickbow shooter said:


> The more I read, the more I want to go live at my camp. No electricity, no phone or internet .Sounding good, become a minimalist.


Stick that's the route the unibomber took...lol...The outcome wasn't positive...

Dang piney beat me to it!...


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Trophy Specialist said:


> So perhaps we should start belching out greenhouse gases to counteract the cooling affect. Fire up those coal burning plants and stoke them to the max!


That’s what I’m talking about. If it’s so cold, we should all leave our gas guzzling trucks idling overnight, so they stay warm. 

We should encourage Al Gore to fly in even more private jets and take even bigger limos to European climate summits, before being snowed out.


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

sniper said:


> And us Slp guys have been called wackos!....Lol....


True Sniper, but .... even with lake effect whiteout conditions....we haven't had a single 50-car pileup on any of our freeways .... ever! Of course our only freeway is I-75 from St Ignace to the Soo.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> *New solar minimum could change the world economy*
> 
> *http://ktar.com/story/1995130/new-solar-minimum-could-change-the-world-economy/*
> 
> ...


I appreciate your type choice: this piece is really important...but, just not for the point you are trying to infer.

I was interested right up to the point where he wrote "many" rather than "most"....then it became evident that it was warranted to search-out the credentials of this "climate expert".
Why, what did I find? An individual trained in broadcasting who works in broadcasting with a keen interest and understanding of ASTRONOMY, who produces programs and offers commentary on astronomy and astronomic events for *public* education.

http://drsky.com/about/

Scientist? No, not really. Climate science researcher? NOPE! Recognized by NASA as an astronomy educator? Yes. Does he serve on any NASA scientific boards, commissions, research groups or teams involved with climate research or climate modeling for predictive perposes? NOPE! Does he understand that sun-spot activity influences weather patterns on Earth? Yes!Would I stake my financial future by investing based on this piece, authored by Steven Kate's group? NOPE!

I know a plumber who is a really good fly fisherman, he can catch fish in a water spill on the kitchen counter top. I do not seek his counsel when considering scientific data on the Great Lakes. I have a basic understanding of electricity and have wired my duck boat, garage, and a sauna and outbuilding at duck camp. I don't advertise as a professional electrician, nor do I offer opinion to others on specifics within that profession.

Science matters! Evidence matters! Expertise matters even more, particularly when making sweeping statements and predictions about the future of Earth's climate.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

Cork Dust said:


> .........
> I was interested right up to the point where he wrote "many" rather than "most"....then it became evident that it was warranted to search-out the credentials of this "climate expert".
> Why, what did I find? An individual trained in broadcasting who works in broadcasting with a keen interest and understanding of ASTRONOMY, who produces programs and offers commentary on astronomy and astronomic events for *public* education.
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting something that was actually useful. Some people excel in publishing fake news.

L & O


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

wildthing said:


> True Sniper, but .... even with lake effect whiteout conditions....we haven't had a single 50-car pileup on any of our freeways .... ever! Of course our only freeway is I-75 from St Ignace to the Soo.


Tommy Casperson was pushing hard for a four-lane Federal highway to run west to Marquette. I came-up during a preliminary meeting for the Iron Belle Trail initiative. 

Tommy C. is off to "Washeringtown", DC to offer his expertise to the DJT administration. Why? Per his statement, he is term limited in Michigan, having served in both the House and Senate for as long as he could dupe folks into voting for him. He now feels he can offer his "expertise" to the current administration. Just one more "swamp denizen" in search of better health benefits and a pension for life.


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Cork Dust said:


> I appreciate your type choice: this piece is really important...but, just not for the point you are trying to infer.
> 
> I was interested right up to the point where he wrote "many" rather than "most"....then it became evident that it was warranted to search-out the credentials of this "climate expert".
> Why, what did I find? An individual trained in broadcasting who works in broadcasting with a keen interest and understanding of ASTRONOMY, who produces programs and offers commentary on astronomy and astronomic events for *public* education.
> ...


You’re in luck! If you are a stickler for credentials (Al Gore and Hollywood celebrities excluded) then we have the former senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s take on the whole “man made” theory. 
http://www.drroyspencer.com/my-global-warming-skepticism-for-dummies/


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

We picked-up about 12-14" over near the fish hatchery on the southeast side of MQT. The Marquette official totals will be from the weather station site in Negaunee, or the Marquette Airport site, both well inland and away from the slight moderating effect of the lakeshore. Superior is a frothy mass of slush and little snow/ice chunks. When the melt comes, the stream temps. are going to dip for every watershed that did not have significant open ground within it.

If you fish spring steelhead, that would be something to consider regarding where to go for awhile...until June.


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## Trophy Specialist (Nov 30, 2001)

Cork Dust said:


> I appreciate your type choice: this piece is really important...but, just not for the point you are trying to infer.
> 
> I was interested right up to the point where he wrote "many" rather than "most"....then it became evident that it was warranted to search-out the credentials of this "climate expert".
> Why, what did I find? An individual trained in broadcasting who works in broadcasting with a keen interest and understanding of ASTRONOMY, who produces programs and offers commentary on astronomy and astronomic events for *public* education.
> ...


So does that mean that I should cancel the tire fire I was planning?


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

wildthing said:


> True Sniper, but .... even with lake effect whiteout conditions....we haven't had a single 50-car pileup on any of our freeways .... ever! Of course our only freeway is I-75 from St Ignace to the Soo.


But Yoppers driving 2 laner’s are responsible for one of the planets finest confections!


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> You’re in luck! If you are a stickler for credentials (Al Gore and Hollywood celebrities excluded) then we have the former senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s take on the whole “man made” theory.
> http://www.drroyspencer.com/my-global-warming-skepticism-for-dummies/


Nice conflation, my disgust and disappointment is centered around your routine agenda, particularly since the post had, and will not have *ANY impact on* winter severity- you, know, the actual thread topic- in the winter of 2017-2018. 

MOST is a word that underscores consensus...achieved by this thing called plurality. Our local weather guy doesn't embrace climate change either, he is a genuinely nice guy, but I don't agree with his perspective in light of the overall World-level view on the subject. You know, the whole Globalism versus Isolationism debate...keep working on your moat!


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Trophy Specialist said:


> So does that mean that I should cancel the tire fire I was planning?


By all means, burn away, after you erect and occupy your tallest tree stand directly downwind to fully admire its effects!


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Liver and Onions said:


> Thanks for posting something that was actually useful. Some people excel in publishing fake news.
> 
> L & O


Actually, the sadder "truth" is the inability of so many to be able to discern the difference!


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Cork Dust said:


> Nice conflation, my disgust and disappointment is centered around your routine agenda, particularly since the post had, and will not have *ANY impact on* winter severity- you, know, the actual thread topic- in the winter of 2017-2018.
> 
> MOST is a word that underscores consensus...achieved by this thing called plurality. Our local weather guy doesn't embrace climate change either, he is a genuinely nice guy, but I don't agree with his perspective in light of the overall World-level view on the subject. You know, the whole Globalism versus Isolationism debate...keep working on your moat!


You’re in luck again!

*Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis*

*https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...tists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/amp/*

Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed _Organization Studies_. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> You’re in luck again!
> 
> *Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis*
> 
> ...



Okay, as loong as you insist: Please review how many dissection's and analyses of Roy Spencer's analysis refuted his meta analysis.

You need to type in a larger more conspicuous font, that way we ALL know your level of passion, and inability to consider that International Conspiracies are frequently non-existent, you know: no world order, no illuminati, no Santy Claus! Yeah, I typed the only important one in capitol letters!


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Cork Dust said:


> Okay, as loong as you insist: Please review how many dissection's and analyses of Roy Spencer's analysis refuted his meta analysis.
> 
> You need to type in a larger more conspicuous font, that way we ALL know your level of passion, and inability to consider that International Conspiracies are frequently non-existent, you know: no world order, no illuminati, no Santy Claus! Yeah, I typed the only important one in capitol letters!


Greenpeace founder-
_WHY I AM A CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTIC_
_https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/why-i-am-a-climate-change-skeptic_


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> Greenpeace founder-
> _WHY I AM A CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTIC_
> _https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/why-i-am-a-climate-change-skeptic_


You actually don't want to know what I thing of Greepeace or Greenpeace sponsored efforts to do *ANYTHING*...one of the top three worthless organizaitons on the planet.

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

Can we get back to reality now?


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

The bottom line for this whole scam has been about money and control. It’s always about money and controlling the money. 

*How Money Changes Climate Debate*

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-money-changes-climate-debate/

“It's like guerilla warfare; all you can hope for is to stay [in the debate] long enough for people to wake up," said Richard Lindzen, a *professor emeritus of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute*, who said he believes think tanks have "relatively little" influence over the climate debate.

Environmental groups that urge strong action on climate change, he said, "*want power; they want influence. The more they can frighten people, the more influence they have. ... It's always been a vehicle for control."*


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

sniper said:


> You guys have a lot of patience up there...I don't know how you do it....I do like how you stock up though..


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> The bottom line for this whole scam has been about money and control. It’s always about money and controlling the money.
> 
> *How Money Changes Climate Debate*
> 
> ...


Normally, I am an Ocham's Razor kind of scientist. For the deniers, dug-in like ticks:

"Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticize any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?"

https://skepticalscience.com/


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Throughout history, those who question religious dogma have often been the target of a silencing campaign. “Man made climate change”, being a new religion, cannot tolerate those pointing out other legitimate explanations. 

There’s nothing to add to why these storms are normal, along with 20-100 year long weather patterns. Either you can admit that the solar system is dynamic or you can’t. No need pulling the mule to the water. 

So I’ll leave you with the direction the religion is moving- 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43773650

*US lawyer sets himself on fire in climate protest*

A prominent US lawyer has died after setting himself on fire in a New York park in a protest against climate change.

The remains of David Buckel, 60, were found in Prospect Park in Brooklyn. 

In a suicide note found nearby, Mr Buckel wrote that he had immolated himself using fossil fuel to symbolise what he said was the damage human beings were doing to the Earth. 

He said most people now breathed bad air and many died prematurely.


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## Liver and Onions (Nov 24, 2000)

For the nearly 2 years this thread has been about the "Winter Severity Index" that the DNR published. Back around Jan 1 they discontinued doing that but we kept the thread alive discussing the current weather conditions and the deer heard. 
Now a person has decided to steer this into a world climate thread. Why here ? Why not post that information in Sound Off or the Political forums ? 

L & O


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Liver and Onions said:


> For the nearly 2 years this thread has been about the "Winter Severity Index" that the DNR published. Back around Jan 1 they discontinued doing that but we kept the thread alive discussing the current weather conditions and the deer heard.
> Now a person has decided to steer this into a world climate thread. Why here ? Why not post that information in Sound Off or the Political forums ?
> 
> L & O


Because there are some experts saying you better get used to more late storms like this, especially in the UP.

If there’s a reader debating buying land in the UP, it’s something to consider. Summers are typically short enough up there.

But I’ll leave some to ponder how storms like this are still happening. I won’t bother you anymore.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> Throughout history, those who question religious dogma have often been the target of a silencing campaign. “Man made climate change”, being a new religion, cannot tolerate those pointing out other legitimate explanations.
> 
> There’s nothing to add to why these storms are normal, along with 20-100 year long weather patterns. Either you can admit that the solar system is dynamic or you can’t. No need pulling the mule to the water.
> 
> ...


Yes, again, factual basis to conclude that the acts of one speaks for all...got it!

To appeal to your near-terminal paranoid side:

Ya' got me: here is the TRUTH. This IS an International conspiracy, with communist China as the behind-the-scenes influencer and core conspiracy driver. They currently have the World's leading solar panel technology and the most cost-effective production for solar units. They seek to further refine this technology, taking advantage of their still growing trade surplus with the U.S. by propping-up the U.S. dollar's international value, using their vast stash of dollars to purchase fossil fuels contracts from any regime not favored by the U.S. that is an oil and gas producer, while leveraging the fake science and World consensus on Global Climate change as a mankind enhanced (Notice I didn't say caused?) phenomena. Thus they hope to corner the global market on solar power production, tie-up vast reserves of fossil fuels, while converting their domestic fuel energy production industry over to energy efficiency not for domestic consumption, but to export to the world market. By hording these stores of fossil fuels they don't actually intend to use, they make sure the associated natural gas never makes it onto the world market...how clever of them! They are also using the North Korean crisis to simply distract DJT, having successfully discerned that he cannot focus on more than one international crisis at a time. Now they are free to drive the world to bankruptcy, converting to technologies that are totally unnecessary for climate stabilization.

We, led by what remains of our current administration's remaining senior cabinet and advisory level staffers and some congressional members, realize this, develop a shrewd co-opting strategy focused on competing directly with them in the solar market to blunt their growth, becoming a World exporter of natural gas to both the developing and developed countries, hold the US dollar's rise in check(Larry Kudlow is furious, since this blunts he efforts to support and grow 'KING Dollar'!) while still enabling it to both serve as the World's base currency, but also enabling US exports to thrive and expand, defeating those nasty Chi-communists and their proxy, North Korea, who so desperately needs a cheap source of power to hold-off domestic revolt, they convert their nuclear technology via use of French-style reactors, forcing them to dismantle their warheads and redirect their research efforts .

Obama discussed this with the present-elect...and then left to go have a beer with "Joe the Plumber", knowing that a man smarter than all the generals would remember to bring this up when he met with his new staff and cabinet after picking them!

This is kinda like David Allen Coe's attempt to write the perfect country song:

https://www.bing.com/search?q=david...s=n&sk=&cvid=f12e7359f85b4243a56ac4e36967b996

Dang it! The plow just went by!! Time to go dig-out a bit and assess how much more has fallen...


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> Because there are some experts saying you better get used to more late storms like this, especially in the UP.
> 
> If there’s a reader debating buying land in the UP, it’s something to consider. Summers are typically short enough up there.
> 
> But I’ll leave some to ponder how storms like this are still happening. I won’t bother you anymore.


Well, around three more inches since I snowblowed at 7:00AM, with the wind still blowing northeast with some north in it. More lake effect to come over the course of the next dozen hours or so...until the wind falls away and shifts off the lake.

To tie Pinefarm's comment into both the Global Climate Change model and how that relates to deer habitat, survival, and winter severity. I was in attendance at one of the UP Winter Habitat Work Group meetings when the MDNR had a climate change biologist in to speak and discuss their forecasts as they related to habitat, habitat changes, and long-term points of focus for management efforts, both for the State and the UP.

There were two comments that stuck with me: 1.)Under the current Climate Change Model, climatic oscillations are predicted to increase: Temperature extremes- higher highs and lower lows on a seasonal basis. Humidity changes- southern tier counties will trend generally toward warmer moister summers, with more lake effect type snow events, which may or may not offset general declines in seasonal snow for system events coming into the Great Lakes. Dry zones will get drier, most zones wetter. 2.)The U.P. and northern lower peninsula winter habitat complex array is at significant overall risk because many of the species that make-up Winter Deer Complexes will likely suffer as conditions advance, particularly should the extremes become more pronounced in both duration and frequency.


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

Pic from Marionette-Menonomiee YMCA..


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> Because there are some experts saying you better get used to more late storms like this, especially in the UP.
> 
> If there’s a reader debating buying land in the UP, it’s something to consider. Summers are typically short enough up there.
> 
> But I’ll leave some to ponder how storms like this are still happening. I won’t bother you anymore.


I couldn’t agree more. The UP is the only disease free zone in Michigan. You’ll have to have your head examined to buy land in any county that has CWD or surrounding counties for that matter. Recreational land will go south fast now that you are advised to not eat venison without having it tested first in a large portion of the south central LP. 

The UP has the best buck to doe ratio, disease free and the highest buck age of all 3 zones. We lose some deer to predators and weather but at least you don’t have to worry about consuming folded prions from your venison or from someone else who chooses to share prion laden sausage at camp.


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## stickbow shooter (Dec 19, 2010)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I couldn’t agree more. The UP is the only disease free zone in Michigan. You’ll have to have your head examined to buy land in any county that has CWD or surrounding counties for that matter. Recreational land will go south fast now that you are advised to not eat venison without having it tested first in a large portion of the south central LP.
> 
> The UP has the best buck to doe ratio, disease free and the highest buck age of all 3 zones. We lose some deer to predators and weather but at least you don’t have to worry about consuming folded prions from your venison or from someone else who chooses to share prion laden sausage at camp.


Wish I could like this one 100 times.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I couldn’t agree more. The UP is the only disease free zone in Michigan. You’ll have to have your head examined to buy land in any county that has CWD or surrounding counties for that matter. Recreational land will go south fast now that you are advised to not eat venison without having it tested first in a large portion of the south central LP.
> 
> The UP has the best buck to doe ratio, disease free and the highest buck age of all 3 zones. We lose some deer to predators and weather but at least you don’t have to worry about consuming folded prions from your venison or from someone else who chooses to share prion laden sausage at camp.


Friends that own land there still like it.
Despite brainworm...

If warming trend means more snow due to less lake ice , it has been suggested the warmer trend hints of snow becoming rain as trend goes on.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

https://quod.lib.umich.edu/m/mjs/12333712.0003.008?view=text;rgn=main


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I couldn’t agree more. The UP is the only disease free zone in Michigan. You’ll have to have your head examined to buy land in any county that has CWD or surrounding counties for that matter. Recreational land will go south fast now that you are advised to not eat venison without having it tested first in a large portion of the south central LP.
> 
> The UP has the best buck to doe ratio, disease free and the highest buck age of all 3 zones. We lose some deer to predators and weather but at least you don’t have to worry about consuming folded prions from your venison or from someone else who chooses to share prion laden sausage at camp.


I wish I could share your optimissm, but I live and hunt much closer to Wisconsin. Or, why Terry Minzey et al. decided to initiate the annual deer movement mapping effort for DMUs in the western portion of the peninsula, when it was initially designated to start in the central UP. CWD exists within 30miles of the western UP.

http://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-456671--,00.html

Thanks for the reminder though on thoroughly checking the origins of all venison sausage offers...


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Waif said:


> https://quod.lib.umich.edu/m/mjs/12333712.0003.008?view=text;rgn=main


I have a lot of questions regarding the validity of the author's conclusions.

One point, temperature increase is projected to occur on an annual basis. Lake effect precipitation that falls as snow, returns to the body of origin at about a <70% proportion of the moisture withdrawn from source water that falls on the land mass. This is a calculation made from current seasonal temperature range extremes and modes(Mode= numeric middle of the precipitation range). Model projections indicate that latitudinal temperatures will increase(This is what the authors project in the shift of lake effect snow as the dominant winter precipitation, as well as the eventual shift to lake effect rain.) The data I saw, as well as hydrologic monitoring studies based on changes(elevations) in summer temperature range indicate that water bodies trend toward lower elevation levels. As this advances, the Great Lakes are projected to recede, exposing more of the now inundated land mass. Two things happen as a consequence of this progression: 1.)The extent of the inland zone influenced by lake effect precipitation diminishes as the water body's surface area declines. 2.)The increased surface area of the land mass evaporates more of the event precipitation, either as sublimation during winter when that precipitation is snow, or from rain in all other seasons which falls on a drier landscape, accelerating this cycle until equilibrium is again achieved in the water budget for the water body in question. 

Any large scale forestry practices that alter the tree canopy surface area(ie decreasing it) across the UP and NLP accelerate this process, whether they are driven by market, access condition changes that increase timbering duration, or disease increase. Since more open ground would sequentially be exposed to direct precipitation, runoff increases as soil absorption declines. More suspended sediment is contained in that runoff, since water droplet size increases now that droplets are not being broken-up or deflected off overhead leaf canopy, branches, and tree limbs and trunks. This results in increasing water body temperatures as more of the suspended matter flows into the Great Lakes and absorbs more radiant energy due to concentration increases in the water column, particularly during all seasons but winter, for however long its shortened duration and intensity is.

This shortened winter period lowers decline in both surface water temperature as well as duration of isothermal conditions in fall and spring, sequentially resulting in a warmer Great Lakes, as well as a warmer surrounding geography.

This process moves to support a seasonally warmer land mass, as well as one that becomes sequentially drier until climate resets around an equilibrium point, which induces a period of homeostasis until altered by Man or Nature(Geologic upheaval, ice age, continental drift,etc).


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Luv2hunteup said:


> I couldn’t agree more. The UP is the only disease free zone in Michigan. You’ll have to have your head examined to buy land in any county that has CWD or surrounding counties for that matter. Recreational land will go south fast now that you are advised to not eat venison without having it tested first in a large portion of the south central LP.
> 
> The UP has the best buck to doe ratio, disease free and the highest buck age of all 3 zones. We lose some deer to predators and weather but at least you don’t have to worry about consuming folded prions from your venison or from someone else who chooses to share prion laden sausage at camp.


You mean the only zone where disease hasn’t been found, yet. There’s a feeling that with all the migration, it could be there but there’s been inadequate testing. There’s CWD in Wisconsin that’s about 30 miles away. 


Guys still mainly hunt closer to home. Time is money. More and more guys who have the money in the SLP are looking south for a lease that’s close by, instead of the 6-8 hour plus drive to the place that can snowed in by November 15 and doesn’t melt until biting fly season, which may be June. 

The UP now has less than 25,000 bow hunters. My DMU has more hunters and will have more hunters 5 years from now, even If CWD is confirmed in wild deer. 

The 3 CWD DMU’s have as many hunters as the UP combined they kill 30% more deer. Their 2 year old bucks have bigger racks than many 4 year olds in the UP. 

The cost of a CWD test will still be cheaper than a round trip of gas to the UP. And a guy can’t drive to the UP to do habitat improvements, after work in the Summer. 

The rate the UP is losing hunters, there could be less than 40,000 deer hunters in the UP, in all seasons by 2025. 

When CWD is confirmed up there, there won’t be enough hunters to take care of it. The Yoopers are going to need more wolves. Lol


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

Cork Dust said:


> I wish I could share your optimissm, but I live and hunt much closer to Wisconsin. Or, why Terry Minzey et al. decided to initiate the annual deer movement mapping effort for DMUs in the western portion of the peninsula, when it was initially designated to start in the central UP. CWD exists within 30miles of the western UP.
> 
> http://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-456671--,00.html
> 
> Thanks for the reminder though on thoroughly checking the origins of all venison sausage offers...


Right. With the deer yards, CWD in the UP would be at staggering prevalence rates in 20 years.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> Right. With the deer yards, CWD in the UP will be at staggering prevalence rates in 20 years.


This EXACTLY what Terry Minzey and Bill Scullon have said at several UPHWG meetings when CWD incidence reports downstate began increasing with resulting increase in its occurrence in the discussions. 

Terry was pretty frank, he essentially said, deer hunting will likely be banned rather than managed as a wost case scenario management approach!


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Cork Dust said:


> I have a lot of questions regarding the validity of the author's conclusions.
> 
> One point, temperature increase is projected to occur on an annual basis. Lake effect precipitation that falls as snow, returns to the body of origin at about a <70% proportion of the moisture withdrawn from source water that falls on the land mass. This is a calculation made from current seasonal temperature range extremes and modes(Mode= numeric middle of the precipitation range). Model projections indicate that latitudinal temperatures will increase(This is what the authors project in the shift of lake effect snow as the dominant winter precipitation, as well as the eventual shift to lake effect rain.) The data I saw, as well as hydrologic monitoring studies based on changes(elevations) in summer temperature range indicate that water bodies trend toward lower elevation levels. As this advances, the Great Lakes are projected to recede, exposing more of the now inundated land mass. Two things happen as a consequence of this progression: 1.)The extent of the inland zone influenced by lake effect precipitation diminishes as the water body's surface area declines. 2.)The increased surface area of the land mass evaporates more of the event precipitation, either as sublimation during winter when that precipitation is snow, or from rain in all other seasons which falls on a drier landscape, accelerating this cycle until equilibrium is again achieved in the water budget for the water body in question.
> 
> ...


Questions? Certainly. A good article should leave us with one or two.

A lot of water surface in relation to U.P. land mass.
Even given greater land mass (again) the volume of water would dominate a mass competition. Kind of unique with the U.P. with water so many compass points from it.
Superior country a unique niche within that uniqueness for example, and it's Northern reaches well watered. A future rain forest? Not likely in our time.

Jet stream ,predominant wind ,and other variances would factor too in effect on soil and surface water. 
Perhaps lichenous studies over time can note trending change? 
Farther North water lines stains show different fluctuation over the years quite clearly on rock ,but are human influenced/controls of water that cause most of it's fluctuation after spring run off.

Delta specie advance and recede seems more dependent on water level ,than land height ,though they are entwined.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Pinefarm2015 said:


> You mean the only zone where disease hasn’t been found, yet. There’s a feeling that with all the migration, it could be there but there’s been inadequate testing. There’s CWD in Wisconsin that’s about 30 miles away.
> 
> 
> Guys still mainly hunt closer to home. Time is money. More and more guys who have the money in the SLP are looking south for a lease that’s close by, instead of the 6-8 hour plus drive to the place that can snowed in by November 15 and doesn’t melt until biting fly season, which may be June.
> ...


Well, two points: 1.)Wolves migrate in from Wisconsin, where CWD is largely endemic. 2.)Wolves have not been documented to develop CWD in Wisconsin.

Wolves, although no good data exist on this, *MAY be the solution to decreasing the spread of CWD in the UP*. Odd, isn't that what they have been described to do...control disease in an animal population.

Now, let's take nearly every one of your bullet point summary statements and alter the decline rates you predict. Why/ I suspect hunters will want to shoot and hunt deer in the disease free UP, the one that LivetohuntheUP earlier described. IF CWD jumps the species barrier, then all bets are off. 

Now, if we could just get Russ Mason to exhibit some vision...(I proposed to Russ to manage the UP as a trophy hunting destination with a true wilderness experience component.)


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## Bomba (Jul 26, 2005)

Pine and Cork....
Shut the hell up or PM each other..OMG


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Liver and Onions said:


> Are the timothy cubes for livestock ?
> 
> L & O


Karen's Morgan mare has exercise induced rhabdomyolysis. She feeds her a mix of timothy cubes and vegetable oil to keep her glycogen levels low and minimize tissue destruction.

They are a mix of timothy and beet pulp, formed into cubes and sold in 50lb bags.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Luv2hunteup said:


> The banana belt also took a big hit.
> 
> https://www.freep.com/story/news/lo...-peninsula-snow-menominee-snowfall/521828002/


You saw the enclosed photo from Marinette/Menominee. When I would go up to Calumet to ski the Great Bear Chase marathon when it was still a point-to-point race, this is what the sidewalk pathway to most of the homes would look like, except there would be brown layers to signify periods between snowfall events.


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Liver and Onions said:


> Are the timothy cubes for livestock ?
> 
> L & O


They are sometimes used for "Recreational Viewing" of wildlife.


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Luv2hunteup said:


> The banana belt also took a big hit.
> 
> https://www.freep.com/story/news/lo...-peninsula-snow-menominee-snowfall/521828002/


Yep - That photo pretty much tells it all doesn't it?


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

wildthing said:


> They are sometimes used for "Recreational Viewing" of wildlife.


That's where every last bag has gone. I tried the feed store in Trenary. Same response. The barn hay is the down to the last tier(worst quality) of their second cutting...


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Cork Dust said:


> That's where every last bag has gone. I tried the feed store in Trenary. Same response. The barn hay is the down to the last tier(worst quality) of their second cutting...


TSC in Iron Mtn usually has some. Will check...but they are very likely sold out as well.


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

wildthing said:


> TSC in Iron Mtn usually has some. Will check...but they are very likely sold out as well.


Worst case is that we will hand sort through her hay flakes at noon and five feedings, to pull all the crap out and increase the flake count. She is thirty and missing a couple of molars, so she spits out what she can't chew and leaves it on the stall floor. There is so much snow that Willow Farm staff can't get the hay truck out to the turn-out pastures to feed mid-day. Otherwise this wouldn't be a big deal..

Hope no one is feeding corn now for "recreational viewing", if they were not before this weather hit.

How do you respect an animal that only reports what it sees to half its brain?


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

Went up to Harlow Lake DWC. karen and I took turns breaking trail as we snowshoed around on a <2mile loop, that took nearly three hours to accomplish. Numerous deer and deer sign(tracks) and one kicked-open sunny ridge with six deer bedded near or feeding on it. We tried to stay well away from the deer, slogging around in the heavy moisture laden snow out of the sun. Hardest stuff I have ever tried to snowshoe in, just shy of packing up on the crampons, but wet and heavy. Karen's comment: Great work out! I married well!

The good news: snow depth has easily dropped 6-8" and the crust freezes hard over night, so this is hopefully aiding deer to escape predators. Two sets of coyote tracks and one fisher were all we saw in the snow. 

Shirtsleeve weather right now 54F forecast, with 58F on my shaded thermometer. Five days of nearly full sun forecast with only one night of sub-30F temperatures.


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

News article from last week.

http://news.jrn.msu.edu/capitalnewsservice/2018/04/20/hard-winter-bad-for-deer-too/


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Mi Live article.

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/04/michigan_still_almost_40_perce.html


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