# 2012 Spring Season Outlook



## Gobblerman (Dec 19, 2004)

Does anyone know of any websites that have the forecasted Michigan Spring outlook? The one thing I like about the Missouri DNR is that they give a forecast every year based on the estimated previous years hatch. I've been hunting Missouri the past 8 years and the DNR forecast is usually pretty good.

So where can I find the Michigan forecast? I looked on the MDNR, MWTHA and NWTF websites, but could not find anything.

Thanks for the help.


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## EdB (Feb 28, 2002)

MDNR population analysis is done in Jan each year so they don't have forecast numbers till Feb. That is why it says license quota numbers are subject to change in the turkey guide.

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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

Gobblerman said:


> Does anyone know of any websites that have the forecasted Michigan Spring outlook? The one thing I like about the Missouri DNR is that they give a forecast every year based on the estimated previous years hatch. I've been hunting Missouri the past 8 years and the DNR forecast is usually pretty good.
> 
> So where can I find the Michigan forecast? I looked on the MDNR, MWTHA and NWTF websites, but could not find anything.
> 
> Thanks for the help.


 Do you hunt public land down there in Missouri?


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## Linda G. (Mar 28, 2002)

In Michigan, any type of spring forecast depends on the winter preceding, to be anywhere near accurate...one of the reasons the spring quotas remain at one bearded bird. It would be a disaster to allow areas where two or more bearded birds can be taken, then have a nightmare winter with widespread losses. 

Missouri, and other states where there's little to no winter, can set their spring forecasts once fall crops are determined...Michigan can't...

as far as "population analysis", I don't think they're doing anything like that any more, another reason why fall seasons are few and far between these days...we usually had most of our count done by now, this January has been so mild we don't even know where the birds are, much less be able to count them. It will be another couple of weeks, I think, before we can count our flocks. 

And to the best of my knowledge, our area is the only one that is actually COUNTED, one bird at a time...we can do it because of our very organized winter feeding program, once it's under way and stabilized...we have not had a need to even set it up yet this winter.


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## Gobblerman (Dec 19, 2004)

Linda G. said:


> In Michigan, any type of spring forecast depends on the winter preceding, to be anywhere near accurate...one of the reasons the spring quotas remain at one bearded bird. It would be a disaster to allow areas where two or more bearded birds can be taken, then have a nightmare winter with widespread losses.
> 
> Missouri, and other states where there's little to no winter, can set their spring forecasts once fall crops are determined...Michigan can't...
> 
> ...


Thanks Linda, the reason I asked is someone told me that the NWTF was forcasting that the turkey population was down 40% and I had a hard time believing that. I've been seeing alot of birds and with the mild winter so far, hopefully we'll have a great spring. I'm ok with the one bird limit in Michigan because of the winters we have. 

Once again thanks for the response.


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## Gobblerman (Dec 19, 2004)

brushbuster said:


> Do you hunt public land down there in Missouri?


Private land, there is some public land in the state. The nice thing about the state is you can purchase your license over the counter.


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## multibeard (Mar 3, 2002)

Other than what feed back it gets from the MWTHA I do not think that the DNR does any counting on there own any more.

After a bad winter last year that lost us a lot of birds it looked like we had a good hatch in my hunting areas last spring from what I saw this fall. I just hope this winter stays like it has with no big storms.


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## DEDGOOSE (Jan 19, 2007)

One thing is for certain, this late start to winter has bought them grouse sized poults you see in early fall a month and a half to 2 months.


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## Gobblerman (Dec 19, 2004)

I would think with the lack of snow so far the birds have to be in good shape. The flocks I'm seeing look really healthy. I agree with multibeard if we can stay away from deep snow storms and ice storms the rest of winter it should be a great spring.


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## multibeard (Mar 3, 2002)

I was seeing what apeared to be a flock of 18 hens almost every night from my tower blind the end of November. Looks like a lot of breeding stock for next spring.


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## michgundog (Feb 22, 2008)

Gobblerman said:


> Thanks Linda, the reason I asked is someone told me that the NWTF was forcasting that the turkey population was down 40% and I had a hard time believing that. I've been seeing alot of birds and with the mild winter so far, hopefully we'll have a great spring. I'm ok with the one bird limit in Michigan because of the winters we have.
> 
> Once again thanks for the response.


 
I'm shocked it's only 40%, I've been noticing a drastic decline in bird #'s. I hope I'm wrong, I guess only scouting this spring will tell. I do know a few areas where it seems like they vanished and so did the pheasants in the same areas.


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## Linda G. (Mar 28, 2002)

If you look at the UP, which I understand took a big hit last winter (unsure if WU still has their feeding program or not up there, doesn't sound like it because when those birds were fed, they did well, no matter how cold and snowy it got), and large areas of the NLP that has been steadily declining for years, I'd believe that. We're down here, as well, mostly due to the baiting ban for three years, which had many property owners afraid to feed anything for fear of being ticketed by the DNR. A not unexpected consequence of the ban.


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