# So, when does it happen??



## Jay Johnson (Jan 10, 2008)

Mike McDonald said:


> Scott, I think you're on to something. Now with Nick and Jr both hunting numbers should crash. mac


Rick and I received a letter from the DNR after the 98-2000 peak asking us to put a governor on our grouse hunting. 

They felt the additive mortality we where causing was having an impact on their ability to manage the populations as a whole.

We pretty much disregarded their wishes and went right on killing them.

Then in 2007 they used drastic measures and hired me as an employee knowing full well that for the first five years I would only earn 4 hours vacation per two week time period and, that in itself would effectively inhibit my ability to hunt, kill grouse, and impact their management plans.

It worked and in 09-11 we had drumming counts higher in some areas than we had seen since the 1950's.


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## Dave Medema (Jan 18, 2005)

Kek, I'm still confused. Are you saying there is no cycle, they really don't have an accurate population estimate, and they don't know the causes?


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## Mike McDonald (Sep 10, 2007)

Jay Johnson said:


> Rick and I received a letter from the DNR after the 98-2000 peak asking us to put a governor on our grouse hunting.
> 
> They felt the additive mortality we where causing was having an impact on their ability to manage the populations as a whole.
> 
> ...


I think this may confirm Grush's hypothesis. Now the question is how do we get Nick and Jr gainfully employed? mac


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## N M Mechanical (Feb 7, 2008)

Mike McDonald said:


> I think this may confirm Grush's hypothesis. Now the question is how do we get Nick and Jr gainfully employed? mac


I have been known to be a quitter
_Posted via Mobile Device_


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## BIGSP (Sep 16, 2004)

N M Mechanical said:


> I have been known to be a quitter
> _Posted via Mobile Device_


Not when it comes to killing grouse. If you and JR were as good at killing Muslim Extremists as you are at killing grouse we would have had the war on terror wrapped up by Sept 12


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## 2ESRGR8 (Dec 16, 2004)

Mike McDonald said:


> I think this may confirm Grush's hypothesis. Now the question is how do we get Nick and Jr gainfully employed? mac


First things first let's get Jr. marrried off this summer then we can work on getting Nick some more work. Maybe BIGSP needs another house built?


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## 2ESRGR8 (Dec 16, 2004)

N M Mechanical said:


> I have been known to be a quitter
> _Posted via Mobile Device_


Those days in the duck blind will surely cause a spike in the west side grouse pops.


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

Dave Medema said:


> Kek, I'm still confused. Are you saying there is no cycle, they really don't have an accurate population estimate, and they don't know the causes?


I'm not in a position to say whether there is a cycle, whether the index methods used to count grouse are accurate, or whether they (whoever "they" are) know the causes.

I'm throwing this information out for discussion on the topic and maybe get some additional basis for the positions on either side of the debate to form an opinion. Jay provided some good information in his link; Dauber provided some good information in his links; and I tried to provide some good information based on the stuff I posted from the one reference I own.

If I ever get to the point that I can answer your question with some level of confidence that I have the ammunition to defend the barage of questions that will undoubtedly come once that line is drawn in the sand I'll do it. 

I know how badly some folks want to be able to say -- see I was right when I said there is a grouse cycle. I'm trying to promote discussion into some of the reasoning behind the statements.

I will say that the opinions of the biologists from the Atwater book support a grouse cycle and that some of the research supports a relationship between snowshoe hare populations and grouse populations -- at least in the Nortwestern U.S.

Back to what Mac said; to me it's mind boggling to think that so many factors can interact together to fashion such a consistent occurrence.

If you have the ability to post up the overlay of data you referred to earlier in the thread, that would be great.


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## Dave Medema (Jan 18, 2005)

Ok. Got it. I thought you were saying the cycle doesn't exist in the lake states and aspen belt. 

As to the cause, I personally think there are a lot of things working together including counter-cyclical hare populations, predator fluctuations, aspen bud toxicity, etc. 

FWIW - the RGS hunt in MN sexes and ages each bird. Interesting notes from last fall indicate the adult/Juvenile ratio was high which would indicate plummeting populations in the next few years. That hunt also has compiled the largest database of grouse research anywhere in the world regarding age, sex, and population (via flush rates and kill %) in a defined and controlled setting. This can then be crossreferenced with habitat conditions in their areas. 

So.....the 2011 adult/juv ratio says we should be going downhill....interesting in that it followed a year with a 00 or 10. I think magic is at work.


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

Dave Medema said:


> . . .FWIW - the RGS hunt in MN sexes and ages each bird. Interesting notes from last fall indicate the adult/Juvenile ratio was high which would indicate plummeting populations in the next few years. That hunt also has compiled the largest database of grouse research anywhere in the world regarding age, sex, and population (via flush rates and kill %) in a defined and controlled setting. This can then be crossreferenced with habitat conditions in their areas. . .So.....the 2011 adult/juv ratio says we should be going downhill....interesting in that it followed a year with a 00 or 10. I think magic is at work.


Good stuff. The Atwater book (hate to keep referring to it) talks about the ratio of adult/juvenile birds and its meaning too. I'll take a look at that section tonight and post up on it.


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## Dave Medema (Jan 18, 2005)

The big Ruffed Grouse book published by Stackpole has an informative section on the cycle beginning on page 200. I'll try to track down the overlayed graph and post it here.

Here is the flush rates from the MI DNR. 1957-2010.


http://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/WLD_2011_grouse_woodcock_cooperators_Report_358681_7.pdf

Figure 6 on page 11 of this PDF shows harvest info. This file also has some info on MN and WI.
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/3504_295021_7.pdf


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

Dave Medema said:


> The big Ruffed Grouse book published by Stackpole has an informative section on the cycle beginning on page 200. I'll try to track down the overlayed graph and post it here.
> 
> Here is the flush rates from the MI DNR. 1957-2010.
> 
> ...


LOL. I think we're talking about the same book. I refer to it as Atwater (Atwater and Schnell) but it's published by Stackpole.


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## Dave Medema (Jan 18, 2005)

Yup, that's the book. I have 30+ books on this subject but that one provides a good summary of most of the others and their table of contents is easy for me to use.


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## RecurveRx (Jun 21, 2004)

Great discourse fellas. Even with the grabassing. 


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## elysian (Oct 20, 2011)

Does anyone know what the metabolic rate of the grouse is?

Since the birds have such small ranges and congregate as their population reaches a critical mass and once food becomes competitive you have a large die off. This is especially true with animals that need large quantities of food, per their body weight, to survive. Rabbit cycle too could affect food availability. And die-off's always attract greater numbers of predators further hammering the population.

Birds then that leave their home covers in search of food then spread problem like a epidemic.

I have no dog in this discussion just an observation.


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## BradU20 (Jan 17, 2005)

kek25 said:


> I thought about that, Brad. What's your take on the "cycle?"


There is a cycle. You can't argue with the drumming counts and flush rates. I haven't been in the grouse game long enough to base anything on my own numbers/experiences. (that might actually be a good thing, because I think sometimes people have a hard time getting out of their "box" and realizing there is a world outside their own county/covers/etc)



kek25 said:


> I'm not in a position to say whether there is a cycle, whether the index methods used to count grouse are accurate, or whether they (whoever "they" are) know the causes.


There's a saying in fisheries research that says counting fish is as easy as counting trees in a forest, except they are invisible and they move. I think it applies to grouse too. Their habits and habitat make them extremely difficult to study. 



kek25 said:


> Back to what Mac said; to me it's mind boggling to think that so many factors can interact together to fashion such a consistent occurrence.


Yup, it is. My best guess is the cycle is closely tied to a combination aspen, snowshoes, and predators...with winter/spring weather pushing the highs higher or the lows lower.


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## cross3700 (Apr 7, 2010)

BradU20 said:


> Yup, it is. My best guess is the cycle is closely tied to a combination aspen, *snowshoes*, and predators...with winter/spring weather pushing the highs higher or the lows lower.


I've seen hares mentioned several times in this thread. Could someone explain how they tie in? Maybe I missed it someplace in the thread.


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## BradU20 (Jan 17, 2005)

cross3700 said:


> I've seen hares mentioned several times in this thread. Could someone explain how they tie in? Maybe I missed it someplace in the thread.


Snowshoes have a well documented cycle that coincided with lynx populations. I guess I should clarify that I think the hare's decline pushes more predation pressure onto grouse. It can't all be hares, because I don't think we have enough of them in the lower to have that much of an effect???








This is the classic data taken from the Hudson Bay Company.


Now throw sun spots into the mix....
http://peninsulaclarion.com/stories/110708/out_271394710.shtml


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## cross3700 (Apr 7, 2010)

BradU20 said:


> Snowshoes have a well documented cycle that coincided with lynx populations. I guess I should clarify that I think the hare's decline pushes more predation pressure onto grouse. It can't all be hares, because I don't think we have enough of them in the lower to have that much of an effect???


Thanks. As a novice grouse hunter this thread has been a great read.


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## chewy (Mar 27, 2006)

I always thought they cycled every 28 days 


mysignature http://www.perfectpedigrees.com/4genview.php?id=1295


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## hehibrits (Mar 10, 2007)

This has been a good discussion with lots of good info consolidated into one place, even with the grabassery. I also remember reading research talking about a "bounce" every other peak cycle. After a "crash", numbers rise moderately the first cycle then sharply the next cycle.







chewy said:


> I always thought they cycled every 28 days


Perhaps pen raised birds do...




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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

Thanks for those links, Dave. Interesting reading.

Here's what the Atwater book says about the relevance of the ratio of immatures to matures in the population as it relates to the cycle: ". . .The studies of Rusch, Doerr, Fischer, and Keith suggest a strong relationship between the grouse cycle and the percentage of immatures in the population near Rochester, Alberta, from 1966 to 1975. Growing populations comprised 84 to 88 percent immatures in the fall; declining populations had only 68-79 percent immatures. Yet clutch size, hatching success, and brood size all remained constant through the cycle. The researchers therefore concluded that the fluctuations in fall age ratios and the cyclic changes in numbers were probably not caused by any changes in the rate of reproduction. . ." 



Dave Medema said:


> The big Ruffed Grouse book published by Stackpole has an informative section on the cycle beginning on page 200. I'll try to track down the overlayed graph and post it here.
> 
> Here is the flush rates from the MI DNR. 1957-2010.
> 
> ...


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## N M Mechanical (Feb 7, 2008)

With that percentages we should be on a growing swing still I would say 85% where young of the year birds for me this year
_Posted via Mobile Device_


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

elysian said:


> Does anyone know what the metabolic rate of the grouse is?
> 
> Since the birds have such small ranges and congregate as their population reaches a critical mass and once food becomes competitive you have a large die off. This is especially true with animals that need large quantities of food, per their body weight, to survive. Rabbit cycle too could affect food availability. And die-off's always attract greater numbers of predators further hammering the population. . .


Here's a blurb from the resource discussed that touches on what you suggest: ". . . Occasionally, young birds from one cohort may average larger that their parents, depending on the severity of the winter.

For example, consider the weights of grouse bagged during the National Grouse and Woodcock Hunt at Grand Rapids, Minnesota. In 1983 the grouse population was in a cyclic decline, and the birds--adult hens, young males, and adult males -- were small. Apparently, the previous winters had been harsh and stressed the hens, who then produced chicks that were small and weak and never caught up. Two years later, following a more favorable winter, when food supplies and roosting snow were more satisfactory, nesting hens were in better condition and produced larger, more vigorous chick. These chicks were able to survive better and provided the basis for a recovery in the population. Consequently, the weights in each catergory were higher that year. Gordon W. Gullion. . ."


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## BIGSP (Sep 16, 2004)

N M Mechanical said:


> With that percentages we should be on a growing swing still I would say 85% where young of the year birds for me this year
> _Posted via Mobile Device_


I've talked with numerous people with a very large  and everyone estimated a 85% or so young to adult number. Hopefully 13 will be the high.


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

I hope you guys are right.


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## Mike McDonald (Sep 10, 2007)

kek25 said:


> Here's a blurb from the resource discussed that touches on what you suggest: ". . . Occasionally, young birds from one cohort may average larger that their parents, depending on the severity of the winter.
> 
> For example, consider the weights of grouse bagged during the National Grouse and Woodcock Hunt at Grand Rapids, Minnesota. In 1983 the grouse population was in a cyclic decline, and the birds--adult hens, young males, and adult males -- were small. Apparently, the previous winters had been harsh and stressed the hens, who then produced chicks that were small and weak and never caught up. Two years later, following a more favorable winter, when food supplies and roosting snow were more satisfactory, nesting hens were in better condition and produced larger, more vigorous chick. These chicks were able to survive better and provided the basis for a recovery in the population. Consequently, the weights in each catergory were higher that year. Gordon W. Gullion. . ."


I always thought that late fall bird weight read fat levels contributed to improved survival, improved clutch size and survival assuming normal nesting and hatching conditions. mac


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## Jay Johnson (Jan 10, 2008)

BIGSP said:


> I've talked with numerous people with a very large  and everyone estimated a 85% or so young to adult number. Hopefully 13 will be the high.


The peak here in MN & WI was 2010. 

Highest flush rates either my partner and I have had in better than 40 years of hunting.

We were off 30% this year and the ratio of young to old birds in the bag was down.

My guess is that you guys will be a down some this season and really starting down by 2013.


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## hehibrits (Mar 10, 2007)

The cycle within the cycle. 

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## Dave Medema (Jan 18, 2005)

kek25 said:


> Thanks for those links, Dave. Interesting reading.
> 
> Here's what the Atwater book says about the relevance of the ratio of immatures to matures in the population as it relates to the cycle: ". . .The studies of Rusch, Doerr, Fischer, and Keith suggest a strong relationship between the grouse cycle and the percentage of immatures in the population near Rochester, Alberta, from 1966 to 1975. Growing populations comprised 84 to 88 percent immatures in the fall; declining populations had only 68-79 percent immatures. Yet clutch size, hatching success, and brood size all remained constant through the cycle. The researchers therefore concluded that the fluctuations in fall age ratios and the cyclic changes in numbers were probably not caused by any changes in the rate of reproduction. . ."


So we agree again? Changes in the rate of reproduction isn't quite the same as fall population totals. Old birds survived since the spring which leads me to believe either something else ate the juvenile birds or they simply didn't died of other causes. Either way, high adult/Juvenile ratios indicate a declining population. I won't speculate why its declining.


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## Steelheadfred (May 4, 2004)

I think Steelhead cycle in Lake Mi too, and I think it's direct relationship to water levels in the rivers and lakes.


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

Dave Medema said:


> So we agree again? Changes in the rate of reproduction isn't quite the same as fall population totals. Old birds survived since the spring which leads me to believe either something else ate the juvenile birds or they simply didn't died of other causes. Either way, high adult/Juvenile ratios indicate a declining population. I won't speculate why its declining.


Yep. I'm becoming a believer. :lol:


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## BradU20 (Jan 17, 2005)

kek25 said:


> The Atwater book is available through Amazon, and I've seen it in hard cover for as low as $9. It's a pretty decent resource. It's titled Ruffed Grouse The Wildlife Series by Sally Atwater (I mistakenly referred to her as Atwood above).


Side note. Grabbed the Atwater book yesterday for $8.73 through Barnes and Noble. Next best price is $17.


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## standishgrouser (Dec 24, 2011)

With the exception of 2011, aspen buds are the most prominent food in the grouse crop. In 2011 it seemed that wintergreen berries and leaves were the majority but still there were a lot of aspen buds in their crops as well. While my experience may not be scientific, I do clean about 80 birds a year (not all mine) and grouse buds are without a doubt evident year in and year out. I have watched grouse eat the buds from the aspen trees while I have been deer hunting. They DO eat aspen buds !


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## kek25 (Jul 9, 2005)

standishgrouser said:


> With the exception of 2011, aspen buds are the most prominent food in the grouse crop. In 2011 it seemed that wintergreen berries and leaves were the majority but still there were a lot of aspen buds in their crops as well. While my experience may not be scientific, I do clean about 80 birds a year (not all mine) and grouse buds are without a doubt evident year in and year out. I have watched grouse eat the buds from the aspen trees while I have been deer hunting. They DO eat aspen buds !


Do you tend to see the aspen more at any particular part of the season (i.e. early, mid, or late season) or spread out throughout the season? I've always thought of aspen buds as a winter food for grouse and don't find it much in the crops of the grouse in the areas we hunt during the early to mid season.


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## standishgrouser (Dec 24, 2011)

I find buds in their crops all season but you are probably correct as far as a winter meal since in the early fall I find dogwood, mushrooms and acorns. The irony of me finding aspen in their crops is that i don't target young aspen stands when I hunt- I prefer the more mature stands. But I suppose the mature stands produce the buds.


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## N M Mechanical (Feb 7, 2008)

kek25 said:


> Do you tend to see the aspen more at any particular part of the season (i.e. early, mid, or late season) or spread out throughout the season? I've always thought of aspen buds as a winter food for grouse and don't find it much in the crops of the grouse in the areas we hunt during the early to mid season.


It depends on what is available this year with the amount of fruit through out the whole season I did not find a single bird with any buds in there crops but I hunted fruit till the end of the season. Other seasons with little to no fruit all season long found buds
_Posted via Mobile Device_


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## chewy (Mar 27, 2006)

hehibrits said:


> This has been a good discussion with lots of good info consolidated into one place, even with the grabassery. I also remember reading research talking about a "bounce" every other peak cycle. After a "crash", numbers rise moderately the first cycle then sharply the next cycle.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


that when over your head 


mysignature http://www.perfectpedigrees.com/4genview.php?id=1295


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## hehibrits (Mar 10, 2007)

chewy said:


> that when over your head
> 
> 
> mysignature http://www.perfectpedigrees.com/4genview.php?id=1295


Au contraire...

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