# The Myth That Mature Bucks Move More in Colder Weather or At Mid Day



## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

https://www.qdma.com/10-things-know-mature-buck-movements/

Regardless of weather, regardless of time of year, bucks move most at dusk and dawn.


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## Thirty pointer (Jan 1, 2015)

I'm all in with the dusk and dawn but have already seen an increase in deer activity since the evenings and mornings have cooled .As far as the moon in my many years in the stand I have learned to stay out later in the mornings when there is a full moon phase .Just my opinion though .


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

This is great stuff. I've been skeptical of the moon phase myth for some time, but it's almost universally accepted that cold fronts get deer moving. However, it's hard to argue with these studies using GPS collars. Apparently there has been no observed correlation between weather and buck movements.

I'm always fascinated how some things come to be accepted as "conventional wisdom". Our brains can play tricks on us when we observe two events that happen at the same time and attribute causation to one or the other, ignoring all the times the two events don't happen at the same time.

I will continue to watch weather reports, but only to inform me about how to dress for the hunt and wind direction.


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## Namrock (Apr 12, 2016)

I agree with the part about bucks being their own individual self. Seen more daytime movement with certain bucks over & over.


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## thegospelisgood (Dec 30, 2012)

Aaaaaand away weeee go.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

Most studies if not all mentioned in the article were from southern states. I agree with most info here except cold front movements...Southern whitetails are a different strain of deer than its northern counterparts..It's physically impossible for a rutting buck to be running around all day in 65-70 degree weather as opposed to a 35-40 degree cold front...Nothing was mentioned either about the doe. Does also move more frequently in cold fronts, this in turns gets bucks off their feet in cooler weather...I will be in the woods during the rut this season no matter the weather, but my odds will rocket up during a cold front (weather change) or just flat out cold weather...It may be the number one factor that tilt odds in my favor for deer sightings..


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

sniper said:


> Most studies if not all mentioned in the article were from southern states. I agree with most info here except cold front movements...Southern whitetails are a different strain of deer than its northern counterparts..It's physically impossible for a rutting buck to be running around all day in 65-70 degree weather as opposed to a 35-40 degree cold front...Nothing was mentioned either about the doe. Does also move more frequently in cold fronts, this in turns gets bucks off their feet in cooler weather...I will be in the woods during the rut this season no matter the weather, but my odds will rocket up during a cold front (weather change) or just flat out cold weather...It may be the number one factor that tilt odds in my favor for deer sightings..


One of the most recent multi-year studies is from PA which also showed no correlation with weather.


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## Wild Thing (Mar 19, 2010)

Osceola said:


> One of the most recent multi-year studies is from PA which showed no correlation with weather, just like all the others.


Pennsylvania has cold weather?? Hmmm - never realized it got that cold south of Da Bridge!!


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## Jdhunttrapfish (Jan 14, 2016)

I am a believer in the cold front "myth" because deer tend to move alot more then, I get way more pictures of deer on camera if a cold front passes through just saying, and as for a buck moving at mid day I think they move at any time of day during the rut doesn't really matter


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> https://www.qdma.com/10-things-know-mature-buck-movements/
> 
> Regardless of weather, regardless of time of year, bucks move most at dusk and dawn.


Absolutely true IMO.

Now what about cold fronts?


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

bioactive said:


> Absolutely true IMO.
> 
> Have you ever heard anyone say otherwise?


No, but I do have a friend who claims the middle of the day when bucks move less is a better time to kill them as compared to the beginning and end of the day when bucks move more 

From the article:

"It doesn’t matter what month of the year you are talking about, pretty much every study out there shows that the time of day bucks are most active is at sunrise and sunset."

I'm going to go out on a limb and state that when bucks are most active is also when they're most vulnerable to be killed.


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## d_rek (Nov 6, 2013)

Don't go using science to debunk 'conventional wisdom'! That challenges all of my so-called beliefs!!


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

Jdhunttrapfish said:


> I am a believer in the cold front "myth" because deer tend to move alot more then, I get way more pictures of deer on camera if a cold front passes through just saying, and as for a buck moving at mid day I think they move at any time of day during the rut doesn't really matter


The article references research that collected a half MILLION data points over a 3 year time frame that showed no correlation between deer movement and temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure or wind speed and direction.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> This is great stuff. I've been skeptical of the moon phase myth for some time, but it's almost universally accepted that cold fronts get deer moving. However, it's hard to argue with these studies using GPS collars. Apparently there has been no observed correlation between weather and buck movements.
> 
> I'm always fascinated how some things come to be accepted as "conventional wisdom". Our brains can play tricks on us when we observe two events that happen at the same time and attribute causation to one or the other, ignoring all the times the two events don't happen at the same time.
> 
> I will continue to watch weather reports, but only to inform me about how to dress for the hunt and wind direction.


Oseola, the science tells us overwhelmingly that the moon affecting the timing of the rut is a myth.

It also tells us that overall, deer movement is not much different during cold weather than it is during warm weather (with exceptions based on other factors, such as deep snow curtailing deer movement in cold weather). 

*But it tells us nothing about whether cold fronts increase deer movement. *Please do not change your hunting strategy until or unless someone actually studies the affect of cold fronts on deer movement. To my knowledge nobody has yet. 

The theory about cold fronts is very different than the question of warm weather vs. cold weather. For example, Jeff Sturgis, author of several books on hunting and habitat, has posted his views on this site many times, that cold fronts are perhaps the most important trigger for deer movement. I have read posts of his where he gets excited when he sees the temperature is going to drop from 70 degrees to 55. He would likewise get excited if the temperature dropped from 50 to 35. The studies November Sunrise cites look at temperatures, not temperature change. So they will take all the warm days and compare them to all the cold days. But there are warm weather cold fronts and cold weather cold front, so they are really not looking at cold fronts at all. 

Here is an analogy that might help.

let's ask the scientific question, how often is a cup of coffee spilled in a vehicle when I am going fast (60 mph or more), or going slow (less than 50 mph). We look at hundreds of hours and find that the coffee spills just as often whether you are going fast or slow. 

If you follow November Sunrises lead, you would then conclude that hitting the brakes and dropping quickly from 70 to 50, or from 50 to 30, would not cause your coffee to spill more often.

Facts are, there has not been a study reported looking at deer movement after cold fronts, so you are going to have to decide for yourself, based on your experience, or take the suggestions of others. But the data NS reports says nothing about it.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> The article references research that collected a half MILLION data points over a 3 year time frame that showed no correlation between deer movement and temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure or wind speed and direction.


Where are the data regarding cold fronts? Say, a change from 70 degrees to 50 degrees in a few hours. Or a change from 50 degrees to 30 degrees.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

sniper said:


> Most studies if not all mentioned in the article were from southern states. I agree with most info here except cold front movements...Southern whitetails are a different strain of deer than its northern counterparts..It's physically impossible for a rutting buck to be running around all day in 65-70 degree weather as opposed to a 35-40 degree cold front...Nothing was mentioned either about the doe. Does also move more frequently in cold fronts, this in turns gets bucks off their feet in cooler weather...I will be in the woods during the rut this season no matter the weather, but my odds will rocket up during a cold front (weather change) or just flat out cold weather...It may be the number one factor that tilt odds in my favor for deer sightings..


None of the data, even from southern states, addresses the question of whether cold fronts affect deer movement. Someone saying it does does not make it so.


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## Radar420 (Oct 7, 2004)

Here are my observations regarding mature buck movement.

I'm lucky enough to live and work in areas that have largely un-hunted deer populations and thus robust age structures.

I just spent some time looking at pics I've taken over the years of nice bucks I've seen cruising while driving around for work. The latest "morning" pic I have is ~11:15am on a Halloween. The majority of mature bucks seen are around 8 am and, to a lesser extent, after 4pm. I have 0 pics of mature deer at the midday hours.

With all that said, I'll still be putting some all day sits in between Nov 3 and 10


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

bioactive said:


> Where are the data regarding cold fronts? Say, a change from 70 degrees to 50 degrees in a few hours. Or a change from 50 degrees to 30 degrees.


I suspect it's within those half a million data points as well as the other research Ross mentioned.

Regardless, the cold front theory as espoused by some on this forum has not been tied in to weather fronts, where there's a dramatic 40% drop in temperatures in a few hours such as in your example. 

The claim by some has been that deer change their activity levels in a substantive fashion day to day based on temperature. 

It's the refrain in early November of "it was 50 degrees at daybreak and reached 65 as a high and so rutting action slowed down for the day." Or, "today it was 40 degrees at daybreak and tomorrow morning it will be 29 degrees. That will really get those bucks on their feet."

Simple fact is there isn't anything that occurs temperature wise which will stop bucks from being on their feet in early November.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> Oseola, the science tells us overwhelmingly that the moon affecting the timing of the rut is a myth.
> 
> It also tells us that overall, deer movement is not much different during cold weather than it is during warm weather (with exceptions based on other factors, such as deep snow curtailing deer movement in cold weather).
> 
> ...


Interesting argument, but not persuasive to me. The studies included temperature's impact on movement, so whether changes in temperature were rapid or not, fronts are baked into the data. No correlation observed.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

bioactive said:


> None of the data, even from southern states, addresses the question of whether cold fronts affect deer movement. Someone saying it does does not make it so.


Yes I realize the study wasn't about cold fronts. But in a long routed way that was my point...MI and other northern states do not have a lot of consecutive weather days in the fall like most southern states...(don't like the weather here just wait a day).....These short bursts of changing fall weather temps in the north would be the difference in the results of the study imo...Deer move more when temps drop, don't need anyone to tell me so.....I know you remember the wknd of November 1-2, 2014...


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

If rapid drops in temp caused more deer movement, then colder temperatures in general would show more deer movement, but apparently it doesn't.

To use your coffee spill analogy, bioactive, where coffee is more likely to spill with hard breaking, more spilled coffee must show up in the data at slower speeds. In other words, the average speed at which coffee spills will always be slower than the average speed at which coffee does not spill. But this has not been observed with deer movement.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

Example to make my point.

car traveling at 70 mph -no coffee spill
rapid breaking to 55 mph - spill
car traveling at 50 mph - no spill
rapid breaking to 35 mph - spill

Average speed at which there were no spills=60 mph
Average speed at which spills=45 mph

Average speed of spills will always be lower. There is no other possibility.

If your theory of deer movements/cold fronts were true, deer movement would always be higher at lower average temp versus higher average temp, but that is not the case.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

bioactive said:


> The theory about cold fronts is very different than the question of warm weather vs. cold weather. For example, Jeff Sturgis, author of several books on hunting and habitat, has posted his views on this site many times, that cold fronts are perhaps the most important trigger for deer movement. I have read posts of his where he gets excited when he sees the temperature is going to drop from 70 degrees to 55. He would likewise get excited if the temperature dropped from 50 to 35. .


What Jeff is teaching is much more of a hunter restraint system than it is a cold front system. 

Most of his consulting clients own and/or hunt small parcels as do most of the demographic he sells books to. A hunter on a small parcel is extremely well served to be strategic in his activity level and so the cold front theory creates a built in governor on activity. And for those who are adherents it become a self-fulfilling prophecy of cold fronts being "best" because most of their hunting effort is dedicated to fronts and on a per hunt basis they have higher success because they're putting less pressure on their property, plus the property is better designed for success after they implement Jeff's plan.

It's a classic case of correlation not proving causation.

By contrast, the idea that a static weather pattern for several days in early November is any less of an opportunity than a changing pattern is nonsensical. Bucks of all ages are going to pursue every opportunity to breed and they're not going to stay home for the day just because it's warmer than "normal."


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## sureshotscott (Jul 7, 2011)

It would be cool if one of you retired fellas with a couple brain cells to rub together could get ahold of the raw data and plug in the localized temp change data for additional analysis.


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## otcarcher (Dec 11, 2015)

bioactive said:


> Oseola, the science tells us overwhelmingly that the moon affecting the timing of the rut is a myth.
> 
> It also tells us that overall, deer movement is not much different during cold weather than it is during warm weather (with exceptions based on other factors, such as deep snow curtailing deer movement in cold weather).
> 
> ...


^^This is spot on. Well written.


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

People in Michigan equate buck movement with colder weather simply because it naturally gets colder in later October, when the chase phase of the rut cranks up. By early November, snow is more possible.

In my area, I've noticed that mid-day hunting from Oct. 25-Nov.10 can be better simply because there's so little completing human/hunting pressure in the woods from 10am-2pm. It isn't that the bucks naturally move more, there's just no hunters sitting on my fence lines at noon and the deer can actually move about more naturally. I rarely hear deer snorting at noon because of neighbors, like you do an hour before dark, on a calm night.


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## ratherboutside (Mar 19, 2010)

I can't say that I have seen more or less movement based on temperature. I have noticed (may be just a coincidence or a bias that is in my head) that when a front moves in with rains or storms, I see deer during the day feeding and not during the bad weather. Just temperature changes, I haven't seen the difference.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> What Jeff is teaching is much more of a hunter restraint system than it is a cold front system.
> 
> Most of his consulting clients own and/or hunt small parcels as do most of the demographic he sells books to. A hunter on a small parcel is extremely well served to be strategic in his activity level and so the cold front theory creates a built in governor on activity. And for those who are adherents it become a self-fulfilling prophecy of cold fronts being "best" because most of their hunting effort is dedicated to fronts and on a per hunt basis they have higher success because they're putting less pressure on their property, plus the property is better designed for success after they implement Jeff's plan.
> 
> ...


If you are referring to me, (names help the discussion to move along better instead of everyone guessing) you are wrong in understanding my point...If it's the rut, and it's 55, 60 degrees and under, your arse needs to be in a tree, they'll be moving.... If your sweating walking slowly to your tree on a warm day, a rutting buck is not running around all day...Their wearing fur coats...Do they move on warm days? yes...That's not the point here...


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## Joe Archer (Mar 29, 2000)

sniper said:


> If you are referring to me, (names help the discussion to move along better instead of everyone guessing) you are wrong in understanding my point...If it's the rut, and it's 55, 60 degrees and under, your arse needs to be in a tree, they'll be moving.... If your sweating walking slowly to your tree on a warm day, a rutting buck is not running around all day...Their wearing fur coats...Do they move on warm days? yes...That's not the point here...


In pre-fall patterns during higher temperatures, bucks still commonly move early. Heck, I have seen monsters in agricultural areas this year (August and September) 2 - 3 hours before sunset with 80 degree temps. Fur coat, or no fur coat. 
Many factors influence deer movement. 
<----<<<


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## Jdhunttrapfish (Jan 14, 2016)

I understand that the studies show it doesn't affect movement, but just a basic concept here but would you rather be outside working and moving around in 90 degree weather or 70?


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

Joe Archer said:


> In pre-fall patterns during higher temperatures, bucks still commonly move early. Heck, I have seen monsters in agricultural areas this year (August and September) 2 - 3 hours before sunset with 80 degree temps. Fur coat, or no fur coat.
> Many factors influence deer movement.
> <----<<<


Couldn't agree more Joe...Yes bucks move in warmer weather obviously...They still lolligag from point A to point B no matter the temps...Full rut mode on 70 plus degree days compared to a 40 degree day, I don't think so in MI...The "total" movement difference is night and day...


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> If you are referring to me, (names help the discussion to move along better instead of everyone guessing) you are wrong in understanding my point...If it's the rut, and it's 55, 60 degrees and under, your arse needs to be in a tree, they'll be moving.... If your sweating walking slowly to your tree on a warm day, a rutting buck is not running around all day...Their wearing fur coats...Do they move on warm days? yes...That's not the point here...


Deer don't limit their pursuit of breeding activities in the slightest if it's 65 instead of 50. That myth has been thoroughly disproven by the telemetry studies referenced at the beginning.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

Jdhunttrapfish said:


> I understand that the studies show it doesn't affect movement, but just a basic concept here but would you rather be outside working and moving around in 90 degree weather or 70?


Animals spend every second of their life outdoors. Modern humans are soft and conditioned towards comfort. What a human prefers is irrelevant as compared to what an animal actually does.

Whitetail deer thrive in climates considerably warmer than ours. 

The drive to breed that is raging inside a testosterone driven buck is not going to be deterred in early November based upon the temperature being above "normal."


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> I suspect it's within those half a million data points as well as the other research Ross mentioned.
> 
> *Regardless, the cold front theory as espoused by some on this forum has not been tied in to weather fronts, where there's a dramatic 40% drop in temperatures in a few hours such as in your example.*
> 
> ...


I agree with your point that some continue to believe that bucks move more in cold weather even though we have quite compelling data to the contrary available.



November Sunrise said:


> I suspect it's within those half a million data points as well as the other research Ross mentioned.
> 
> Regardless, the cold front theory as espoused by some on this forum has not been tied in to weather fronts, where there's a dramatic 40% drop in temperatures in a few hours such as in your example.
> 
> ...


I agree with everything you say here except the last sentence. Someday someone will do a study hopefully that resolves it. IN the meantime the juries out for me. My main response to you relates to your citation of data that, while it refutes the notion that deer move more in cold temperatures, does not address the question of whether they move more when a cold front hits.


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## Thirty pointer (Jan 1, 2015)

With rutting bucks all theories are off the table .I won't be convinced you will see many deer running out and about in 80-90 degrees or warmer in the middle of the day in the summer.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> Interesting argument, but not persuasive to me. The studies included temperature's impact on movement, so whether changes in temperature were rapid or not, fronts are baked into the data. No correlation observed.


No they are not baked in. To look at a front, you have to compare the day before to the day after. You cannot just average all the data. 

I agree that temperature does not affect deer movement when you average hot and cold days. But there is not a shred of data published to address whether cold fronts affect deer movement. I don't know whether they do and November Sunrise does not know that they don't. He is operating entirely on anecdotal information and reasoning, and I am doing the same. Nobody knows and the only reason I engage in what would otherwise be he said she said is that NS occasionally cites a paper as if it addresses the issue. It doesn't.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Deer don't limit their pursuit of breeding activities in the slightest if it's 65 instead of 50. That myth has been thoroughly disproven by the telemetry studies referenced at the beginning.


Yes, but we do not know if the transition to from 64 to 50 changes deer behavior that day. The telemetry studies are silent on that issue so far. Maybe the data can be collated from the study, but they have never been presented as far as I know.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

bioactive said:


> I agree with everything you say here except the last sentence. Someday someone will do a study hopefully that resolves it. IN the meantime the juries out for me. My main response to you relates to your citation of data that, while it refutes the notion that deer move more in cold temperatures, does not address the question of whether they move more when a cold front hits.


I would perceive a distinction between a weather front as compared to a weather front preceding severe weather.

In the case of one day being meaningfully cooler than the next (high of 62 one day and high of 48 the next), that to me is a yawn.

However, in the case of temperatures dropping 20 degrees in a few hours, followed a few hours later with strong winds and heavy precipitation, it's entirely possible that will create a short term burst of feeding activity before the adverse weather hits.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> If rapid drops in temp caused more deer movement, then colder temperatures in general would show more deer movement, but apparently it doesn't.
> 
> To use your coffee spill analogy, bioactive, where coffee is more likely to spill with hard breaking, more spilled coffee must show up in the data at slower speeds. In other words, the average speed at which coffee spills will always be slower than the average speed at which coffee does not spill. But this has not been observed with deer movement.


Sorry but that just ain't so. The studies NS is citing involve putting the data into blocks. The example I gave was above 60 and below 60. So a deceleration from 90 to 80 would be averaged into the high group as a spill, and a deceleration from 60 to 50 would be in the low group. 

Now, if spills were very very frequent, well then you would have an ever so slight bias towards the low, and if you took hundreds or thousands of readings, well then you might be able to see it.

But given the small numbers of deer followed in these studies and the small number of events you would see in a season there is no way you would resolve the cold fronts when averaging all the other data in. No way.


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## Jdhunttrapfish (Jan 14, 2016)

November Sunrise said:


> Animals spend every second of their life outdoors. Modern humans are soft and conditioned towards comfort. What a human prefers is irrelevant as compared to what an animal actually does.
> 
> Whitetail deer thrive in climates considerably warmer than ours.
> 
> The drive to breed that is raging inside a testosterone driven buck is not going to be deterred in early November based upon the temperature being above "normal."


 no doubt I agree with you 100% about the temps not affecting their breeding, the weather is not going change that but as far as cold fronts in say early October I think that can make a difference


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> I would perceive a distinction between a weather front as compared to a weather front preceding severe weather.
> 
> In the case of one day being meaningfully cooler than the next (high of 62 one day and high of 48 the next), that to me is a yawn.
> 
> However, in the case of temperatures dropping 20 degrees in a few hours, followed a few hours later with strong winds and heavy precipitation, it's entirely possible that will create a short term burst of feeding activity before the adverse weather hits.


Oh! Twenty degrees instead of 10. OK. You are talking about the types of cold fronts we often get in November, right?

Facts are we don't know. No matter how much I agree with you about the temperature thing, you have no data to support your declaration of the cold front idea as a myth. Again, that is all I am after here. Let's make sure we don't cite science that does not support the thesis. Right now it is like a lot of other things. One guy feels this way another guy feels that way based on conjecture, common sense, reasoning, anecdotal data, or other considerations. 

But nobody has ever published data on the affect of a cold front. So when I see someone agreeing about your opinion on cold fronts because it's "hard to argue with these studies using GPS collars." Well I will contest that since these studies show nothing about the affect of cold fronts.

In the absence of that citation, I could care less if someone agrees with you because of your experience, persuasiveness, debate skills, whatever, but I firmly disagree that there is any study that shows anything about cold fronts and their affect on deer movement.


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## Lamarsh (Aug 19, 2014)

Nice write up. I'll add that, in my observation, once a mature buck gets pressured, they often go completely nocturnal, the only exception being a hard rut raged chase on a doe in heat any time of the day, as we all know we make bad decisions ourselves when we're thinking with our other head. How many of us have property where we keep getting those great night shots on our game cams, but rarely ever see those boys during hunting hours? If you're confident you have a nice mature buck on your property, maybe think twice about how many times you walked to and from that game cam, unload corn or beets, hunt throughout October during the lull, etc.... 

My understanding of the timing of the rut has always been on hours of daylight. My understanding, deer are programmed to generally know by the days shortening / hours of light in a day. Not to different than birds laying eggs. 

I never cared to pay much attention to moon phases; however, I always acknowledge that if there's a full or nearly full moon in a cloudless night sky (i.e., creating a relatively bright night time), animals feed more during the night and are less active at dawn, so on those nights I just sort of shift where I place my bets (i.e., a later morning hunt may prove a better bet). Essentially, that desire to move around and get a nice feeding in at first light is reduced by the fact that the animals move around more throughout a well lit night. IMO the effect of the moon on deer has much more to do with plain old lighting than some intangible lunar force people like to speak of.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

bioactive said:


> Oh! Twenty degrees instead of 10. OK. You are talking about the types of cold fronts we often get in November, right?
> 
> Facts are we don't know. No matter how much I agree with you about the temperature thing, you have no data to support your declaration of the cold front idea as a myth. Again, that is all I am after here. Let's make sure we don't cite science that does not support the thesis. Right now it is like a lot of other things. One guy feels this way another guy feels that way based on conjecture, common sense, reasoning, anecdotal data, or other considerations.
> 
> ...


I stick with my original statement - the research negates the myth that mature bucks move more in mid day or COLDER weather. 

Mid day is the slowest period of movement for bucks of all ages and bucks don't suppress or accelerate their pursuit of breeding opportunities based on temperatures. 

That's what the research shows.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> No they are not baked in. To look at a front, you have to compare the day before to the day after.


...which is exactly what they did; compared movement when it was warmer (the days before cold fronts) to when it was colder (the days after cold fronts). It's much simpler than you are making it.


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## northwoods whitetails (Jun 23, 2009)

For what it's worth......
Last year on November 6th, it was 65 degrees up here. I had bucks all over on my cameras. Busiest day on cameras I have ever seen.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

Here's one every can play...Looking just at mature bucks 3.5 yr olds or better, how many have shot one on a day that temps were above 65 degrees??...Rutting time say Oct 15th thru Nov 30th??..In Michigan...The last few decades there as been many 65 plus days in this time period...There might be a couple but not many...


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

sniper said:


> Here's one every can play...Looking just at mature bucks 3.5 yr olds or better, how many have shot one on a day that temps were above 65 degrees??...Rutting time say Oct 15th thru Nov 30th??..In Michigan...The last few decades there as been many 65 plus days in this time period...There might be a couple but not many...


I have, once. On that particular warm November 6th I saw 2. Seen plenty of older bucks in unseasonably high temps since. I think the warm weather bothers me more than them.

If it's time, it's time.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

northwoods whitetails said:


> For what it's worth......
> Last year on November 6th, it was 65 degrees up here. I had bucks all over on my cameras. Busiest day on cameras I have ever seen.


In southern MI during one or two of the single digit days in November there's a time where daytime buck activity peaks. It's right at the point where a meaningful percentage of does are going to come into estrus. There isn't a November temperature that's ever existed in Michigan which would deter a buck from pursuing the breeding opportunities that are erupting all around him during that period.

The frustrating thing about it is a hunter can only be in one place and can completely miss the experience in a given season. It can then cause the hunter to speculate about "trickle ruts" and wind and temperature and so forth.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> In southern MI during one or two of the single digit days in November there's a time where daytime buck activity peaks. It's right at the point where a meaningful percentage of does are going to come into estrus. There isn't a November temperature that's ever existed in Michigan which would deter a buck from pursuing the breeding opportunities that are erupting all around him during that period.
> 
> The frustrating thing about it is a hunter can only be in one place and can completely miss the experience in a given season. It can then cause the hunter to speculate about "trickle ruts" and wind and temperature and so forth.


Boy I'm glad your around NS to set us straight on this hunting thingy....Not sure where we'd be without the info...There's one thing about firing out some southern state gps study but to tell guys hunting in one wackiest weather state in North America how mystical their observations are that's happening right in front of them is another...


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

mbrewer said:


> I have, once. On that particular warm November 6th I saw 2. Seen plenty of older bucks in unseasonably high temps since. I think the warm weather bothers me more than them.
> 
> If it's time, it's time.


So thats about what mine is also...Around 7-10%...Which I'd guess about right....
I have 11, 3.5 yr olds mounted and I shot one of them where that temp was above 65...Nov 15, 2001...He stood up in a swamp and took the next hour and five minutes to take one step...His last..No deer were moving that day...


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## Thirty pointer (Jan 1, 2015)

We keep going from all the time to the rut its apples and oranges .


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> Boy I'm glad your around NS to set us straight on this hunting thingy....Not sure where we'd be without the info...There's one thing about firing out some southern state gps study but to tell guys hunting in one wackiest weather state in North America how mystical their observations are that's happening right in front of them is another...


Walk us through it Sniper.

Last year it was 75 degrees on November 4th. 

Let's say in a woodlot of 20 acres two different does reach full estrus and are ready to be bred at 10:30 am. 

What is it that you imagine happening for the remainder of the day? All the bucks go celibate due to heat? Only the young bucks are on the prowl and so they get to spend the afternoon in the sack until the big boy reaches his comfort level once the sun sets? The big guy just sits and listens to the yearling' buck's lovemaking grunts but doesn't go intervene because of concerns about over exerting himself in the heat?

And if a couple bucks do approach her I suppose there's no chasing either? She gives it up more readily because of the humidity?

Let's hear the explanation for how your heat theory actually plays out.


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## northwoods whitetails (Jun 23, 2009)

sniper said:


> Here's one every can play...Looking just at mature bucks 3.5 yr olds or better, how many have shot one on a day that temps were above 65 degrees??...Rutting time say Oct 15th thru Nov 30th??..In Michigan...The last few decades there as been many 65 plus days in this time period...There might be a couple but not many...


Two of the bucks I had on camera were 3.5. 
The bigger of the two I had pictures of at 11:00 and 1:30
I shot a nice 2.5 yr old that night.
Not sure if it means anything, but just the facts from up here that day.


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## Thirty pointer (Jan 1, 2015)

My air is set at 72 after that I get real uncomfortable .Excluding the rut what would a deer do in a fur coat at 2:00 when its 80 or better ?


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## captainpaddlebone (Sep 1, 2016)

All I'm hearing is that no matter what, you should be in a treestand the first week of November. and don't choot em in the PADDLEBONE! !!!!!


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> Now, if spills were very very frequent, well then you would have an ever so slight bias towards the low, and if you took hundreds or thousands of readings, well then you might be able to see it.


I'm glad you're coming around!  It just so happens that deer movement is very very frequent and there are hundreds of thousands of readings available.

Even if you group the data into bands, increased deer movement would have to show up in the lower bands for the cold front theory to hold up.


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## Steve (Jan 15, 2000)

sniper said:


> Here's one every can play...Looking just at mature bucks 3.5 yr olds or better, how many have shot one on a day that temps were above 65 degrees??...Rutting time say Oct 15th thru Nov 30th??..In Michigan...The last few decades there as been many 65 plus days in this time period...There might be a couple but not many...


One.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Walk us through it Sniper.
> 
> Last year it was 75 degrees on November 4th.
> 
> ...


Wow there's a lotta, could've, should've, would've, in this little scenario...
First off 75 degrees make no difference for a buck to be holed up with a doe....75 IS to hot to be chasing that doe all day long....BIG difference ..What would happen, in a real deer world, is that the largest most aggressive buck would move in and chase the smaller bucks off and that buck would be in lockdown with the doe in estrous.. The smaller bucks would watch from a distance or wander off for a different candidate...
Not at any point did I say deer would not move in the heat. It happens everyday in the summertime...
What I said issss, there would not be the all day running around as there is in most pre rut scenarios on cooler days...Deer (bucks) have limits as what their bodies can endure..Bucks can not run around all day in 70-80 degree heat chasing does...It's physically impossible, as it's physically impossible with any animal sporting a fur coat made for 20 degrees below zero..


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

sniper said:


> Wow there's a lotta, could've, should've, would've, in this little scenario...
> First off 75 degrees make no difference for a buck to be holed up with a doe....75 IS to hot to be chasing that doe all day long....BIG difference ..What would happen, in a real deer world, is that the largest most aggressive buck would move in and chase the smaller bucks off and that buck would be in lockdown with the doe in estrous.. The smaller bucks would watch from a distance or wander off for a different candidate...
> Not at any point did I say deer would not move in the heat. It happens everyday in the summertime...
> What I said issss, there would not be the all day running around as there is in most pre rut scenarios on cooler days...Deer (bucks) have limits as what their bodies can endure..Bucks can not run around all day in 70-80 degree heat chasing does...It's physically impossible, as it's physically impossible with any animal sporting a fur coat made for 20 degrees below zero..


Ya ever see how sled dogs are trained, in the summer?


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

mbrewer said:


> Ya ever see how sled dogs are trained, in the summer?


LOL. And it's a good thing whitetail deer don't exist south of the Michigan border - imagine the difficulties they'd experience procreating in places like Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

This subject gives the terms "book smart" and "street smarts" a whole new light..


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> This subject gives the terms "book smart" and "street smarts" a whole new light..


Why don't the bucks in Pennsylvania reduce their movement during heat waves?

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


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## RMH (Jan 17, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> https://www.qdma.com/10-things-know-mature-buck-movements/
> 
> Regardless of weather, *regardless of time of year*, bucks move most at dusk and dawn.


Tell that to sparky the wonder buck. September through December every year the love stricken buck starts disrupting doe families all day long, wind rain and shine.. Sometimes it takes a couple hundred yards for a doe to shake the little guy. The woods become rattled up and the mature bucks have to put up with it also and move more to keep up with the does. Rutting activity trumps everything else.

FWIW in the 16 years at my hunting spot in Lapeer, the vast majority of the deer movement during the three month hunting season is 9:30 - 11:30 am and 2:30 - 4:30 pm.


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## Pinefarm2015 (Nov 29, 2015)

November Sunrise said:


> I may be wrong, but all of my instincts tell me that my "straw man" arguments are hitting some of the strongly held beliefs that have became popular on this forum in recent years.
> 
> There are some true believers on this forum that the hunting is better when it's 40 than when it's 60 and the emotionalism of some of the responses seem to indicate their dogma has been disturbed.
> 
> Sorry. Just calling it like it is.


Thank you for your efforts to help some hunters here to be more successful. But if these forums have taught us anything over many years...


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

RMH said:


> Tell that to sparky the wonder buck. September through December every year the love stricken buck starts disrupting doe families all day long, wind rain and shine.. Sometimes it takes a couple hundred yards for a doe to shake the little guy. The woods become rattled up and the mature bucks have to put up with it also and move more to keep up with the does. Rutting activity trumps everything else.
> 
> FWIW in the 16 years at my hunting spot in Lapeer, the vast majority of the deer movement during the three month hunting season is 9:30 - 11:30 am and 2:30 - 4:30 pm.


As much as everyone is enamored with personal observations, as the article stated, telemetry study after telemetry study shows that deer move most at dusk and dawn, regardless of time of year. 

What deer actually do trumps what hunters observe them doing.


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## RMH (Jan 17, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> As much as everyone is enamored with personal observations, as the article stated, telemetry study after telemetry study shows that deer move most at dusk and dawn, regardless of time of year.
> 
> *What deer actually do trumps what hunters observe them doing*.


If that were true I would be observing the vast majority of my sightings at dawn and dusk. 

So what I am seeing is what deer do, actually do.

If you want to believe what some nerdy little liberal students wrote about in their little study knock yourself out. For 16 years and many many many all day sits at my 18 acre hunting spot in Lapeer I pretty sure I got a handle on the deer movement.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Only if temperature is considered a side effect of weather change would I hunt based on temperature.
Not as accurate a determining factor as change though.
Been hunting more in warm weather the past decade. Weather changes factor but depending on coming change the deer can be active ahead of it ,in it or behind it.
Real cold might relate to conserving energy till after a heavy blow after loading up before it. Feeding in heavy falling snow one event and little such for a milder event.

Mid day bucks.....if you are in their beds you can catch one on a brief stretch.
Pressured bucks conditioned to hunters at each end of the day I have caught flat footed mid day. High noon even on one memorable one on a nice day and no weather bumps recalled.
They want to move ,weather will not stop them.
Without being cranked up for does ,feeding rules based on weather schedule if routines are broken.
Does coming cold inspire greater activity like human shoppers warned of a blizzard? Maybe. Anyone feeling motivated to greater activity before a storm might have a little lizard brain left ,even without a weather forcast to tell them.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

RMH said:


> If that were true I would be observing the vast majority of my sightings at dawn and dusk.
> 
> So what I am seeing is what deer do, actually do.
> 
> If you want to believe what some nerdy little liberal students wrote about in their little study knock yourself out. For 16 years and many many many all day sits at my 18 acre hunting spot in Lapeer I pretty sure I got a handle on the deer movement.


LOL - I would hope it's taken you a lot less than 16 years to figure out your 18 acre parcel my friend. 

I'd also confident you can grasp the fact that what occurs in your little slice of the world doesn't prove what is happening for the entire species throughout its range. Where you hunt in relation to crops, bedding areas, etc. all are major factors on what a hunter personally observes. Because you see deer regularly at a given time doesn't mean even more deer weren't on the move elsewhere at a previous time.


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## RMH (Jan 17, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> LOL - I would hope it's taken you a lot less than 16 years to figure out your 18 acre parcel my friend.
> 
> I'd also confident you can grasp the fact that what occurs in your little slice of the world doesn't prove what is happening for the entire species throughout its range. Where you hunt in relation to crops, bedding areas, etc. all are major factors on what a hunter personally observes. Because you see deer regularly at a given time doesn't mean even more deer weren't on the move elsewhere at a previous time.


LOL-16 year solidifies my sightings. I never mentioned my skill level. 

Exactly why I stated "my 18 acres". Thanks for proving my point by relating other factors. 

You're chasing your tail if you think you can pin down more deer might be moving elsewhere at a previous time.


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

November Sunrise said:


> Why don't the bucks in Pennsylvania reduce their movement during heat waves?
> 
> http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


Like I always say, deer do what deer do. How far, how fast is what I key on. A simple premise that covers any situation.


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

November Sunrise said:


> LOL - I would hope it's taken you a lot less than 16 years to figure out your 18 acre parcel my friend.
> 
> I'd also confident you can grasp the fact that what occurs in your little slice of the world doesn't prove what is happening for the entire species throughout its range. Where you hunt in relation to crops, bedding areas, etc. all are major factors on what a hunter personally observes. Because you see deer regularly at a given time doesn't mean even more deer weren't on the move elsewhere at a previous time.


I think the missing ingredient to what we observe is the recognition that the movement we see is seldom the first or the last. Every deer came from somewhere and is going somewhere. Acknowledging the obvious helps a thinker determine how far, how fast.

I never assume that deer are not moving during high activity periods. What I do assume because I can't deny it is that I'm not in the right place or I'm not set up properly to intercept them. Denying or offering a conditional excuse for the predictability of deer activity makes no sense to me. If you learn through experience when to expect deer activity whenever it is, you should apply that. The people in this thread are doing that and enjoying success because of it, not in spite.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

agbuckhunter said:


> We'll there you go guys.....hunt dawn and dusk every day and you'll be killing mature bucks every year because the researchers say so from there studies from Texas to Maryland.


I have a feeling if the studies were conducted in Michigan, it would not change anyone's mind on this thread. People are going to believe what they want to believe.


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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

Very interesting 



I believe them studies are correct, deer do move more in the dawn and dusk periods. But as a hunter I also depend on my own personal observations. I have seen deer move more where I have been hunting during cold fronts. With that said come November I will be hunting as often as I can, but certainly not the same stand or even the same area.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

brushbuster said:


> I have seen deer move more where I have been hunting during cold fronts.


"More" as compared to what? What's your baseline comparison? 

Do you know exactly how many deer you see per hour at a certain temperature level and then track how many more you see per hour under different conditions?

How do you know how many deer you would have seen if a cold front hadn't came through? For a cold front to create more sightings, you have to know exactly what would have happened if the cold front hadn't occurred. How do you go about determining that?


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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> "More" as compared to what? What's your baseline comparison?
> 
> Do you know exactly how many deer you see per hour at a certain temperature level and then track how many more you see per hour under different conditions?
> 
> How do you know how many deer you would have seen if a cold front hadn't came through? For a cold front to create more sightings, you have to know exactly what would have happened if the cold front hadn't occurred. How do you go about determining that?


Usually its previous days or days afterwards. I am a pretty simple guy, I kinda look at what I saw yesterday vs what I saw today, vs what I see tomorrow. If I see one of those days has a cold front and the others don't, then I pretty much determine that something caused more movement. Granted, It could be other factors. Back in the day when I use to bait, I noticed more activity on the bait pile on cold front days than the previous and later warmer days. I know nothing scientific here, but that is what I noticed.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

Osceola said:


> I have a feeling if the studies were conducted in Michigan, it would not change anyone's mind on this thread. People are going to believe what they want to believe.


Research often doesn't change minds if it requires a person to acknowledge they've been clinging to a false belief system. There's a reason why marriage counselors never run out of prospects - the vast majority of humans have difficulty admitting they're wrong about anything.


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## hunterrep (Aug 10, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> You're also zeroing in on the "cold front" concept. There are dozens of people who've jumped on that bandwagon and as a collective I've seen all sorts of weird ideas advocated from some, such as not even hunting an early November day because it's too warm. If there ever was a tight messaging related to this concept it's long since been lost as many have jumped on the bandwagon and repeated it as gospel.


Of course people zero in on cold fronts. And, of course anybody that "has the time" shouldn't choose to not hunt on an early November day because of warm temps. Hunt every day if you can in early Nov but many don't have that luxury. 
If your hunting days are limited and you have the flexibility to pick and choose those days, would you choose a warm day or a cold day? Would you choose a post cold front day when deer have been held at bay by weather or a day that was the same as the last 5 days when deer moved freely and were not hindered by bad weather that is usually associated with a front (ie, high wind, rain, snow)?
My point of hunting fronts is simply this, I feel it is a higher percentage use of my limited time. No different than hunting Oct 1 vs Nov 1. I am always going to look at all the factors and hunt the days that stack the odds of killing a mature buck In my favor. 
I've seen no evidence that post cold fronts do not have an effect on mature deer, or for that matter any deer movement. I will continue to use the cold front factor to dictate my hunting dates along with other factors because I feel it increases my odds more so than any other factor (with the exception of breeding times).
My mounts on the wall compel me to continue this belief. FWIW, my wall didn't start to fill up until I adhered to these beliefs. The minute I started paying attention to all of the factors that create a higher percentage hunt for mature bucks is the minute I started killing more mature bucks. 
This study is interesting but I see nothing in it that changes my opinion of how to pick higher percentage hunting days.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

brushbuster said:


> Usually its previous days or days afterwards. I am a pretty simple guy, I kinda look at what I saw yesterday vs what I saw today, vs what I see tomorrow. If I see one of those days has a cold front and the others don't, then I pretty much determine that something caused more movement. Granted, It could be other factors. Back in the day when I use to bait, I noticed more activity on the bait pile on cold front days than the previous and later warmer days. I know nothing scientific here, but that is what I noticed.


Yes, comparing what happened today to what happened yesterday is a normal process. We all do that as we're trying to make sense of why our results and experiences differ. 

Using that same process I was at one time persuaded that deer move more on cloudy rather than sunny days. When a person ascribes to a limiting belief such as that it then becomes self-fulfilling. They hunt their better stands on cloudy days. They stay on stand longer on cloudy days. When they hunt on a sunny day and don't see anything they immediately ascribe it to the sunshine and thus have no reason to dig any deeper for other possibilities. When they have a slow hunt on a cloudy day they're dismissive of it because it doesn't mesh with what they "know." They read articles that agree with their perspective and are quickly dismissive of those who challenge their thinking.

What I'm describing is the process of how a person becomes convinced of a "truth" that isn't actually true


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Research often doesn't change minds if it requires a person to acknowledge they've been clinging to a false belief system. There's a reason why marriage counselors never run out of prospects - the vast majority of humans have difficulty admitting they're wrong about anything.


And so do people who believe everything they read...It's almost an epidemic in America and has created numerous problems in our country..


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

hunterrep said:


> Of course people zero in on cold fronts. And, of course anybody that "has the time" shouldn't choose to not hunt on an early November day because of warm temps. Hunt every day if you can in early Nov but many don't have that luxury.
> If your hunting days are limited and you have the flexibility to pick and choose those days, would you choose a warm day or a cold day?.


My answer Jeff is in early November I don't care about temperatures and the data shows the deer don't either. 

Why didn't the bucks in Pennsylvania slow down their activity during the heat wave and increase it after?

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> And so do people who believe everything they read...It's almost an epidemic in America and has created numerous problems in our country..


Why didn't the heat wave in PA slow down buck activity? Why didn't activity increase after the heat broke?

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> Yes, comparing what happened today to what happened yesterday is a normal process. We all do that as we're trying to make sense of why our results and experiences differ.
> 
> Using that same process I was at one time persuaded that deer move more on cloudy rather than sunny days. When a person ascribes to a limiting belief such as that it then becomes self-fulfilling. They hunt their better stands on cloudy days. They stay on stand longer on cloudy days. When they hunt on a sunny day and don't see anything they immediately ascribe it to the sunshine and thus have no reason to dig any deeper for other possibilities. When they have a slow hunt on a cloudy day they're dismissive of it because it doesn't mesh with what they "know." They read articles that agree with their perspective and are quickly dismissive of those who challenge their thinking.
> 
> What I'm describing is the process of how a person becomes convinced of a "truth" that isn't actually true


I think, if something works for you and your confident with your findings, then go for it.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

hunterrep said:


> Of course people zero in on cold fronts. And, of course anybody that "has the time" shouldn't choose to not hunt on an early November day because of warm temps. Hunt every day if you can in early Nov but many don't have that luxury.
> If your hunting days are limited and you have the flexibility to pick and choose those days, would you choose a warm day or a cold day? Would you choose a post cold front day when deer have been held at bay by weather or a day that was the same as the last 5 days when deer moved freely and were not hindered by bad weather that is usually associated with a front (ie, high wind, rain, snow)?
> My point of hunting fronts is simply this, I feel it is a higher percentage use of my limited time. No different than hunting Oct 1 vs Nov 1. I am always going to look at all the factors and hunt the days that stack the odds of killing a mature buck In my favor.
> I've seen no evidence that post cold fronts do not have an effect on mature deer, or for that matter any deer movement. I will continue to use the cold front factor to dictate my hunting dates along with other factors because I feel it increases my odds more so than any other factor (with the exception of breeding times).
> ...


BINGO!!!!....Could not have been explained any better....I would also bet that the majority of serious guys that hunt mature bucks or any buck for that matter, would agree with your post....Nice job hunterrep...


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## agbuckhunter (Oct 12, 2011)

Osceola said:


> I have a feeling if the studies were conducted in Michigan, it would not change anyone's mind on this thread. People are going to believe what they want to believe.


You are correct. People will believe what they observe. Some people are more observant than others. I pay attention to the weather daily all year and I watch deer on the way to work hammer the fields on pre/post weather fronts. I have never said deer don't move during warm weather or more at dawn/dusk. But those that pay attention to details will gain an advantage at certain times when weather permits.

I don't think anyone disagrees that from Oct 25 - Nov 20th that bucks are in search for a breeding doe and can move more at anytime. I don't think anyone will disagree that hunting anytime during warm conditions during pre/peak rut could bring success. 

I can remember 20yrs ago people saying that you couldn't make a deer bed and get deer to bed where you want. Now the whole whitetail world talks about, writes, and videos hinge cutting beds.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> BINGO!!!!....Could not have been explained any better....I would also bet that the majority of serious guys that hunt mature bucks or any buck for that matter, would agree with your post....Nice job hunterrep...


Still waiting on your explanation of why the bucks didn't change their movement in the PA research.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

brushbuster said:


> I think, if something works for you and your confident with your findings, then go for it.


I don't want to be confident in my own findings my friend. Left to my own observation I would insist that the sun revolves around the earth. 

When it comes to deer behavior I'm interested in what is true, regardless of whether or not it is an affront to my previous understandings.


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## TJD (Jan 29, 2006)

November Sunrise said:


> My answer Jeff is in early November I don't care about temperatures and the data shows the deer don't either.


In early November, I'm also in the stand every chance I get regardless of temperature. Based on my personal observations, I have much greater confidence hunting during cold fronts, than I do when it's unseasonably warm, but I'm always out there in my best stands regardless of temperatures. I've also had considerably more opportunities at older bucks during colder weather, again nothing scientific, just my own personal experience. 

I'm curious, NS, if you own personal experience supports your argument. Have you had consistent success on mature bucks on those unseasonably warm November days?


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Still waiting on your explanation of why the bucks didn't change their movement in the PA research.


Didn't read it....Why would I read about a study in PA when i hunt in MI...Two totally different worlds..


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

TJD said:


> In early November, I'm also in the stand every chance I get regardless of temperature. Based on my personal observations, I have much greater confidence hunting during cold fronts, than I do when it's unseasonably warm, but I'm always out there in my best stands regardless of temperatures. I've also had considerably more opportunities at older bucks during colder weather, again nothing scientific, just my own personal experience.
> 
> I'm curious, NS, if you own personal experience supports your argument. Have you had consistent success on mature bucks on those unseasonably warm November days?


I've hunted most single digit days in early November for the past decade. Have killed 4 mature bucks from November 1st - 9th in past 10 years. One day temps were way above average, two days temps were normalish and one day was extremely cold. 

But my experience doesn't prove or disprove anything. The tendencies of deer as a species can't be established by an individual's observations.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

sniper said:


> Didn't read it....Why would I read about a study in PA when i hunt in MI...Two totally different worlds..


What are the ways whitetail deer in PA differ in biology from whitetail deer in MI?


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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

November Sunrise said:


> I don't want to be confident in my own findings my friend. Left to my own observation I would insist that the sun revolves around the earth.
> 
> When it comes to deer behavior I'm interested in what is true, regardless of whether or not it is an affront to my previous understandings.


I can understand that, but we both know that people have a tendency to go with what works for them.
look at the baiting side of hunting. Its a yuge money making business, thousands of hunters spend lots of money and time throwing it out in the woods. Lots of people are convinced without bait their chances of seeing deer diminish. I was one of those people. but since I have stopped baiting I can honestly say my chances of seeing deer have increased.
Same thing with the TL movement. Many people use his methods and wont hunt until late October or early November, and many are successful with his methods. I am one that do not use his methods, and to be honest, I am glad I didn't last year, I would have missed out on my buck of a lifetime.
Again, I think people need to find what works for them and go for it. Hunting is personal endeavor with many tactics.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

sniper said:


> Didn't read it....Why would I read about a study in PA when i hunt in MI...Two totally different worlds..


Wow. Just wow.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

brushbuster said:


> Same thing with the TL movement. Many people use his methods and wont hunt until late October or early November, and many are successful with his methods. I am one that do not use his methods, and to be honest, I am glad I didn't last year, I would have missed out on my buck of a lifetime.
> .


That's a perfect illustration Brad of the point I'm making.

This place has a tendency to move from one group think topic to the next - first it was TL, then it was moon theories, now it's cold front theories. Even some experienced hunters are vulnerable to the flavor of the day, although most established hunters are not as easily swayed as in most cases they've either figured out something that works for them or they're so stuck in a rut they can't change, reminiscent of the bass fisherman who the only thing they ever learned to do was to cast under docks.

But newer hunters haven't had enough time to refine their thinking and they're vulnerable to group think on topics such as the ones Ross addressed in the article. The point of this thread is simple. The research is definitive - deer movement does not correlate to weather and deer move more at dusk and dawn than mid day.

Those who are not set in their ways can use those facts to their advantage.


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## hunterrep (Aug 10, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> My answer Jeff is in early November I don't care about temperatures and the data shows the deer don't either.
> 
> Why didn't the bucks in Pennsylvania slow down their activity during the heat wave and increase it after?
> 
> http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


I highly value your knowledge so I will trust the study says what you say. But frankly, I don't care if they slow down their activity during warm vs cold. I've come to trust in the theory of sharp changes in weather triggering activity. Nothing in that study will convince me it doesn't happen since nobody has proven whether it is true or not true. I base my hunting dates on:
1) time of year
2) cold front triggers
3) nutrition needs of deer
4) wind direction and more important severity
5) precipitation
Pretty much in that order but the weighing factors change based on time of year. A cold front trigger can happen from an 80 to 60 degree change as well as a 50 to 30 degree change. 60 degrees is still pretty warm in my opinion (mostly for my comfort) but that warmth wouldn't change my mind if it is a post cold front change and the other factors are favorable.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

hunterrep said:


> I highly value your knowledge so I will trust the study says what you say. But frankly, I don't care if they slow down their activity during warm vs cold. I've come to trust in the theory of sharp changes in weather triggering activity. Nothing in that study will convince me it doesn't happen since nobody has proven whether it is true or not true. I base my hunting dates on:
> 1) time of year
> 2) cold front triggers
> 3) nutrition needs of deer
> ...


Flesh it out for me. Why would sharp changes in weather trigger activity?

Let's the say the temperature drops from 65 to 45 degrees.

Are you saying a doe and her fawns in the U.P. are going to respond to the reduced temperatures by wandering around more in daylight, thus greatly increasing their exposure to wolves?

Why would a prey animal reduce its safety every time there's a weather shift?


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## Joe Archer (Mar 29, 2000)

I have it from a very reliable source that your odds of killing a deer go up significantly when you leave the couch and head to the woods.
If I would have factored temperature into my hunting decision making in 1984, and stayed in to watch football; I would missed out on one of my best bucks ever.

..................Temp Hi Low Avg
10/24/1984...........53 ...28 ..40
10/25/1984...........52....32...42
10/26/1984...........57....48...52
10/27/1984...........73.....55...64

Obviously, the worse day to hunt if you look at temperature was 10/27; right? All I can say is that 10/27/84 was a bad day for this guy who dressed out over 220 pounds and yielded 126 pounds of boneless venison!








<----<<<


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## hunterrep (Aug 10, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Flesh it out for me. Why would sharp changes in weather trigger activity?
> 
> Let's the say the temperature drops from 65 to 45 degrees.
> 
> ...


I don't know the whole answer but my opinion is this. These cold fronts usually have some severe weather associated with them. It might be high winds, it might be a hard driving rain, it might be a heavy snow. These conditions will hole up a deer, somewhat, and once these conditions pass, deer get up and move. The trigger that made my light bulb go on was I noticed deer like to get out and about directly after a hard rain stops. 
As an example, let's say it is winter and a cold front brings blizzard conditions with it. Let's say it lasts 2 days. Most deer hole up for those two days as a survival instinct. Let's say it stops in the middle of the day. Do you believe they will continue to lay there until they are supposed to move (according to your cited studies) at dusk or are they going to get up immediately after to get food, chase does, get a drink?
So in summary, I don't think it is as much the drop in temperature, I believe it is more the conditions associated with that Cold front.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

Osceola said:


> Wow. Just wow.


What are we wowing about O???


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## FREEPOP (Apr 11, 2002)

sniper said:


> And so do people who believe everything they read...It's almost an epidemic in America and has created numerous problems in our country..


You read that somewhere, didn't you?


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## FREEPOP (Apr 11, 2002)

This thread is interesting, enlightening and thoroughly entertaining.


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## November Sunrise (Jan 12, 2006)

hunterrep said:


> As an example, let's say it is winter and a cold front brings blizzard conditions with it. Let's say it lasts 2 days. Most deer hole up for those two days as a survival instinct. Let's say it stops in the middle of the day. Do you believe they will continue to lay there until they are supposed to move (according to your cited studies) at dusk or are they going to get up immediately after to get food, chase does, get a drink?.


In your example of a blizzard that limits deer from feeding, my guess is most deer would feed asap. Hunger would drive the action. 

Not really seeing that as congruent though with the concept that 20 degree shifts in temperature, such as a decline from 70 to 50 degrees, would have any impact on what a deer does. 

Predation risk is an enormous factor in why deer do what they do. I think the theory that deer move more simply based on a temperature shift breaks down when considering the increased exposure to predators.


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## sniper (Sep 2, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> What are the ways whitetail deer in PA differ in biology from whitetail deer in MI?


I should've of put it, I don't hunt there and don't plan to hunt there, so why should I study up on a place I don't plan on hunting....I take MI research with a grain of salt also NS..I've spent enough years in my neck to know exactly what's going on in front of me...I know the deer numbers, I know the landscape, I know the pressure that's put on them and I definitely know how they react to certain weather conditions...It's been relatively the same going on 40 plus years so you or some random research paper are not changing my mind..


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## hunterrep (Aug 10, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> In your example of a blizzard that limits deer from feeding, my guess is most deer would feed asap. Hunger would drive the action.
> 
> Not really seeing that as congruent though with the concept that 20 degree shifts in temperature, such as a decline from 70 to 50 degrees, would have any impact on what a deer does.
> 
> Predation risk is an enormous factor in why deer do what they do. I think the theory that deer move more simply based on a temperature shift breaks down when considering the increased exposure to predators.


I think you missed my point. My opinion is it isn't as much the drop in temperature as it is the foul weather that is often associated with a cold front that triggers post cold front movement. 
I completely agree that simply looking at the temperature gage to dictate when you hunt is poor advice for any level of hunter. There are many factors to consider.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

otcarcher said:


> I'm glad someone else besides me understands this.


There is one other factor I did not mention that RMH just reminded me of in his post. Hunters are only concerned with daytime movement. We know from GPS studies that deer rapidly respond to hunting season and change their movement patterns and locations even starting the day before firearms season as the hunters move to the filed to prepare for the hunt. 

The way deer move may change based on weather conditions as well.

The only thing anyone has said in these threads is that they tend to see more mature deer at mid-day, not that there is more movement. The only thing said about cold fronts is that hunters see more mature bucks after a cold front, not that they are moving more. All it takes is slight changes in pattern, such as more daytime movement after a cold front, and hunters might see more deer, even if the average amount of movement is greater. Same thing with mid-day sighting.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Whe


November Sunrise said:


> Flesh it out for me. Why would sharp changes in weather trigger activity?
> 
> Let's the say the temperature drops from 65 to 45 degrees.
> 
> ...


Deer are seen feeding outside of first and last light. Not always weather related.
Also with strong changes in barometric pressure ,often in advance and after, due to effect of upcoming ,previous changes in conditions caused by weather patterns.
Being ruminants means loading up prior to events of abrupt change, then again when conditions stabilize.
Those weather changes often involve wind and other factors affecting senses increasing predation risks when active.
During pre rut and rut ,buck activities can continue ,but the more active does are, activity of bucks can follow.

Wolves can see just fine in the dark. Deer in open areas under stable conditions sense better than under foul ones. Even monitoring a wind at their backs and watching downwind in areas where canines harass them. Take away multiple senses through weather conditions and deer are more reluctant to be active.
Even if it means a mid day heavy feeding instead of both ends of daylight.
Humans can influence their schedules too.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> You keep taking cold fronts/ special weather events. I'm not talking about cold fronts - I'm talking about the scientific data that shows temperature doesn't affect deer movement. Ross referenced multiple studies that established that fact including one specific study with a half million data points.


I agree 100% with you about the findings regarding high vs. low temperature. Furthermore I agree 100% with you that mature bucks (and all deer for that matter) move more during the evening than at mid-day.

Can you stop for a moment and recognize that I agree with you?

But neither you or I know whether deer movement changes after a cold front. A cold front can cause a drop from 90 degrees to 75, or from 30 degrees to 15. The impact of a cold front may be completely independent of temperature and dependent on temperature change. 

You could simply acknowledge that you do not have data to support cold fronts having no effect on deer movements and move on. But as long as you continue to assert that the existing data sets show no effect of cold fronts on deer movements, I will continue to point out that the GPS studies are silent on that subject. The data might exist but they have not been collated and publicly presented yet. And given the number of cold fronts per year, it is very doubtful that you could figure it out following only 40 bucks. 

Again, those are not data points, they are position measurements. They are used in combination, regardless of how many are taken, to come up with a distance measurement. So if you are taking readings every 10 minutes, you get 144 readings to come up with a single data point (distance traveled that day or acres covered), and if you take readings every 10 seconds you use 1440 readings to still come up with the same distance covered number but with a more narrow error. 

BTW, I think distance should be measured as linear distance traveled, not acres occupied. A deer occupies only the ground it is standing on, not surrounding ground.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> I'm a morning hunter. Only factor that would stop me from hunting a morning during the first week of November would be rain. I don't bowhunt in the rain.
> 
> If it weren't raining I'd choose the day with the wind direction most favorable for my best stand location.. Temperature would not factor into my decision because there's no reason for it to. Temperature is irrelevant to what bucks are doing in early November - *unless they're with a doe in estrus they will be out looking for does regardless of temps.*


Exactly, which is why a hunter positioned between bedding areas is going to see more of them at mid-day during the rut. If he is not finding does in a bedding area at mid-day, he is going to move to another one. Those of us that believe we have a high chance of seeing a mature buck at mid-day are doing so because of everything you believe about how bucks behave during that time. 

Using your logic, of course bucks are going to be moving in the open to find estrous does if they do not have one handy. And of course hunters are going to see them at mid-day, which is unexpected by many hunters who believe deer are only crepuscular, and do not understand what is driving them as you do. 

The reason you see more bucks at mid-day is because the does are less mobile and the bucks have to move to find them.

Note, that does not mean they are moving more at mid-day than they do at morning or evening. It means they are moving and that it is a great time to see mature bucks right out in the open moving with purpose.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

sniper said:


> Because it's his way or no way!...It's very obvious he scrolls through posts without taking in what is actually written...This flaw and the "I'm smarter than everyone else" is very difficult to debate or share opinions with...


I agree. NS must not be actually reading what we are writing. If he was, he would not keep countering things that were not said.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> As much as everyone is enamored with personal observations, as the article stated, telemetry study after telemetry study shows that deer move most at dusk and dawn, regardless of time of year.
> 
> What deer actually do trumps what hunters observe them doing.


Have you found a single person yet that disagrees with that statement> I looked at all the posts. No-one disagrees with that statement. No-one.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

QDMAMAN said:


> If I'm camped out within 100 yards of a known mature buck bedding area I'm fairly confident that the odds of that buck emerging in legal shooting light in mid October on a 55 degree high day following a 70 degree high day with a thunderstorm in the mix, are a little higher than that same 55 degree day being a duplicate of the previous day.


Yes, and that movement which entails a rare 15 minute earlier excursion, would be invisible when averaged with the other 365 days of the year.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> You're also zeroing in on the "cold front" concept. There are dozens of people who've jumped on that bandwagon and as a collective I've seen all sorts of weird ideas advocated from some, such as not even hunting an early November day because it's too warm. If there ever was a tight messaging related to this concept it's long since been lost as many have jumped on the bandwagon and repeated it as gospel.
> 
> Nonetheless. Ross' article points to multiple research studies which conclusively establish that temperature doesn't impact deer movement. He specifically says they attempted to correlate barometric pressure (which correspond with weather fronts), temperature, wind speed, precipitation, etc. Research conclusion: No correlation was evident.


Changes of the sort QDMAMAN is talking about would be invisible in a large study which is averaging data for all the cold days vs. all the warm days of the year.

Invisible.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> As much as everyone is enamored with personal observations, as the article stated, telemetry study after telemetry study shows that deer move most at dusk and dawn, regardless of time of year.
> 
> What deer actually do trumps what hunters observe them doing.


Not me. I am only using scientific data.

Scientific data agrees with your contention that deer do not move more when it is cold than when it is hot.

Scientific data show that they do not move more at high or low barometer readings.

Scientific data show that they move more in the evenings and mornings than at mid-day.

Scientific data say they move more during the rut and that the rut comes at the same time each year. 

There is no scientific data to say whether deer move more the day after a cold front. So when you declare that there is data to support that notion, you are using the same personal bias you accuse others of using.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Research often doesn't change minds if it requires a person to acknowledge they've been clinging to a false belief system. There's a reason why marriage counselors never run out of prospects - the vast majority of humans have difficulty admitting they're wrong about anything.


Or if they broadly generalize without recognizing the resolution of the experiment is very fuzzy, taking general rough observations and applying them to fine circumstances. 

What you are doing would be like proving football is not popular because the stadium is filled to only a fraction of its capacity when you average the number of people in it over all 365 days of the year.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> What I'm describing is the process of how a person becomes convinced of a "truth" that isn't actually true


Like you did when you stated deer do not move more after a cold front?


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## QDMAMAN (Dec 8, 2004)

November Sunrise said:


> You're also zeroing in on the "cold front" concept.





November Sunrise said:


> As much as everyone is enamored with personal observations, as the article stated, telemetry study after telemetry study shows that *deer move most at dusk and dawn, regardless of time of year*.
> 
> What deer actually do trumps what hunters observe them doing.


Specifically, what time is dawn and/or dusk, AND would 10-15 minutes make a significant difference ?


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

http://www.noble.org/ag/research/usinggps/


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Why didn't the heat wave in PA slow down buck activity? Why didn't activity increase after the heat broke?
> 
> http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2015/frosty-pumpkins


Are you serious with this Jeff? This blog has zero information about how much bucks moved. it simply shows a beginning and end to when some arbitrary movement threshold was reached during a hot year vs. a cold year.

They may have data about the affect of temperature on how much a buck moves (rather than the time period when a bucks movement is increased) but there is zero information about how much these bucks moved and how it correlated with daily temperatures. ZERO.

It tells you roughly when the rut started for a micro samples size of 8 bucks, but has zero information about how much they moved. 

View attachment 227831


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

hunterrep said:


> *I highly value your knowledge so I will trust the study says what you say. *But frankly, I don't care if they slow down their activity during warm vs cold. I've come to trust in the theory of sharp changes in weather triggering activity. Nothing in that study will convince me it doesn't happen since nobody has proven whether it is true or not true. I base my hunting dates on:
> 1) time of year
> 2) cold front triggers
> 3) nutrition needs of deer
> ...


It does not say anything about whether bucks move more during cold weather. It just says that the rut starts at the same time each of two years with a very tiny (insignificant from a scientific standpoint) number of bucks.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

November Sunrise said:


> Flesh it out for me. Why would sharp changes in weather trigger activity?
> 
> Let's the say the temperature drops from 65 to 45 degrees.
> 
> ...


There are a number of reasons, but I will give one illustration. A 15 degree change in weather requires either lower energy expenditure or more food to overcome the increase in Basal Metabolic Rate.

Facts are, deer are probably more hungry on a 35 degree day than a 50 degree day. Not much research on non-hibernating mammals and most of it is related to humans, so let'e take a look at what happens to the human basal metabolic rate as temperatures go down:

*Effects of Temperature on BMR
According to the text, "Thermal Effects on Cells and Tissues," BMR changes as a function of temperature. BMR will change by seven percent for each temperature change of 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit. Thus, when external conditions affect your body temperature, your body will burn more calories as it tries to compensate for the anomaly and restore your body to its normal temperature, increasing your BMR. This effect occurs in conditions of both heat and cold.*

If a deer is similar to a human (probably is, both being large non-hibernating mammals), a 7% increase per 0.9 degrees between a 50 degree day and a 35 degree day would result in 15/0.9 X 7 = a 117% increase in basal metabolic rate.

*Correlating a 250 lb. deer with a 250 lb. human, the human resting metabolic rate results in the burning of around 2400 calories per day. Again, assuming a correlation with human, a deer that is at 35 degrees is using 1.17 X 2400 = 2800 extra calories per day. *So yes, he is going to be hungrier and need to consume more food. That amount of change may be different from the human, but it is probably not off by a huge factor.

Now, what might be the result? The deer might stay in the destination food for an extra hour in the morning, and pass the hunters stand site after daylight instead of in the dark. He sees more deer. The deer did not move any further than on the 50 degree day, but the hunter is more likely to see deer in daylight.

That is one of a number of different examples.

The opposite might occur with extreme cold temperatures with deep snow, when deer are confined to deer yards and move very little. When you The kind of data you are reporting as definitive proof, might be very misleading if deer move less under some cold conditions and more during other cold conditions. 
So let's suppose the hunters on here are right, and deer move more when the temperature is below 50 degrees than above 50. But this movement is offset by much less movement in the deer yards. What you end up with is an average that does not describe what is really happening.

An as a scientist I can tell you we have to sort out lots of issues with broad averages when looking at data sets. The average very often obscures interesting and valuable observations.

You are very critical and perhaps overly didactic towards others almost to the point of being brutal over perceptive assumptions and confirmation bias and the like. But what I see in you is a lack of understanding of nuance in data analysis that is very common in lay people as well as some researchers who are too close to their own work), to apply the data to things that it really was not designed to explain, and to declare the data "prove" something when they have low statistical significance, or are average out possible offsetting variables as they may be doing in the case of temperature or diurnal movement. I every case Jeff you fall back on your own logic, asking why would a buck do that, etc. This is exactly what you criticize others for.


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

Hypothesis abounds , pick a favorite group or author.
Then find variations from others.
More studies create more findings , and contridictions at times.


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## FREEPOP (Apr 11, 2002)

Waif said:


> As can pressure.
> Ancadotal ,of course, but years of running hounds revealed the myth of the earth inhaling or exhaling.
> Just before this rainy stretch started ,the dirt scent was overpowering prior to the rain.(yes, humidity is also involved).
> Scent piling up rather than dispersing.
> Joe has a point with heats effect on scent too with it rising or pooling , depending on weather variables.


I've had a few beagles that taught me some things.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> No, if I were making progress, you would have actually read what I have written before and know that this is all I have been saying all along. In response to NS on Monday. You must have missed this one:
> 
> *bioactive said: I agree with everything you say here except the last sentence. Someday someone will do a study hopefully that resolves it. IN the meantime the juries out for me. My main response to you relates to your citation of data that, while it refutes the notion that deer move more in cold temperatures, does not address the question of whether they move more when a cold front hits.*
> 
> ...


No reason to get so snarky. I was trying to be lighthearted. I think it's fair to say you stated it more explicitly in my example. Geesh.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

QDMAMAN said:


> FWIW, a CFT can still take place at "above normal" temps. CFT's are based on the day to day differences in temps not the temps compared to seasonal "average" temps.


Sure. My table is overly simplistic just to prove the concept. What if you turned things around and grouped days with above average movement and grouped days with normal or below average movement? If you compared the average temps of these two groups, it would be lower for the above average movement group if CFT persisted.


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## Walt Donaldson (Feb 23, 2015)

November Sunrise said:


> https://www.qdma.com/10-things-know-mature-buck-movements/
> 
> Regardless of weather, regardless of time of year, bucks move most at dusk and dawn.


This is ground-breaking news! I will let my Wife know ASAP, as it will help her get the big one Saturday!


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> No-one is saying the data were not collected in the study.


Reply #19 Osceola said: "fronts are baked into the data."

Reply #36 bioactive responded: "No they are not baked in."


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## otcarcher (Dec 11, 2015)

Osceola said:


> Reply #19 Osceola said: "fronts are baked into the data."
> 
> Reply #36 bioactive responded: "No they are not baked in."


Do you really not realize that having data points and having data points related to cold fronts are not the same? No, data for cold fronts is not baked into that data. Jim is correct.


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## Muskegonbow (Dec 31, 2006)

Walt Donaldson said:


> This is ground-breaking news! I will let my Wife know ASAP, as it will help her get the big one Saturday!


Lol. I've missed your posts!


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## Groundsize (Aug 29, 2006)

Here this a buck moving around mid day last year. To small to shot being only a 2.5. A week later I killed a 4.5 year old 10 pt on the same trail at 0915 hours. Was no point in hunting mid day there as I only had the 4.5 year old on cam in that spot at night. 

View attachment 228025


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## brushbuster (Nov 9, 2009)

Have we learned anything with this thread?


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## Waif (Oct 27, 2013)

brushbuster said:


> Have we learned anything with this thread?


Ummmm, bucks move or don't move ,weather or not?


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## Walt Donaldson (Feb 23, 2015)

brushbuster said:


> Have we learned anything with this thread?


Walt doesn't like to brag, but he's known this since he was twelve.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> Reply #19 Osceola said: "fronts are baked into the data."
> 
> Reply #36 bioactive responded: "No they are not baked in."


Obviously I am talking about data that we have access to in my former statement, not data that we do not have access to. I mention data that might exist but we do not have access to in my latter statement. You drew a conclusion in this thread from the part of the data that we do not have access to. If you don't have access to it, how can it convince you of anything?


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> Sure. My table is overly simplistic just to prove the concept. What if you turned things around and grouped days with above average movement and grouped days with normal or below average movement? If you compared the average temps of these two groups, it would be lower for the above average movement group if CFT persisted.


You would get the same result. Since cold fronts are a relatively rare, transient event, any differences would be swamped out by the large sample sizes of warm and cold days. Funny as it seems, you have to look at cold fronts if you want to study cold fronts.

You would average my air pressure in my tire over the last 365 days and tell me it was not flat on March 14th.

You cannot resolve a relatively rare event by looking at the average condition.

Get it?

My tire is full. Then one day it is empty, then the next day it is full again. Average it over time and you do not catch a transient event, which occurs only for a short period of time.


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## mbrewer (Aug 16, 2014)

bioactive said:


> You would get the same result. Since cold fronts are a relatively rare, transient event, any differences would be swamped out by the large sample sizes of warm and cold days. Funny as it seems, you have to look at cold fronts if you want to study cold fronts.
> 
> You would average my air pressure in my tire over the last 365 days and tell me it was not flat on March 14th.
> 
> ...


You're right but you could determine if temperature affects tire pressure. Which it does of course. Presumable a cold front would as well?


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> You would get the same result. Since cold fronts are a relatively rare, transient event, any differences would be swamped out by the large sample sizes of warm and cold days. Funny as it seems, you have to look at cold fronts if you want to study cold fronts.
> 
> You would average my air pressure in my tire over the last 365 days and tell me it was not flat on March 14th.
> 
> ...


No, I don't quite get it yet. Your example does not accurately reflect my point.

Let's say a rapid decrease in tire pressure caused an event to happen like a light going on on your dashboard. Now let's say you looked at your average tire pressure on all the days that your dashboard light went on. It would always be lower than the average tire pressure of the days that the light did not go on. It wouldn't matter if you run your tires at 100 lbs or 15 lbs., the statement is always true.

Now I will concede that if you want to check to see if your warning light is working (test the cold front theory), you would have to compare your tire pressure each day to the day before. This would be easy to do. I admit I don't know if they did that or not, but I can't imagine why they wouldn't considering the cold front theory is so prevalent and this statement:

_With the exception of one study from South Texas in the summer, numerous studies from Texas to Maryland suggest that weather has little or no influence on mature buck movements. I know, hard to believe, right? But, at least to-date, researchers have thrown everything at this concept and collected a lot of data, and still nothing. - Matt Ross QDMA_


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> No, I don't quite get it yet. Your example does not accurately reflect my point.
> 
> Let's say a rapid decrease in tire pressure caused an event to happen like a light going on on your dashboard. Now let's say you looked at your average tire pressure on all the days that your dashboard light went on. It would always be lower than the average tire pressure of the days that the light did not go on. It wouldn't matter if you run your tires at 100 lbs or 15 lbs., the statement is always true.
> 
> ...


Pretty much what I am saying, If you compare day to day looking for abrupt temperature changes and compare movement on the day before to the day after, you will be able to determine if there are transient differences in movement that correlate with a downward trend in temperature of X degrees. That would be like looking at tire pressures from day to day.

In the end, these studies are probably not large enough to break into such small subsets without losing resolution I.e. having too small a sample size to get statistically significant data. 

And Ross BTW, does what every trained person does, and qualifies his statement with "at least to date". That is true even of the averaged data, let alone data that has not been examined or at least presented yet. And he points out there is an exception among the studies, something that you seem to overlook.


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## Osceola (Jul 21, 2016)

bioactive said:


> Pretty much what I am saying, If you compare day to day looking for abrupt temperature changes and compare movement on the day before to the day after, you will be able to determine if there are transient differences in movement that correlate with a downward trend in temperature of X degrees. That would be like looking at tire pressures from day to day.
> 
> In the end, these studies are probably not large enough to break into such small subsets without losing resolution I.e. having too small a sample size to get statistically significant data.
> 
> And Ross BTW, does what every trained person does, and qualifies his statement with "at least to date". That is true even of the averaged data, let alone data that has not been examined or at least presented yet. And he points out there is an exception among the studies, something that you seem to overlook.


So after all that we've come to an agreement. I've acknowledged all along that credibility is a legitimate point, but the data is there and easily analyzed.

By the way, if I was overlooking the TX exception, why was I the one to bring it up? Makes me think you guys never bothered to read the article in the OP or someone else would have mentioned it before now.


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## bioactive (Oct 30, 2005)

Osceola said:


> So after all that we've come to an agreement. I've acknowledged all along that credibility is a legitimate point, but the data is there and easily analyzed.
> 
> By the way, if I was overlooking the TX exception, why was I the one to bring it up? Makes me think you guys never bothered to read the article in the OP or someone else would have mentioned it before now.


If the agreement is that there is no data available from these studies that addresses the question of whether deer movement increases during cold fronts, then yes, we are in agreement.


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## yooper Bob (Jul 11, 2016)

bioactive said:


> You would get the same result. Since cold fronts are a relatively rare, transient event, any differences would be swamped out by the large sample sizes of warm and cold days. Funny as it seems, you have to look at cold fronts if you want to study cold fronts.
> 
> You would average my air pressure in my tire over the last 365 days and tell me it was not flat on March 14th.
> 
> ...



Jim, Where I live and where I hunt we have frequent cold fronts. In my 60 years of hunting whitetails one thing is certain. If its cold Deer are moving, if it warms up,they bed down and move only when they have to. Up north in the U.P. deer grow heavy winter coats, in the warmer climates they don't.


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