# Opinions on lumber prices



## ofishloutdoorsman

I had planned to build a pole barn this fall but the lumber prices made me hold off, hoping things may calm down after the election and we hopefully get as close to back to normal with the pandemic as possible. Any opinions as to what is driving the prices and if it might be coming back down? I know it's all speculation but I was hoping that maybe somebody in the industry may have some insight about the supply and pricing. Thanks


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## Scout 2

Greed and because they can. There is a big mill in 2 locations not far from me and one treats wood and the other saws lumber 2x4 and such. They never slowed down at the one sawing lumber. One big problem now may be lack of people willing to work They have had a sign out most of the summer for help


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## wpmisport

Was told a lot of lumber comes from Canada and the border has been shut down.


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## sureshot006

wpmisport said:


> Was told a lot of lumber comes from Canada and the border has been shut down.


Canada is not closed for workers that I am aware of. Just "non-essential" travel


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## Big Frank 25

Hurricanes don't help.


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## wannabapro

Yes it’s pretty legit for a few well-understood reasons. 

I don’t think prices will ever drop, unfortunately. Lumber is a bit more complicated than a basic commodity.


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## wpmisport

sureshot006 said:


> Canada is not closed for workers that I am aware of. Just "non-essential" travel


Just second hand information that comes from a person that does the orders from a lumber yard.


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## MSUFW07

We are in the same boat, wanted to start a pole barn this summer/fall but between lumber prices and permits taking too long its been more then likely punted to early next year. 

I have heard a few different reasons for the higher prices. First is that Canada shut down just like the US did and so the saw mills and lumberjacks got behind and haven't been able to catch up. Second is that the border got closed down but like someone mentioned that was for non-essential travel. I have also heard that lumber is heading South to the coast to help with rebuilding after hurricanes, which makes sense. Not sure if any of that is true but those are the excuses I have heard.


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## sureshot006

wpmisport said:


> Just second hand information that comes from a person that does the orders from a lumber yard.


May have been true. At one time.


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## FREEPOP

MSUFW07 said:


> We are in the same boat, wanted to start a pole barn this summer/fall but between lumber prices and permits taking too long its been more then likely punted to early next year.
> 
> I have heard a few different reasons for the higher prices. First is that Canada shut down just like the US did and so the saw mills and lumberjacks got behind and haven't been able to catch up. Second is that the border got closed down but like someone mentioned that was for non-essential travel. I have also heard that lumber is heading South to the coast to help with rebuilding after hurricanes, which makes sense. Not sure if any of that is true but those are the excuses I have heard.


I believe a combination of all those is what's driving costs.


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## Chessieman

Was planning to modify my gun blind eliminating a corner and adding a 45 degree wall. I had the womanizer 2x4's from the other corner I did last year. I could not get the siding I wanted to match what I had put up, high price before but long lasting. At least I bought and cut the Lexon for the modifications last year. Imagine trying to buy any clear Plexiglass of Lexan this year, that probably is ten times the price.


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## brushbuster

1/2 inch osb is 23 bucks a sheet. Unreal.


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## Scadsobees

The shutdown nationwide ramped up lumber sales with people with too much time on their hands. Plus people making more than they normally would on unemployment, + government checks.
Supply line issues with plant and border shutdowns. Lumber supply company that is local said their sales to home depot doubled, the problem is supply, can't get enough fast enough.
They've finally been able to tap into the Russian lumber supply, that should help a little bit.


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## Bucket-Back

Second hand info from a wood shop early March 2020. Supervisor told us that lumber would go up and our door orders would go down because Trump was being pressured from the Western State senators to slap a tariff on China wood.
Sierra Pacific owns millions of acres out west and their wood sucks, plus fires may have burned some wood up. 

So no China wood, little Canuck wood, and states out west are burning.

A Triple Play so to speak.


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## kroppe

Supply and demand. Demand is high for mainly good/positive reasons. Household formation drives demand, and under building post-GFC means supply has gotten tighter relative to the demand. Raw material supply in the short term is difficult to increase, so price is what changes, in this case up. 

If/when owners and executives in raw material companies decide the building trend has legs, they will work overtime, add production shifts, expand existing factories and build new factories. All normal stuff. 

Freight traffic across the US-CAN border is not meaningfully impacted now. Do the research. 

The election has substantially no bearing on the above.


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## sureshot006

kroppe said:


> Supply and demand. Demand is high for mainly good/positive reasons. Household formation drives demand, and under building post-GFC means supply has gotten tighter relative to the demand. Raw material supply in the short term is difficult to increase, so price is what changes, in this case up.
> 
> If/when owners and executives in raw material companies decide the building trend has legs, they will work overtime, add production shifts, expand existing factories and build new factories. All normal stuff.
> 
> Freight traffic across the US-CAN border is not meaningfully impacted now. Do the research.
> 
> The election has substantially no bearing on the above.


I cannot imagine supply being short due to a sudden spike in demand during the pandemic. Seems it would be more related to shortages in the beginning not getting caught up. Is there really that much more demand?


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## Scadsobees

sureshot006 said:


> I cannot imagine supply being short due to a sudden spike in demand during the pandemic. Seems it would be more related to shortages in the beginning not getting caught up. Is there really that much more demand?


Yes, there was. Lumber sales TO home depot were least 50% higher. I assume the other box stores were similarly affected.

For a couple of months, there were only two places that were essential...big grocery stores and big home improvement stores. People getting big raises on unemployment, and nothing to spend their money on, might as well get that project started that they've been thinking about for years but never had time for. It was seriously a thing.

Then there's the supply pipeline, as shutdowns happened in various places, inventories were depleted. Now everybody's playing catch-up.


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## sureshot006

Scadsobees said:


> Yes, there was. Lumber sales TO home depot were least 50% higher. I assume the other box stores were similarly affected.
> 
> For a couple of months, there were only two places that were essential...big grocery stores and big home improvement stores. People getting big raises on unemployment, and nothing to spend their money on, might as well get that project started that they've been thinking about for years but never had time for. It was seriously a thing.
> 
> Then there's the supply pipeline, as shutdowns happened in various places, inventories were depleted. Now everybody's playing catch-up.


I did see an impact in the chemical industry as well. Paints/pigment orders were off the charts.


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## Luv2hunteup

High demand is causing high prices plus purchasing managers waiting until prices drop to refill inventory is causing the shortage. Nobody wants to get stuck with a huge inventory that has to be sold at a loss. I have a a bunch of projects that are on hold right now through no choice of my own. It’s either a material or labor shortage either way demand is high for both. I just want the work done not excuses. 

New roof for the homestead.
Refinish, stain and seal my homestead’s cedar siding.
Landscaping and paver block patio for the homestead.
New windows, doors and siding for camp.


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## William H Bonney

I ordered a lot of lumber in May or June for my garage addition, I was STUNNED at how cheap it was.


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## bjacobs

Robert777 said:


> Prices are not going down because demand is not going down.
> 
> Only thing that will make prices go down is a deep recession. You guys probably know what would have to happen soon to create a recession, so I wont go int o detail, staying away from that subject.
> 
> Prices? I think, will NOT go down and even could go up.
> 
> I am going to be in the same position soon, just moved to MI and looking for a house, preferably with a barn/shop in Livingston co, preferably near Brighton or Howell.
> 
> If I find a house without a barn and need to build one, I'm writing that check ASAP and forging ahead even if I have to do it over the winter. Not acceptable to have to pay 10 or 20% more next spring and that could and probably will happen if demand stays high.
> 
> ~


Did you read the article I linked? And what it says about future lumber prices?


Sent from my iPhone using Michigan Sportsman


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## Martin Looker

Timber prices have gone down in the UP.


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## Trophy Specialist

Martin Looker said:


> Timber prices have gone down in the UP.


Amazing how when crap like this happens how the profits don't trickle down very far. Pure greed.


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## kroppe

Very seasonal business in the timber production (logging) world. @Forest Meister can probably speak to this. I have peripheral experience at the downstream end of this supply chain. Logging seasonality creates feast and famine for lumber mills in terms of raw material (logs) supply. 

Fluctuations in price and availability of logs shows up at the wholesale and retail lumber level in differing degrees and timing. This is not new.


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## Forest Meister

There is no short answer, it's complicated when it comes to prices being bid on stumpage, what is being paid for feedstock at a particular production facility, and what the consumer has to pay at the local lumber yard. Generalizing, prices have gone up for certain species and products, and not moved at all for others or have even dropped a wee bit. Pulp markets in the UP were not helped by the glut of wood pushed north and east due to the shutdown of Verso mills in Wisconsin Rapids and Duluth. 

Nationwide, things are even more complicated than in our Great State of Michigan. Oddly enough, even in Canada, a country that has always exported a lot of lumber to the US, they are experiencing the very same issues with lumber prices skyrocketing as we are having on this side of the ditch. 

We can blame whoever we want for the building material price increases but until consumer demand drops drastically or production capacity can somehow be increased, OSB, particleboard and papermills operate 24/7 already, prices higher than we are used to paying are going to stick around a while.

FWIW: The paragraph below was taken from a hot off the presses market report. It certainly does not bode well for anyone looking for cut rate building material, or carpenters to put it together. FM

*....In addition to the remodeling boom, the market for new home construction is also showing great strength. New housing starts were very strong for September --- 8.8% above the previous month and a stunning 11.3% above September, 2019 And growth in new home construction looks to continue for the balance of 2020 as new building permit statistics for September, released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Oct. 20, showed an 8.1% increase over September, 2019. 

*


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## kroppe

Thanks @Forest Meister . I see this as a multi-year phenomenon, caused by underbuilding post-GFC and accentuated by the events of 2020.


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## Robert777

I am no expert so take what I say as just my opinion but....

Concerning shortages and price increases due to that, I just moved and needed to buy a bunch of plywood and OSB to build some serious padding and partitions in a moving van along with a bunch of shipping crates. Padding was a sheet of OSB with 2 inch foam glued to it to go between stuff like roll away tool boxes etc.

Home depot had plenty of plywood and OSB, it was just a lot more expensive then it should be.

Seems to me there was no shortage but there certainly was a price gouging situation happening.

Maybe the exorbitant price was reducing sales? but there where a ton of people buying as I seen many pickups with full loads of building supplies including big stacks of plywood and OSB going out when I was there buying also. This was around middle/late September. 

This was on multiple trips as I bought what I thought I needed but had to go back multiple times to buy more and every time, same thing. They had plenty and people where buying all types of building supplies like mad.

Home Depot certainly was not under supplied, or so it seamed??

Seamed they were just taking big profits from the supply they had.

I am starting to think when I buy the next home/land I should find 20 or more acres of forested land and then order up a sawmill, buy barn plans and start sawing.


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## brushbuster

Robert777 said:


> I am no expert so take what I say as just my opinion but....
> 
> Concerning shortages and price increases due to that, I just moved and needed to buy a bunch of plywood and OSB to build some serious padding and partitions in a moving van along with a bunch of shipping crates. Padding was a sheet of OSB with 2 inch foam glued to it to go between stuff like roll away tool boxes etc.
> 
> Home depot had plenty of plywood and OSB, it was just a lot more expensive then it should be.
> 
> Seems to me there was no shortage but there certainly was a price gouging situation happening.
> 
> Maybe the exorbitant price was reducing sales? but there where a ton of people buying as I seen many pickups with full loads of building supplies including big stacks of plywood and OSB going out when I was there buying also. This was around middle/late September.
> 
> This was on multiple trips as I bought what I thought I needed but had to go back multiple times to buy more and every time, same thing. They had plenty and people where buying all types of building supplies like mad.
> 
> Home Depot certainly was not under supplied, or so it seamed??
> 
> Seamed they were just taking big profits from the supply they had.
> 
> I am starting to think when I buy the next home/land I should find 20 or more acres of forested land and then order up a sawmill, buy barn plans and start sawing.


Plenty of hoops to jump through with a saw mill getting rough sawn lumber passed by inspectors.


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## kroppe

Construction data released today, residential building activity is the highest in the past 10 years.


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## Robert777

brushbuster said:


> Plenty of hoops to jump through with a saw mill getting rough sawn lumber passed by inspectors.


Wow thanks for the heads up on that.

Now, if you will all excuse me I need to trim my finger nails and have to check in with the local government & apply for a nail modification permit.


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## brushbuster

Robert777 said:


> Wow thanks for the heads up on that.
> 
> Now, if you will all excuse me I need to trim my finger nails and have to check in with the local government & apply for a nail modification permit.


And nothing is written in stone either. Depends on inspectors. Some want graded and stamped. Kiln dried, some want 12 inch centers, some won't even accept it for structural.


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## Martin Looker

Some places it comes from your own property they don't have a problem with it.


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## NovemberWhitetailz

Forest Meister said:


> When I read 80/20 for a TSI I assumed it was 80% logger and 20% landowner and thought that was a fair percentage for an improvement harvest since as the name implies, the harvest is designed to improve the overall quality of the stand by removing some pulp along with primarily low quality logs in order to give the good trees more growing room.
> 
> Now we are talking about the landowner getting 80%? Holy Cow. Your FIL might want to review the contract wording because a logger taking just 20% on a true TSI would result in his bankruptcy in very short order.
> 
> If pulpwood is selling at $125/cord at the mill it would mean your FIL would receive $100/cd and the logger would have to pay the cost of production and trucking out of his $25 share. Every logger I know claims it costs about $45/cd to produce wood, getting it from the stump to the landing, and pile it where a truck can reach it. Trucking costs vary by distance but if we lowball the cost at just $15/cd the logger would lose $35/cd on every cord he produced. Dealing with logs, even if they averaged $600/thousand (about $300/cd in round figures) the landowner would get $480 of that leaving $120/M (about $60/cd) to cover expenses so at least he might come close to breaking even.
> 
> The only circumstances where a logger can make any money on an 80/20 landowner/logger percentage if where the logger is picking through he forest and removing very high value veneer logs, and that is not a TSI by any stretch of the imagination, it's nothing less than a choppers choice high-grading operation. Those jobs can set stands back scores of years. FM


I guess I may have used the TSI incorrectly. He's taking primarily Oaks, reds and whites and there are a few maples. But this wood lot is pretty much just oaks and there are a ton of them. I can have him look at it again. But for 20% that guy wouldn't allow anyone on his property. Money isn't a factor


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## Biggbear

Martin Looker said:


> Come on up to Gladwin we have lots of Amish sawmills.


We have an Amish Community in East Jordan, they have a mill. But their lumber isn't graded so it won't pass an inspection. Permits require graded lumber.


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## Scout 2

brushbuster said:


> Plenty of hoops to jump through with a saw mill getting rough sawn lumber passed by inspectors.


What I found when I had my sawmill was anything that was used where structral strength was needed you could not use rough sawn. But any sheating like side walls and roofs you could. I saved a bundle even with cheap lumber prices at the time when I built my pole barn. I could cut a lot of 2x4's in a very short order. There are several log cabins that I sawed the logs for in the Alanta area and 2 of them I sawed almost the entire cabin out for them.


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## brushbuster

Scout 2 said:


> What I found when I had my sawmill was anything that was used where structral strength was needed you could not use rough sawn. But any sheating like side walls and roofs you could. I saved a bundle even with cheap lumber prices at the time when I built my pole barn. I could cut a lot of 2x4's in a very short order. There are several log cabins that I sawed the logs for in the Alanta area and 2 of them I sawed almost the entire cabin out for them.


Yup that's pretty accurate. I built my first log home up here using RS 2x4s for interior walls, RS facia boards. My inspector let me get away with 2x10s 12 oc.


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## BulldogOutlander

went to lowes with my stepdad last night to help him get a few sheets of drywall.. the prices i saw made my jaw drop.. $13 for a 4x4x8' pressure treated post! $23 for OSB.. insane! 

heck i got quotes for chain link fencing for my back yard to keep my a-hole dogs in, and i got a quote for over $6k to fence in part of my .5 acre lot!


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## Martin Looker

Check out the price at home depot. Yesterday morning 4x4x8 were 10.00 dollars and there other prices were lower also. Those prices were from West Branch.


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## Scout 2

Martin Looker said:


> Check out the price at home depot. Yesterday morning 4x4x8 were 10.00 dollars and there other prices were lower also. Those prices were from West Branch.


TC Menards have lower prices to if they have any in stock. I need a few deck boards but I guess they will wait until spring. Guy at Menards told me a whie back treated stuff is suppose to start easing up in Dec aas the supplies come back


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## Biggbear

brushbuster said:


> Yup that's pretty accurate. I built my first log home up here using RS 2x4s for interior walls, RS facia boards. My inspector let me get away with 2x10s 12 oc.


Thanks for the tip guys. I will be contacting the building inspector in charlevoix county to find out if I can use RS for non-structual use. If so getting ad much lumber as possible from the local Amish community should help keep cost down.


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## jiggin is livin

sparky18181 said:


> Just so I know what exactly you are referring to. Are you saying metal/steel framing or still the traditional wood framing and rafters


Yes, all metal. No wood at all.



Scout 2 said:


> Was just on the news. Someone stole between 20 and 30000 dollars worth of lumber from a building site over the weekend. Smart guy left finger prints all over and his or her cell phone at the site


Wow, they got away with a whole pickup load!?


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## jiggin is livin

ESOX said:


> As well as the transportation issue. Transportation is 30-40% the retail cost of lumber. For a myriad of reasons, there aren't the number of flatbeds on the road there were two years ago.


Maybe it is a good time for someone to start hauling lumber?


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## Scout 2

jiggin is livin said:


> Yes, all metal. No wood at all.
> 
> 
> 
> Wow, they got away with a whole pickup load!?


2 sheets of plywood


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## Spartan88

ESOX said:


> As well as the transportation issue. Transportation is 30-40% the retail cost of lumber. For a myriad of reasons, there aren't the number of flatbeds on the road there were two years ago.


Finding commercial drivers is a challenge.


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## piscatorial warrior

Sweet deal for someone.





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## ESOX

Spartan88 said:


> Finding commercial drivers is a challenge.


I have an unrestricted CDL A with all endorsements but for Hazmat which I gave up because I dont/want need it. Get unsolicited offers all the time, but I am happy being home every night with 100% paid bennies. I will ocassionaly drive for a guy who pays me $1200.00 + all expenses paid to run his really nice Pete glider to the Dakotas hauling drill pipe and other such drilling necessities that go on a flatbed. 

Sent from my SM-G892A using Michigan Sportsman mobile app


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## Ronnie D

Sticker shock hit me good yesterday, bidding a job that needs a plexiglass wrapper, my usual source laughed when i tried to check his stock ( been out for months) called HD and 125.00 per 4×8 sheet. Had to clarify what i was ordering cause i couldn't believe the pricing. That's almost 4.00 per sq. Ft., i don't pay that much for polished granite.


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## Forest Meister

brushbuster said:


> 1/2 inch osb is 23 bucks a sheet. Unreal.


Anybody notice if the price of OSB has gone up or down lately? The OSB plant in Newberry has a yard full of feedstock to the point they are not accepting any more wood but the plant is shut down. I am told it had to do with exceeding EGLE emissions caps late last year or early this year when they were trying to increase production to meet demand. I believe they have been shut down for two or three weeks. FM


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## brushbuster

Forest Meister said:


> Anybody notice if the price of OSB has gone up or down lately? The OSB plant in Newberry has a yard full of feedstock to the point they are not accepting any more wood but the plant is shut down. I am told it had to do with exceeding EGLE emissions caps late last year or early this year when they were trying to increase production to meet demand. I believe they have been shut down for two or three weeks. FM


Hah, I ran out of my osb stockpile a month ago and had to buy one lousy sheet to finish a job, I paid 40 friggen dollars last month.


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## Luv2hunteup

I’m surprised the semis hauling OSB aren’t escorted by armed military contractors.


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## MallardMaster

That is very curious why the mill isn't running at full production. Seems to me that there is a serious need for it and an opportunity to be running. Then again, probably can't find people to work because they are being paid to stay at home. Time to rip that band-aid off (IMO) and get things moving forward. There are opportunities to be had, just can't find people that want to work.


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## Luv2hunteup

MallardMaster said:


> That is very curious why the mill isn't running at full production. Seems to me that there is a serious need for it and an opportunity to be running. Then again, probably can't find people to work because they are being paid to stay at home. Time to rip that band-aid off (IMO) and get things moving forward. There are opportunities to be had, just can't find people that want to work.


Canada is pretty well shutdown. We import a lot of lumber them so it’s not just within our borders. Costs are up 193% over last year.


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## BumpRacerX

Permits are all pulled, trees are marked off and we're waiting for the excavator to break ground on my new place. 

Already planned on having the excavator pile my logs in an area for a mill to come in and buzz them up. At $8 a pre-cut stud, I'm really thinking about air drying and planing them into something usable for the basement finish. Once I have the Certificate of Occupancy no one cares what you use for the non-structural wall studs as far as a stamp. Flooring and wall paneling maybe. Trim for sure. 

Everything is insane right now.


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## Forest Meister

Do everything you can to see that the excavator does not incorporate dirt with the logs when he moves them. It doesn't take much dirt imbedded in bark to dull a blade, especially on a small band mill. Don't forget to put down some small logs or sticks of wood to pile the logs on. It keeps them clean until they are loaded on the carriage. FM


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## MSUFW07

I had a meeting with our builder last night and he said that at the MPC that he deals with that OSB was going for $45 a sheet. I looked on Lowes app and it was at $38. For what its worth, I was at Menard's in South Lansing Monday and they had treated lumber stacked 3 or 4 bundles high or just about anything you could want it seemed. And Lowes indoor lumber yard looked pretty well stocked too.


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## Forest Meister

Another long one.....Yesterday I served as interpreter, for lack of a better term, for a fellow who wanted some sawlogs to mill primarily into 2x8s, 2x6s, 2x4s and wide sheathing for a large pole barn. Making sure everyone was talking the same language is a story unto itself but not the reason for this post. What follows may provide info or be of interest to those following this topic and are toying with the idea of buying logs to have milled. YMMV

A lot of things had to fall into place but the Readers Digest version is that large diameter red pine was obtained for $120/cord since the buyer was taking a minimum of ~18 cds. of 12' material. The trucker wanted $20/cd to deliver the wood to a small mill only about 10 miles away. The mill, run by the Amish, was charging $.20/bd.ft. and were willing to dispose of the slabs and sawdust. Estimates vary as to how many board feet a cord will produce because it depends on both the diameter of the log and the skill of the sawyer. As a SWAG, 500bf/cd.

Crunch those numbers and the upfront cost to the buyer is $480/Mbf. (thousand board feet) of logs. Once reduced to lumber it will be the buyer's responsibility to get his booty home a dozen miles away. Green lumber is heavy so it will take several trips if he does it himself. Once home it will need to be unloaded, stacked, stickered, and protected from the elements for a year or so to air dry before he builds. Stacking and stickering will require two people to be done safely and efficiently.

A caveat to the $480/Mbf is that if a person needs say, 10Mbf of lumber, it would be a near miracle to get the needed lumber from 10Mbf of logs. A person may well get 10Mbf of lumber, maybe more if the sawyer is skillful, but the near miracle would be getting the needed number of pieces of each and every dimension . Getting an extra cord or so as insurance, is often a good idea. Better safe than sorry, as the old saying goes. FM


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## Luv2hunteup

Good point FM. Stickers should be dry and not green for best results. Align sticker vertically. After that the waiting begins.


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## BumpRacerX

Forest Meister said:


> Another long one.....Yesterday I served as interpreter, for lack of a better term, for a fellow who wanted some sawlogs to mill primarily into 2x8s, 2x6s, 2x4s and wide sheathing for a large pole barn. Making sure everyone was talking the same language is a story unto itself but not the reason for this post. What follows may provide info or be of interest to those following this topic and are toying with the idea of buying logs to have milled. YMMV
> 
> A lot of things had to fall into place but the Readers Digest version is that large diameter red pine was obtained for $120/cord since the buyer was taking a minimum of ~18 cds. of 12' material. The trucker wanted $20/cd to deliver the wood to a small mill only about 10 miles away. The mill, run by the Amish, was charging $.20/bd.ft. and were willing to dispose of the slabs and sawdust. Estimates vary as to how many board feet a cord will produce because it depends on both the diameter of the log and the skill of the sawyer. As a SWAG, 500bf/cd.
> 
> Crunch those numbers and the upfront cost to the buyer is $480/Mbf. (thousand board feet) of logs. Once reduced to lumber it will be the buyer's responsibility to get his booty home a dozen miles away. Green lumber is heavy so it will take several trips if he does it himself. Once home it will need to be unloaded, stacked, stickered, and protected from the elements for a year or so to air dry before he builds. Stacking and stickering will require two people to be done safely and efficiently.
> 
> A caveat to the $480/Mbf is that if a person needs say, 10Mbf of lumber, it would be a near miracle to get the needed lumber from 10Mbf of logs. A person may well get 10Mbf of lumber, maybe more if the sawyer is skillful, but the near miracle would be getting the needed number of pieces of each and every dimension . Getting an extra cord or so as insurance, is often a good idea. Better safe than sorry, as the old saying goes. FM


The economics certainly seem to make it not a great decision with a long wait time. You can expound on this a bit if needed, but what I've read as well plus learned from talking to friends in other areas is that even after you're sawn you may lose some bf during the drying process.

For me, it's more about using the trees that were on the building site as a nod to the site. Brushbuster had some suggestions that really stuck with me after he came out and looked at my place. Be really cool to do bar/countertops. I wanted to use the wood for flooring and wall paneling. My wife has grand visions of her Uncle building all kinds of things out of it for the basement finish in the future. I think she's nuts, but in her defense he's incredibly talented and already planted that seed.


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## Waif

Had Dads estate reroofed.
I'd forgot (almost) about the big white pine we dug and cut roots out and come-a-longed to the ground.
( One windy day the ground was groaning and a peek out back showed that pine leaning towards the shack he lived in before building the house.
We shot the limbs off one side (yes , that was a lot of shooting) and it quit tipping so much . When the wind let up we started digging.)
Pictures of the recent shingle job showed what became of those saw logs boards fortysome years ago.
Still looked fine.


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## Josh R

Prices are crazy, romex went from roughly $250 last fall to over $700 per 1000ft









Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk


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## Shoeman

So between lumber, cars and boat prices... we see hardly any inflation? Anyone look at the prices of prime meats lately? Really!


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## Tilden Hunter

Shoeman said:


> So between lumber, cars and boat prices... we see hardly any inflation? Anyone look at the prices of prime meats lately? Really!


Ammo anyone?


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## bjacobs

Shoeman said:


> So between lumber, cars and boat prices... we see hardly any inflation? Anyone look at the prices of prime meats lately? Really!


Yeah. It is concerning that inflation is potentially staring us right in the face, but nobody wants to acknowledge it.


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## sureshot006

Shoeman said:


> So between lumber, cars and boat prices... we see hardly any inflation? Anyone look at the prices of prime meats lately? Really!


It doesn't seem like inflation to me. More like an explosion.

I havent seen a huge rise in everyday food items overall, but it seems pretty much anything fun is through the roof.

The other day I saw 80/20 ground beef for just under $2/lb. Not the stuff in the meat tube. I bought 12 lbs lol


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## CrawlerHarness

The funny thing is......the Texas freeze hasn't even shown up yet in pricing. 

As I keep telling friends who think this is going to come back this year.....everyone has money. Everyone has cash. And I am talking $200,000 cabins, $400,000 2nd condos in FL, $800,000 lake houses on Lake MI. And that is just my family....not one transaction requiring a loan.


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## sureshot006

CrawlerHarness said:


> The funny thing is......the Texas freeze hasn't even shown up yet in pricing.
> 
> As I keep telling friends who think this is going to come back this year.....everyone has money. Everyone has cash. And I am talking $200,000 cabins, $400,000 2nd condos in FL, $800,000 lake houses on Lake MI. And that is just my family....not one transaction requiring a loan.


It's that crypto money. Sarcastic but not...


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## Fishndude

The US housing market for Sellers is hotter than it has been, ever. I have a friend who owns a lot of real estate. Single Family Residences, apartment buildings, a Sr Living facility, as well as commercial buildings. He, and his Partner are unloading ALL of their Single Family Residences right now. The market is so high that they feel it is peaking, and they are cashing out on SFRs. They think the housing markets will have a significant contraction in the relatively near future - within a year, or two. When the moratoriums on evictions, and foreclosures are lifted, there is going to be a sudden glut in housing.


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## jiggin is livin

sureshot006 said:


> It's that crypto money. Sarcastic but not...


Yes sir. It made a LOT of trailer park millionaires overnight. Not to be rude, but it honestly did. It wasn't hedgefund managers that struck gold on that, it was little Herman using his beer bottle returns to buy crypto. I just wish I would have held what little I had, but I got bored with it and sold it all off after it doubled over a year ago. 

Oh well.


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## jiggin is livin

This is all a big bubble from a sudden increase in cashflow. It will pop, and likely in a big way. 

Just sit back and let these crazy prices be a motivator to sit on your money, the sales they are a comin'.


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## CrawlerHarness

jiggin is livin said:


> This is all a big bubble from a sudden increase in cashflow. It will pop, and likely in a big way.
> 
> Just sit back and let these crazy prices be a motivator to sit on your money, the sales they are a comin'.


Perhaps in the housing market near cities. 

I don't believe so in the cabin/waterfront area. 

I also don't believe so in the desirable areas of the country. You have to remember there are a lot of $200,000 a year jobs that just moved from California and New York and Chicago to "anywhere there is high speed internet".


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## jiggin is livin

CrawlerHarness said:


> Perhaps in the housing market near cities.
> 
> I don't believe so in the cabin/waterfront area.
> 
> I also don't believe so in the desirable areas of the country. You have to remember there are a lot of $200,000 a year jobs that just moved from California and New York and Chicago to "anywhere there is high speed internet".


I was referring more to the massive inflation in damn near everything. But yes, housing too. 

I don't think the remote work is THAT big of a factor, at least in the long term. It probably is a factor right now in the midst of the changes we have gone through in the last year. I don't see that as a bad thing either, it allowed a lot of folks that wanted to get out of the schitt holes to actually do so. I am happy for them in that aspect.


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## BumpRacerX

If I'm understanding lumber correct-

Rough sawn/unstamped lumber is okay for non structural usages in occupied dwellings or for usage in unoccupied accessory buildings? Anyone have any experience building a shed or something of that nature from unstamped? If I wanted to build a storage building for my canoes, could I used pressure treated for the ground contacting portion, and then rough sawn for the rest?


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## d_rek

If pressed for an answer i'd say, "Yes, some markets are definitely inflated or even hyper-inflated right now.", but not the overall economy. 

That being said the feds narrative is "We don't have inflation" so of course we must not have inflation? Don't question the narrative people.


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## kroppe

Strong residential construction data released today. 

Residential construction spending for the past three month is higher than the prior peak before the GFC. I can see strength in spending continuing for some time.


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## kroppe

Random lengths futures much higher than late last year. Materials suppliers are re-opening shuttered plants and increasing capacity in existing plants. Where do people see this in 12-24 months?


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## Botiz

CrawlerHarness said:


> Perhaps in the housing market near cities.
> 
> I don't believe so in the cabin/waterfront area.
> 
> I also don't believe so in the desirable areas of the country. You have to remember there are a lot of $200,000 a year jobs that just moved from California and New York and Chicago to "anywhere there is high speed internet".


It will be interesting to see what happens over time as employers realize they no longer need to pay inflated wages to those employees who are no longer paying inflated living costs. 

The guy or gal who could do it but didn’t want to live in San Fran, can also now do that job from anywhere there is high speed internet. Doing it for 100k might be a nice increase for them.


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## d_rek

Botiz said:


> The guy or gal who could do it but didn’t want to live in San Fran, can also now do that job from anywhere there is high speed internet. Doing it for 100k might be a nice increase for them.


Already seeing a huge normalization of wages in tech. industry across the country. Will be interesting to see how it shifts populations and demographics out of certain parts of the country to others. But will also be interesting to see if the big tech giants who have built up giant campuses in those regions continue to allow remote working in all or some capacity or will start requiring workers back in the office. The irony of that decision will be palpable.


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## TK81

BumpRacerX said:


> If I'm understanding lumber correct-
> 
> Rough sawn/unstamped lumber is okay for non structural usages in occupied dwellings or for usage in unoccupied accessory buildings? Anyone have any experience building a shed or something of that nature from unstamped? If I wanted to build a storage building for my canoes, could I used pressure treated for the ground contacting portion, and then rough sawn for the rest?


I would do that in a heartbeat. Unless you live in a neighborhood with an association. Your boards may walk a bit over time, but look at all the barns that were built with rough sawn. Our cabin was built with rough sawn logs and boards and still looks great 36 years later.


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## BumpRacerX

TK81 said:


> I would do that in a heartbeat. Unless you live in a neighborhood with an association. Your boards may walk a bit over time, but look at all the barns that were built with rough sawn. Our cabin was built with rough sawn logs and boards and still looks great 36 years later.


That has officially become the plan. We've accumulated quite the pile of logs. Once the house is done I'll get Brushbuster or someone else in here with a bandsaw mill. Need to paint the ends with some latex this weekend.


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## MallardMaster

d_rek said:


> Already seeing a huge normalization of wages in tech. industry across the country. Will be interesting to see how it shifts populations and demographics out of certain parts of the country to others. But will also be interesting to see if the big tech giants who have built up giant campuses in those regions continue to allow remote working in all or some capacity or will start requiring workers back in the office. The irony of that decision will be palpable.


Exactly what my thinking has been in regards to office space. There is going to be a LOT of available space in the coming years as people transition to working at home. Personally, working at home is not for me, and I need to be around people. For some though it will work. I used to go to KC for work quite a bit and was right by the Sprint campus. I really wonder what that place will be like if a vast majority of people don't come back. They could probably re-market these places as apartments, as long as they considered adaptive architecture into the design. So there is a potential that not all is lost. This of course only applies to those locations that are located in urban environments. It will certainly be an interesting situation.


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## TK81

Luv2hunteup said:


> Amongst other things that because people are willing to spend money on things they really don’t need. Definitely a sign of good times.


Huh?

It's good to have empty shelves? Maybe I am unable to decipher: "_Amongst other things that because people are willing to spend money on things"_

Now my tool builders are telling me they can't get baseplates, so it's not just controls items, cylinders, sensors, toilet paper, and gallon jugs of distilled water. 

I agree that the market is good, but that doesn't help most of our population or the guys that want to build a barn or a deck.


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## kroppe

Where does everyone think price and availability are going for the upcoming spring building season? 

Will price and availability of building materials and construction contractors be better, the same or worse than 2021? Referring mainly to single family dwelling new construction or major renovation/additions. Not commercial construction. 

Thanks.


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## newaygogeorge

I hope better, had to delay our home build start time from this fall to next spring because of 1st quote pricing. Now on 2nd quotes, they will be better I am assured but until i see the numbers will not know for sure. Both the home builder and pole barn builder assured us the delay will not affect our place in line. Sure hope so, I am officially retired now and our dream of moving north is even more exciting than ever.


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## Forest Meister

Here we go again. Hope nobody waited to buy lumber for a spring project. FM
Lumber Prices Surge as Transport Snags Crimp Canadian Supply - Bloomberg


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## grapestomper

Just got word from our lumber suppliers prices are headed back up. 
2 x 10 went up $5 in the last week around here


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## Night Moves

This is why I bought most of my lumber this fall for a spring project I'm planning. Compared to now I probably saved 3 grand and it probably won't go back down anytime soon.


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## kroppe

Seems that way. March 2022 futures prices are at the same level or higher compared with 2021. Demand is there, supply isn't. Labor and transportation cost are hurdles. Transportation cost increases mean trucks and truck drivers are needed to move product.



https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/random-length-lumber.html


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## kroppe

jjlrrw said:


> Prices are dropping fast and supply is back, was at a lumber yard and they are running out of space for material, 2x4x8 <$4, OSB <$25 some supplies are not dropping as fast I will wait a bit longer before making my purchase.


Home Depot has 7/16 OSB listed at $34 per 4x8 sheet. Seems like these prices are here to stay, or will they come down as production increases?


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## jjlrrw

kroppe said:


> Home Depot has 7/16 OSB listed at $34 per 4x8 sheet. Seems like these prices are here to stay, or will the come down as production increases?


Was at Menards this weekend and 2x4x8's are back up close to $8, didn't check other lumber as they pulled all price tags and you need to punch in the sku numbers to check prices, still seemed like a lot of stock. 

It was a few years ago I purchased 7/16 OSB for $7 a sheet


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## ESOX

Used to be 1/3 to 1/2 the price of lumber was transportation. I wonder what percentage it is today.


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## Luv2hunteup




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## Luv2hunteup

On a bright note of sorts 15 year fixed mortgages are up 50% from its low which may slow expansion.


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## Fishndude

Luv2hunteup said:


> On a bright note of sorts 15 year fixed mortgages are up 50% from its low which may slow expansion.


Yeah, anyone who was waiting for mortgage interest rates to bottom, missed it.


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## BumpRacerX

A year and a half later...anyone want to take any guesses on what the lumber prices do in the next 6 months?


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## Night Moves

We are seeing great volatility in the lumber markets. For now the just going to the lumber store when you want to start a project may be very costly. If you pre buy your lumber though, when the prices are lower, like they were last fall, then the cost of building may be greatly reduced.


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## Macs13

Night Moves said:


> For now the just going to the lumber store when you want to start a project may be very costly.


You've got that right. It cost me something like $30 a sheet for 3/8" plywood on Sunday. 2x4s were still $8.50 a piece. 



Sent from my SM-G988U using Michigan Sportsman mobile app


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## sparky18181

Pretty much cheaper to buy a metal storage shelf than it is to build it with lumber. Have some projects to do but I ll be damned if I’m spending 8.50 for a 2x4.


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## snortwheeze

kroppe said:


> Where does everyone think price and availability are going for the upcoming spring building season?
> 
> Will price and availability of building materials and construction contractors be better, the same or worse than 2021? Referring mainly to single family dwelling new construction or major renovation/additions. Not commercial construction.
> 
> Thanks.


My bros a builder and he's not building his barn....


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## Luv2hunteup

Lumber futures are coming down but still above historical levels.


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## Dirty Sanchez

A


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## Dirty Sanchez

A


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## Lumberman

BumpRacerX said:


> A year and a half later...anyone want to take any guesses on what the lumber prices do in the next 6 months?


They have found their new norm. They will go up abd down a little but $8 2x4’s and $30 plywood us here to stay.

Our only hope is building slows down so much it comes back down.

The funny thing is timber hasn’t moved at all or very little.


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## Luv2hunteup

Lumberman said:


> They have found their new norm. They will go up abd down a little but $8 2x4’s and $30 plywood us here to stay.
> 
> Our only hope is building slows down so much it comes back down.
> 
> The funny thing is timber hasn’t moved at all or very little.


The middle men are doing well in the wood products industry just like in the meat processing industry. Limited competition allows for that to happen. Farmers are still selling in the same price range as before the pandemic. Return on investment for processors have been doing well.


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## jiggin is livin

sparky18181 said:


> Pretty much cheaper to buy a metal storage shelf than it is to build it with lumber. Have some projects to do but I ll be damned if I’m spending 8.50 for a 2x4.


Yup. A metal building is cheaper too. 

Why anyone would build with wood when you can use something better for the same or less is beyond me.

Lumber will come back down to earth eventually, just like everything else. Right now the crooks are raping everyone and getting away with it, for now. 

As with everything else, the real problem is the idiots that keep paying for it.


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## Luv2hunteup

Steel futures went up a similar amount. No deals to be had there either. Hopefully the interest rate increases will reverse prices somewhat. Only time will tell where the new number will settle. Now is not the time to build if you have time to wait.


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## kroppe

Iron ore and hot rolled steel prides are far lower than the recent highs. Inflation is coming down in general at commodity and producer price levels.

Home building however should stay strong for a good few years. Wood building material prices will probably remain high because of high demand from home building.


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## newaygogeorge

We recently finished our first budget/design review with our builder. In comparison to prices this time last year.
Our lumber packages compared to last season are slightly down. Other building type material slightly down, Steel is still slightly high (Pole Barn). Biggest price jump right now is excavating (fuel prices). HVAC stayed the same, Plumbing slightly down but not too much, electrical slightly higher but we did upgrade our package so I thought the increase was a wash.
Over all except for interest rate increases if you work hard at cost reductions/valued pricing in this market compared to last season you will find them as we did.


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## Martin Looker

The lumber companies aren't going broke anytime soon.


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## jmich24

Looking to have an Amish built pole barn this fall. Price didn’t seem outrageous for a 30x40. The cement was 25% of the total cost.

I’d love to learn more about a metal structures, but just don’t have the comfort level vs pole build.


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## newaygogeorge

Just got the word from our builder price of lumber continues to fall, not as fast/far as would be hoped but continued positive movement. Even better our build package will get cost readjustment, so dam glad we drug this out a bit and made the move few months back to a new/young builder who is hungry to get established and we feel has our best interests in hand. Yesterdays call was very reassuring.


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## BuckeyeFootball

newaygogeorge said:


> Just got the word from our builder price of lumber continues to fall, not as fast/far as would be hoped but continued positive movement. Even better our build package will get cost readjustment, so dam glad we drug this out a bit and made the move few months back to a new/young builder who is hungry to get established and we feel has our best interests in hand. Yesterdays call was very reassuring.


PM sent


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## kroppe

So how about lumber? CME random lengths futures are 1/3 of what they were two years ago.

Does this mean more supply is available, or less demand? Peak construction season now and the price is lower than in the recent past. Something is changing.


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## Luv2hunteup

Wholesale prices still have not made it down to the retail level yet. FRED 30 year mortgage just went to 5.78% which will make borrowing more expensive. At least up here, builders are booked for this year. 6 trillion was pumped into the economy since 2020 so bank accounts are still fat and people are still spending. Consumer spending is still high with people spending money from being cooped up during the pandemic. Eventually things will slow but the supply chain is still lagging with the lock down policies in the Far East and people are willing to pay more.


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## kroppe

Luv2hunteup said:


> View attachment 838221
> 
> 
> Wholesale prices still have not made it down to the retail level yet. FRED 30 year mortgage just went to 5.78% which will make borrowing more expensive. At least up here, builders are booked for this year. 6 trillion was pumped into the economy since 2020 so bank accounts are still fat and people are still spending. Consumer spending is still high with people spending money from being cooped up during the pandemic. Eventually things will slow but the supply chain is still lagging with the lock down policies in the Far East and people are willing to pay more.


Luv2 what is your view of the reason CME futures are 1/3 of what they were two years ago? Something is different.


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## Luv2hunteup

kroppe said:


> Luv2 what is your view of the reason CME futures are 1/3 of what they were two years ago? Something is different.


I posted earlier this year on wheat and corn futures with the pending Ukraine invasion. I got in and out quickly but I hate paying short term capital gains. If I see something else that is as obvious play as that I’ll get back into the game but otherwise I’m not a player.


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## kroppe

Luv2hunteup said:


> I posted earlier this year on wheat and corn futures with the pending Ukraine invasion. I got in and out quickly but I hate paying short term capital gains. If I see something else that is as obvious play as that I’ll get back into the game but otherwise I’m not a player.


Interesting. What is your take on CME lumber futures this year, now much lower than recently?


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## Luv2hunteup

kroppe said:


> Interesting. What is your take on CME lumber futures this year, now much lower than recently?


Best guess is holding steady. Tariff roll back is coming in about 60 days. I’m sure we will see another interest rate increase near the end of July.


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## ESOX

kroppe said:


> Interesting. What is your take on CME lumber futures this year, now much lower than recently?


Lots of logs on the deck brought in by logging company owned trucks. Lots of lumber on the pads that they can't get to market fast enough due to RR issues and flatbed truck unavailability. So in short, a supply side glut.


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## jjlrrw

Looking like lumbers prices are heading North again at the retail places


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## Night Moves

I just checked the three main ingredients that I bought for my spring cabin project and my assessment on prices is as follows:
Down 10% since May but still up 20% now from when I bought 90% of my lumber last fall


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