# Red Oaks point system.



## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

With only one hunt in Red Oaks to draw to, where does everyone think that the points will eventually top out at for drawing a tag?

I had three points last year and recieved a 2003 tag. However, I know a few guys that had 3 pte and did not. So this year I figure you would have to have 4 pte to draw. With a sucess rate of 14%, it appears that the topping out will occur at around 7 points. Then again, you have to subtract a percentage of people who will tire and go to the UP as well as the guys that do not put in every years. 

I'm thinking 5 or 6 will be the magic number. It sucks to think that I will have to wait another 5 to 6 years to hunt again, but I have real good bear land in Red Oaks and thats where I want to do my hunting.

Does this logic sound right? 

What do you think the top end will be?


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## Big Game (Feb 7, 2002)

You think the wait is long for bear. You should try having a kennel full of bear dogs that are just as anxious as you are. Of course that is why alot of guys with hounds go to the U.P.


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## stevebrandle (Jan 23, 2000)

It's pretty hard to pattern the drawings with any accuracy. Some hunters drop out others get in and even with the point system luck has a lot to do with getting drawn in a given year. The good thing is eventually, you'll get a tag. Unlike the elk permits where you may never draw in your lifetime.


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## marco (Sep 25, 2002)

Hey Dave it must be nice to own a cabin with bears in your backyard. And Pope and Young buck running wild.  Any Turkey. Nothing for me.


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## GrouseBuster (Apr 18, 2004)

How did you have three points ? I was thinking last year was the first year for the point system. I just purchase the preference point each year. I had heard 8 would be the magic number.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

Grouse,

You would be mistaken, the points system has been in affect for a few more years. 

I apply every year and going into last year I had 3. I sure hope 8 is not the number, way to long between hunts.

Marco,

There are no big bucks where I hunt, only small fork horns. As for the bears, yep they are there. Seen some tracks this weekend. No sightings.

I shot a Tom w/ 4" beard (small) on Saturday. Real fun, called to 2 Toms for an hour but they wouldn'y come in. Finally after an hour of talking back and forth, another Tom came in from behind me and created a little competition. They all three came in only 2 left. Look like deep fried turkey for diner.

Lets get together soon?


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

I think '99 was the year they implemented the point system. I think the max points you can have is 4 unless you got the double point last year which could make it 5.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

Luv2,

Remind me, why was there a double point last year?


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

There was a programming error made last year. Everyone who applied as a party of four and had a chance at drawing was awarded two points.

This group was excluded from last years draw due to human error. Wood &
Water had an article explaining the exact details.


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## GrouseBuster (Apr 18, 2004)

Dang, I thought I was doing good with two points. I guess I'll wait a few more years to apply.


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## jig head (Jan 13, 2003)

this will be my second year for applying there are deffinitly alot of bear in the area where grousebuster and my property is. in my oppinion there are to many I see them quite often and when I run a dozer the next day the ground is covered with tracks.


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## Avidhunter (Feb 23, 2004)

I have 4 pts and still haven't got drawn :sad: I did miss one year tho, so that should be 5 possible excluding double pts. Figured I'd hit this year, but looks like I'm going to have to just put in for a point. rotest_e Jody


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## Luv2hunteup (Mar 22, 2003)

Sorry, I was wrong, PPs began in 2000. See page 3 of 16.

http://www.michigandnr.com/publications/pdfs/huntingwildlifehabitat/guides/04bear.pdf


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## bohunt1 (Feb 10, 2004)

luv2hunteup, I think the max points is 5. you have 3 years to do somthing with them or you lose them  Not that you would have a problem doing somthing with them in 3 years  I hope this helps. I will be posting asking a lot of questions as I plan to draw next year and will be trying a do it yourselfer on state land in the red oak dist.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

bohunt,

If you want, remember to contact me next year should you draw. I've have thought about running two of three baited stands every year for one hunter only. I drew last year so I have a long wait to hunt again. My bear hunting buddies have drawn each in the last three years, so they to have a wait. My brothers only have 3 points; they too will have to wait. 

I was thinking earlier this year about helping out one hunter just so that I could be envolved. I don't think that anyone in my group will be hunting next year. Let me know if your interested. I maintained only two bait stations last year but both where hit by multiple bears every night. I got some cool pics with a trail camera. Took a boar during the first hunt and had another larger bear come in to a deer bait (carrots) during the October hunt. Stands are on both private and state land. 

Just a thought.


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## mountainman (Jun 5, 2002)

this year will be my 1st hunt if i get lucky enough to draw. I have seen bear in two locations in the red oak area,im sure to get a shot off.My wife got crates to fill with the goodies. any other info will be helpfull on the hunt.


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## wildchild (Apr 10, 2003)

Avidhunter said:


> I have 4 pts and still haven't got drawn :sad: I did miss one year tho, so that should be 5 possible excluding double pts. Figured I'd hit this year, but looks like I'm going to have to just put in for a point. rotest_e Jody


if you missed one year you are back at the big ZERO


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## FASTRNU (Jul 2, 2002)

I don't think that is true. I think if you miss 2 consecutive years you return to zero.


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## Big Game (Feb 7, 2002)

Actually it's three consecutive years.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

Yes, 3 years!

Now I know how rumors get started. :lol:


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## 4x4_Hunter (Jan 2, 2002)

Yes guys, it is 3 consecutive years. What I believe really hurts the point system is that you can apply for points in general and not for a specific BMU (if I remember correctly). Meaning, you can just keep applying for points and then once you think you have enough to draw a tag, you can apply for the tag in whatever BMU you want. IMO, I think that you should have to state which BMU you are apply for points for and the points should follow the BMU. All yer thoughts on that... do ya'll agree?


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## mountainman (Jun 5, 2002)

im going through all regulation with local agent.i will post everthing that i find out.


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## Big Game (Feb 7, 2002)

4x4_Hunter said:


> Yes guys, it is 3 consecutive years. What I believe really hurts the point system is that you can apply for points in general and not for a specific BMU (if I remember correctly). Meaning, you can just keep applying for points and then once you think you have enough to draw a tag, you can apply for the tag in whatever BMU you want. IMO, I think that you should have to state which BMU you are apply for points for and the points should follow the BMU. All yer thoughts on that... do ya'll agree?


I guess I don't see how that will make a difference. Maybe I just am not following you closely here. I guess your theory doesn't make sense to me because each BMU is different as far as the amount of points it requires to draw a tag. That is because of the number of people applying is different for each BMU. Now granted popular areas like Red Oak and Newberry require the most points. How will your theory change that?

I'm not arguing with you just trying to understand the method to you madness.


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## 4x4_Hunter (Jan 2, 2002)

Well, let's see...

I had thought about it in some depth before and found that it would be better to have the points follow the BMU each year. Meaning, if you want to apply for only points, you must state which BMU they are for. If you decide to change your BMU of choice the next year, then your points are back to zero. I don't see that it would make a huge difference in the outcome of the drawings but I could see it easily giving more opportunity to those with fewer points. Also, it could mean extra income for the state. They could allow you to purchase points for however many BMU's you want but you can only apply for a tag in one and if you receive that tag, all of your BMu points go back to zero. I know, it doesn't sound very smart to buy double or triple the amount of points knowing that they might all be back to zero. However, I am sure a lot of hunters aren't sure where they might want to hunt 3-5 years in the future. It is basically just an idea that might make handling the tags more understanding (as to how many points it will take to be sure that you will get a tag) and also more income for the state so that they quit griping. Just a thought. It just doesn't sound like hunters are happy with the way it is now. The main thing that I don't like about it is that you don't know when to apply for a tag. You are throwing money out the window if you are applying with 1 point in a BMU that takes an average of 4 or 5 to get awarded a tag. By having the points follow the BMU's, the state could list the amount of points that are held in each BMU which would help the hunter's decision as to where and when to apply.


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## stevebrandle (Jan 23, 2000)

Asigning the points to a BMU would give the DNR and hunter's some more numbers to look at, but why do it if a hunter has no intention of hunting that year. I'm guessing it would require the State to rework the computerized licensing system to seperate the hunters wanting a tag and point purchasers. I could see the potential of applicants being put in the wrong category. 

Too bad we can't "buy" points in larger quantities - 5 for $100, that would be an interesting change.


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## 4x4_Hunter (Jan 2, 2002)

David Shane...

You mentioned in your very first post that you got a 2003 tag for Red Oak last year when having 3 PP's but you knew a few guys that had 3 points that did not get a tag. 

My brother did a lot of calling around to different DNR places to find the correct person to talk to. Finally, he spoke with a lady that stated that she monitors and sets up the drawing stuff in the computers. She told him that every hunter that had 3 PP's and applied for a tag to hunt in the Red Oak BMU, received a tag. He said, "100%?" She said, "Yes!" She also stated that a few with 2 PP's were lucky enough to get a tag also (if they applied for a tag and not just the points). 

So, this makes me wonder if your friends actually applied for a tag and not just points, was it really the Red Oak BMU, and are they sure that the place that input them into the system didn't make a mistake? As far as the DNR lady stated, every hunter with 4 points will receive a tag, everyone with 3 points should receive a tag as long as the number of applicants with 4 and 3 points don't out-number the number of allowed tags. Then some applicants with 2 points may possibly have a chance to get selected. We will have 3 points for next year's application period and we are planning a hunt for 2005. Now, I am wondering if we can go ahead and assume that we will get a tag or not.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

4X4,

I definity had 3 points and recieved a license. I will have to go back and ask (actually two guys) and see if they informed me wrong. Maybe they missed a years and only have had two, but for some unknown reason, did not want to admit to it. I dought that will be the case. 

As for what you where told, God I hope that it is true. That would means that there is a good chance that the top end points needed to draw in RO would be 3. It sounds great but based on the number of applications recieved for R.O. and the amount of tags awarded, it does'nt add up. That is unless all the people putting in for RO as their choice miss alot of years. 

I'll check and see what their points are at.


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## Bob S (Mar 8, 2000)

I am going to try to explain the Red Oak points needed for a draw. This will be based on the figures from last year. This is a *hypothetical* example, with rounded off numbers based on last years numbers being used. The point system started in 2000. Everyone with me so far?

Year 2000, number of applicants 11,800. Number of permits 1700. Everyone starts with no points as this is the first year. 1700 draw permits in 2000. 

Year 2001, the same 11,800 hunters apply. 10,100 who were unsuccessful in 2000 have 1 point. The 1700 who drew in 2000 have ZERO points. Another 1700 permits are issued in 2001. This 1700 came from the hunters with 1 point. 

Year 2002, the same 11,800 hunters apply. The 1700 hunters who drew in 2001 have ZERO points. The 1700 hunters who drew in 2000 have 1 point. The remaining 8400 hunters have 2 points. The 2002 draw comes from the hunters with 2 points.

Year 2003, the same 11,800 hunters apply. The 1700 hunters who drew in 2002 have ZERO points. The 1700 hunters who drew in 2001 have 1 point. The 1700 hunters who drew in 2000 are now up to 2 points. All hunters who have applied since 2000 and have not drawn have 3 points. That number is 6700 hunters. A draw of 1700 permits comes from the 6700 applicants with 3 points. 

It is now 2004. There are 1700 permits again this year for Red Oak. All hunters who drew in 2003 have ZERO points. Hunters who drew in 2002 have 1 point. Hunters who drew in 2001 have 2 points. Hunters who drew in 2000 have 3 points. Hunters who have applied each year and have not drawn will have 4 points. That figure will be about 5000 hunters. This years draw of 1700 permits will come from those 5000 hunters with 4 points. 

There is no top end to the points. They will continue to accumulate until all hunters with the highest points have drawn and returned to ZERO. As long as the number of permits and applicants in Red Oak remain close to consistent. Each applicant will draw a permit about every 7 years.

For those who already understood the system, sorry for the long post. For those who were confused, I hope this helped.


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

Very good Bob, I did not have the patience to go through all of that, especially since my typing skills lack.


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## stevebrandle (Jan 23, 2000)

Bob S.

I applaud your data and hope this isn't the begining of QBM. :lol:


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## GrouseBuster (Apr 18, 2004)

Is there any way to check your total on line with the DNR ? Last year we bought preference points as well as this year. I still have both receipts. This year I received a drawing card back in the mail that says " Your total preference point total for the 2004 bear drawing is 1 ".


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## davidshane (Feb 29, 2004)

GB,

You can definity check your points total on line through the DNR website. Sorry I do not have the link but it is easy to find. 

I believe your card is simply indicating that you recieved one point this year, it does not reflex your total.

If you had two comming into this year and just recieved one more, that next year you will be in great shape to draw in the Red Oaks if that is your desired area. Good luck.


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## stevebrandle (Jan 23, 2000)

The page to see how many points you have is disabled right now. I'm guessing that since the drawing results come out on the DNR website Monday, the point totals are being updated. Last year, some of us learned if we drew a permit or not a little early because they increased the point total before the actual drawing results were posted. If you gained a point then it was a clue that you didn't draw a permit.


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## wildchild (Apr 10, 2003)

Sorry :lol: I really thought if i missed a year i would go back to zero.
Didnt mean to confuse anyone. 
Thanks for the info


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## 4x4_Hunter (Jan 2, 2002)

Bob S... I know you hunt close to us and as much as I agree with all of your hunting practices, I can't agree with your numbers with the point stuff. Sure, what you said makes perfect sense. However, not all 11,800 hunters are starting with zero points. I know you said this was hypathetical. Going through your numbers, there are 6700 applicants that will have 3 points when applying. I bet it isn't even close to half that number. If it was how you state it, and the 1700 tags go to the applicants with the most points first, then how do those with 3 points get a tag? I would venture to say that of the 11,800 applicants, I would be surprised if more than 1000 of them have more than 3 points. 

This is why I suggested earlier in this post that the points should be selected for a specific BMU and not in general. This way, the DNR could post how many applicants applied and how many points there were. For example, there are 11,800 applicants this year: 6000 of them are applying with 0 points, 2000 of them with 1 point, 1500 of them with 2 points, 1000 of them with 3 points, 800 of them with 4 points, and the remaining with more than 4 points. Then everyone would understand the point system perfectly. I think I understand the process pretty well but what I don't understand is how many people are applying with how many points. So far, I haven't heard of anyone that had 3 points and applied for a tag not getting one for this year or last in the Red Oak BMU. So, what the DNR rep told me has so far held true.


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## faceman_19 (Sep 30, 2003)

Welp, I want to first say that I am just a messenger, so don't shoot me.. and this is the info that I had to nearly pound out of the reps from the DNR, Livonia Operations Office (supposedly, the people I spoke with are the direct thinktank for the bear lottery.. yeah, I know, supposedly is the key word).. so, anyway, this is what I was told...

For the year 2003, in the Red Oak district, 0% of applicants with 0 and 1 points got tags. 2.5% of applicants with 2 pts got tags and 100% of applicants with 3 pts got tags. I also asked about 4 pts or higher??? and they said there we NO people that applied with 4 or more points. 

So, with the info I was told and the info I am reading on the forum, looks like it's gonna be awfully difficult to plan any vacation time for September prior to June 7th without some concrete statistics from the DNR. I don't understand why the DNR cannot simply provide the previous year's info (granted variables change, but it is at least something to get an idea) in a statictical format showing percentages of awarded tages per accurred pts per BMU. Seems awfully simple to me... am I missing something here....  

Orange Crush


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## NEMichsportsman (Jul 3, 2001)

faceman_19 said:


> I don't understand why the DNR cannot simply provide the previous year's info (granted variables change, but it is at least something to get an idea) in a statictical format showing percentages of awarded tages per accurred pts per BMU. Seems awfully simple to me... am I missing something here....


That would be great, but I don't expect to see it happen.


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## snowmobiler7c (Jun 16, 2004)

Well, i have 4 points now still waiting for the tag. Been applying for the hunt in redoak since 1999. Drew a tag in 2000 when the preference point system started for the baraga unit, only because the clerk screwed up and entered the info wrong when it was suppose to be for redoak. But anyways thats over and now i have 4 points. I could have had a better chance this year but invited a buddy to join my party becuase i thought it went by who had the highest points in the party drew the tag.  opps. Wont make that mistake again. Cant wait till next year maybe i can get lucky and try bear hunting for the first time.

mark


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## Elk Guide (Dec 19, 2000)

faceman_19......I don't know who you talked to in Livonia but the office in Lansing does all draws not Livonia......I talked directly to the man who does them and i can tell you that there were 9 people with 5 points who applied and drew bear tags in Red Oak in 04.....Also 492 people who had 4 points who applied and drew in Red Oak.....Also 1900 who applied with 3 points and of them 66% drew a bear tag in red Oak.....How ever no one with 2 points or less drew a tag in Red Oak........So who ever gave you that info didnt know what they were talking about,but i hope this clears that up......thanks Carl


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