# The real reason for low water levels?



## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

So whats your theory, it wasn't that dry of a year, we have seen much worse. There wasn't brown grass everywhere, no big fires so it can't just lack of rain/snow/ice can it? 

One buddy of mine thinks its companies like Nestle, bottling water, another thinks they are pouring water out into the Mississippi thru the Chicago canal, another thinks its just part of the natural cycle...what say you?


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## someone11 (Mar 15, 2009)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> So whats your theory, it wasn't that dry of a year, we have seen much worse. There wasn't brown grass everywhere, no big fires so it can't just lack of rain/snow/ice can it?
> 
> One buddy of mine thinks its companies like Nestle, bottling water, another thinks they are pouring water out into the Mississippi thru the Chicago canal, another thinks its just part of the natural cycle...what say you?


We had a very mild winter and a very dry summer. Lower Michigan was the worse ive ever seen it.

No big fires...Duck Lake fire?


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

someone11 said:


> We had a very mild winter and a very dry summer. Lower Michigan was the worse ive ever seen it.
> 
> No big fires...Duck Lake fire?


Water has been going down steadily for years...and that fire was much smaller than the past few years fires up there no? And no, we've had WAY drier years down here, fires along the freeways, brown grass everywhere...it wasn't that bad down here. My lawn only got kinda brown for a short period.

My point is these now record breaking low water levels may not be from just a few dry years and mild winters


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## Nick D. (Aug 7, 2011)

I think there are a lot of factors contributing to the low water. My pond is down at least 4' this summer, which is completely filled with rain and snow run off. What's weird is that we lost about 9-12" in less than a week in Lake Huron. Even when the wind changes, it only affects it by a couple inches.


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## limige (Sep 2, 2005)

Its been proven we are loosing water through the St Clair and Detroit rivers much more rapidly than in the past.

Couple that with no ice last winter little rainfall and you have our issue.

Now the big question is why are we getting so little rainfall.

Some say it cycles but I and others suspect our government and others keeping the sky's clear for satellite surveillance and shuttle launches ect. The government may not control the weather but you better believe they can affect it.

Why else has the rain dried up, you really buy into the cycles excuse?

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## someone11 (Mar 15, 2009)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> Water has been going down steadily for years...and that fire was much smaller than the past few years fires up there no?
> 
> My point is these now record breaking low water levels may not be from just a few dry years and mild winters


Yes water has been going down, but its extra low this year. When you have a very mild winter its never good for water levels. Ice and runoff/meltoff helps tremendously. Add on top of that a month of drought in SW MI, not good at all. Check this out... http://www.sooeveningnews.com/article/20120830/NEWS/120839964/1001

As for the fire... "Current Estimated Size: 21,069 acres &#8212; The Duck Lake Fire is the third-largest wildfire in modern history, after the 25,000-acre Mack Lake Fire (1980) and the 72,000-acre Seney Fire (1976)." MI DNR website


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

limige said:


> Its been proven we are loosing water through the St Clair and Detroit rivers much more rapidly than in the past.
> 
> Couple that with no ice last winter little rainfall and you have our issue.
> 
> ...


Cycles are normal yes, but I do think there is more to it than that, but not chemtrails or HAARP.

Another theory is that the lake bottoms are rising from the compaction of the glaciers but I would think it would push water outwards causing flooding as well as out to the ocean if that was what was happening.


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## Nick D. (Aug 7, 2011)

Sorry, couldn't help myself


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

someone11 said:


> Yes water has been going down, but its extra low this year. When you have a very mild winter its never good for water levels. Ice and runoff/meltoff helps tremendously. Add on top of that a month of drought in SW MI, not good at all. Check this out... http://www.sooeveningnews.com/article/20120830/NEWS/120839964/1001
> 
> As for the fire... "Current Estimated Size: 21,069 acres  The Duck Lake Fire is the third-largest wildfire in modern history, after the 25,000-acre Mack Lake Fire (1980) and the 72,000-acre Seney Fire (1976)." MI DNR website


a drought in one area of the State is not going to cause such a drastic loss.


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## someone11 (Mar 15, 2009)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> a drought in one area of the State is not going to cause such a drastic loss.


It was throughout the whole state, some way worse than others. I was just using southwest MI as an extreme example.


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## norton shores killer (Oct 24, 2009)

big brothers always watching!


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## Nick D. (Aug 7, 2011)

Drought and other geological events can account for the gradual decline in water levels, but what caused it to drop so much so fast at the end of summer?


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

someone11 said:


> It was throughout the whole state, some way worse than others. I was just using southwest MI as an extreme example.


and I am telling you, from someone who lives down here, the "drought" has been MUCH worse in years past, it was just "dry" for a while. There have been years when the grass crunches when you walk on it, sides of the highways are black from cigarettes being tossed out, etc. It was nowhere near that bad here this year.


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## sswhitelightning (Dec 14, 2004)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> If you added global changes, season changes, starving southern crop farmers, and several other conspiracy theories i would have sworn my dad got a new screen name.
> 
> My neck of the woods was void of rain all summer, whereas my parents had enough to keep corn alive. I guess with the mild winters over several years, lack of great lakes freezing and evaporation, and the above mentioned with summer drought and more water leaving through detroit and chicago would be my guess.


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## TNL (Jan 6, 2005)

someone11 said:


> We had a very mild winter and a very dry summer. Lower Michigan was the worse ive ever seen it.
> 
> No big fires...Duck Lake fire?


This.

No snow, coupled with record high temps in July and August led to advanced evaporation of the big lakes. Rainfall has also been way below seasonal average.

We haven't had "good" water since the '86 season when we had something like 12" of rain in less than a week. The water has been down - like 3 feet for a very long time now. It has DRAMATICALLY changed waterfowling here in West Michigan...and NOT for the better.

FWIW - I subscribe to the fact that the Corps screwed up when dredging the St. Clair river and now the flow is just too much for the upper lakes to sustain reasonable water levels. It's way more than any Mississippi diversion, Nestle, etc., combined. It affects shipping, marinas, lake frontage,
beaches, and on and on. And I don't ever see it getting any better.


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

Nick D. said:


> Drought and other geological events can account for the gradual decline in water levels, but what caused it to drop so much so fast at the end of summer?


My buddy swears they are letting way more out than they are telling us to keep the Mississippi high enough to run barges, and it WAS a drought out that way this year. He also swears he saw Lake St Clair raise about 2 feet back in the 90s over the course of a few days to facilitate the largest ship ever built on the Great Lakes to get out and when it got thru to the St Lawrence, the water dropped just as fast when they opened up the sluices on the chicago canals. :yikes:


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## Duckman1 (Oct 14, 2004)

Drop at end of summer? Continued hot, sunny weather makes the water evaporate. Early warm spring. Last summer we had many days of north direction winds. This summer to much southwest/ west hot wind. The entire Great Lakes region is in drought mode. We should be lucky, it doesn't sound as bad here as in some other states just to the west of us.


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

TNL said:


> This.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


very plausible


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

sswhitelightning said:


> If you added global changes, season changes, starving southern crop farmers, and several other conspiracy theories i would have sworn my dad got a new screen name.
> 
> My neck of the woods was void of rain all summer, whereas my parents had enough to keep corn alive. I guess with the mild winters over several years, lack of great lakes freezing and evaporation, and the above mentioned with summer drought and more water leaving through detroit and chicago would be my guess.


I was driving all over most of the lower this summer, corn looked great everywhere, even in areas it normally is not as nice as it is the the lower half of the lower half (I was not in the lower SW though), and I didn't see much irrigating going on. I think the drought in this area was over hyped, there is a man made mechanical reason contributing to it is my guess.


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## Nick D. (Aug 7, 2011)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> I was driving all over most of the lower this summer, corn looked great everywhere, even in areas it normally is not as nice as it is the the lower half of the lower half (I was not in the lower SW though), and I didn't see much irrigating going on. I think the drought in this area was over hyped, there is a man made mechanical reason contributing to it is my guess.


In Huron county, the yield is a little over 50% for corn according to the farmers I talked to. They said some fields wouldn't even be worth harvesting. Some of the fields near me looked more like sorghum. 

www.offshoretackle.com


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## limige (Sep 2, 2005)

Many fields by us got mold issues from the rain when it finally came. Beans got root rot.

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## someone11 (Mar 15, 2009)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> and I am telling you, from someone who lives down here, the "drought" has been MUCH worse in years past, it was just "dry" for a while. There have been years when the grass crunches when you walk on it, sides of the highways are black from cigarettes being tossed out, etc. It was nowhere near that bad here this year.


Ill agree to disagree sir. Corn was S**T this year where im from and the grass was dead ALL summer. Ive never seen grass dead for so long. My dad said he went to a corn field of his buddies, grabbed an "ear of corn" and he said there was nothing there. Im from St Joe/Benton Harbor area BTW.


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## Shiawassee_Kid (Nov 28, 2000)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> So whats your theory, it wasn't that dry of a year, we have seen much worse. There wasn't brown grass everywhere, no big fires so it can't just lack of rain/snow/ice can it?
> 
> One buddy of mine thinks its companies like Nestle, bottling water, another thinks they are pouring water out into the Mississippi thru the Chicago canal, another thinks its just part of the natural cycle...what say you?


were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp (thankfully, didnt have to mow but 3-4 times this summer.

worst snowmobile winter in history. that says no snow ANYWHERE around the great lakes as i like to travel to ride and i had to travel to grand marais and marquette to hit marginal snow. 

UP usually gets 250" a year and they got like 50". this all adds up to low lake levels....low lake levels means our rivers have no back pressure...no back pressure means the water runs out of our ground....dry ground means every little rain we get runs right thru/absorbs.

and P.S., try to tell a farmer that this year wasn't that dry...


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## ih772 (Jan 28, 2003)

TNL said:


> This.
> 
> No snow, coupled with record high temps in July and August led to advanced evaporation of the big lakes. Rainfall has also been way below seasonal average.
> 
> ...


This is what I believe as well. Not some crazy conspiracy theory about govco being able to manipulate the wx.


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## ih772 (Jan 28, 2003)

Nick D. said:


> Sorry, couldn't help myself


What's sad is I can tell what brand and model HF tranciever that is just from looking at the back. :lol:

Its a Kenwood TS-440.


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## spoonfed (Jan 8, 2011)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp (thankfully, didnt have to mow but 3-4 times this summer.
> 
> worst snowmobile winter in history. that says no snow ANYWHERE around the great lakes as i like to travel to ride and i had to travel to grand marais and marquette to hit marginal snow.
> 
> ...


Yeah that.

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## DGF (Nov 23, 2000)

What little rain we did get is often lake effect. 

Take a glass of water from your bath tub and pour it back in. How much did the water level rise?

-Dan


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## Spartan_dude (Sep 9, 2011)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> I was driving all over most of the lower this summer, corn looked great everywhere, even in areas it normally is not as nice as it is the the lower half of the lower half (I was not in the lower SW though), and I didn't see much irrigating going on. I think the drought in this area was over hyped, there is a man made mechanical reason contributing to it is my guess.



I don't know what parts of the state you were looking at. I'm originally from a farm in Huron County and corn took a big hit as said above. For work I get around the state to Ionia county was hurting to and corn in Coldwater was so bad it looked like sweet corn. A few places by Ingham county were ok they got more rain through that area. All the farmers I work with/for took a hit some a lot more than others. Overhyped in your opinion but not many people seem to agree. 


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## TheWrench (Jan 29, 2009)

O canada!!!!!


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Our corn looked the worse I have ever seen it this year. We are talking farmers getting 15-30 bushel an acre around here. Hay was non existent. It was bad. I do believe the great lakes however are dropping because of man made occurrences. As far as snow....the western U.P. is the only area last year that got "average" snow (Keweenaw area reported around 160" for the year.


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## walleyeman2006 (Sep 12, 2006)

Mississipi and over dredging of the st clair rivers.....anything going down the miss through a totally man made structure doesnt help......that being said this bottling of water idea is funny as hell.....the amount of water in just one inch of the entire great lakes is in trillions of gallons.....


_Posted from Michigan-sportsman.com App for Android_


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## [email protected] (Mar 13, 2012)

limige said:


> Its been proven we are loosing water through the St Clair and Detroit rivers much more rapidly than in the past.
> 
> Couple that with no ice last winter little rainfall and you have our issue.
> 
> ...


Are u talking about bay ice? Explain plz. The water levels have been cycling for thousands of years. It just happens to be this way now. Our grandkids could have record high water levels. Something we will never know. Come on rain!! SHRUBBY


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## field-n-feathers (Oct 20, 2008)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp.


LOL! I was thinking that same exact thing. 

It seems like we just spoke of water levels in the spring of 2011. At that time, the water level in my favorite private land marsh was up probably 2 feet higher than I had ever seen it in almost 25 years. From that point....it's been down hill to the exact opposite end of the spectrum. There were areas in this marsh that you would go over your waders if you weren't careful. It is now COMPLETELY gone.


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## The Doob (Mar 4, 2007)

_ Our grandkids could have record high water levels. Something we will never know. _

Only true if you were born after 1986 - we had 19" of rain that September that sent Lake levels to record highs according to the Army Corp of Engineers lake level charts. (we hunted in waist deep water in standing corn fields :yikes:- the ducks loved it).
Those same charts indicate that we have lost nearly 6' of water since that time. However, 1986 was 6' higher than 1964 which was the record low, soon to be eclipsed by spring 2013.

The Great Lakes drain half of Canada so if there is no snow/rain in that area, it dramatically affects us. So I am more of a believer in that natural causes argument with a small acknowledgement that the St. Clair dredging (now causing depths to 100') and outflow of the river there may have a small affect on the overall lake levels.

I guess we need to build a pipeline from Devils Lake - which is expanding and swallowing small towns - to our lakes and solve both problems :mischeif:


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## ahartz (Dec 28, 2000)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> My buddy swears they are letting way more out than they are telling us to keep the Mississippi high enough to run barges, and it WAS a drought out that way this year. He also swears he saw Lake St Clair raise about 2 feet back in the 90s over the course of a few days to facilitate the largest ship ever built on the Great Lakes to get out and when it got thru to the St Lawrence, the water dropped just as fast when they opened up the sluices on the chicago canals. :yikes:


impossible. Do you know how large the conveyance needed, pipe, canal etc...to move around that much water, that quickly. There is not that kind of manipulation possible. 

Consider this...with all the political influence these days don't you think if "they" could keep water levels higher, they would. Half loaded freighters, tourism impacts, etc....if they could they would...they can't.....Andy


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## casscityalum (Aug 27, 2007)

Spartan_dude said:


> I don't know what parts of the state you were looking at. I'm originally from a farm in Huron County and corn took a big hit as said above. For work I get around the state to Ionia county was hurting to and corn in Coldwater was so bad it looked like sweet corn. A few places by Ingham county were ok they got more rain through that area. All the farmers I work with/for took a hit some a lot more than others. Overhyped in your opinion but not many people seem to agree.
> 
> 
> Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine


All depends. Was with a customer yesterday doing yield checks in mid/northern sanilac county and we got 176 bu/ac. Was on the phone with a farmer in Jackson county and he said they averaged about 100. He grows pioneer so that may be the problem lol


Bev- what area did you drive? The rain was horrible this year. Yes the "55" mph drive by it looked good but until you get out and walk into a field there's no way to tell. We didn't get rain at the right reproduction and vegetative stages for the crop. Yes rain helped green the plant up but color alone does not mean good corn. 


St Claire river and the lack of.freezing and snow is my thoughts 

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## augerin (Aug 7, 2012)

This combined with a warm winter & Lack of precipitation....

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wiscon...eat-lakes-water-levels-f76ug5a-170854881.html


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## skycarp10 (Oct 14, 2012)

Ice Cover is a valuable component to maintaining water levels in the Great Lakes. More cover cuts down on the amount of water lost due to evapo-transpiration. Add the lack of ice cover to the dry weather and this is what happens. The Great Lakes also exhibit seasonal fluctuation. The high water periods tend to occur in late July and late January. On Oct. 12th Lake Huron dipped below the record low level for this month and I would not be surprised if we hit more record lows as the year progresses.


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## Duke (Oct 6, 2000)

The Doob said:


> _ Our grandkids could have record high water levels. Something we will never know. _
> 
> Only true if you were born after 1986 - we had 19" of rain that September that sent Lake levels to record highs according to the Army Corp of Engineers lake level charts. (we hunted in waist deep water in standing corn fields :yikes:- the ducks loved it).
> Those same charts indicate that we have lost nearly 6' of water since that time. However, 1986 was 6' higher than 1964 which was the record low, soon to be eclipsed by spring 2013.
> ...


Everything true except for the size of the Great Lakes Watershed- it is actually very small and only extends approx. 100 miles or so into Canada which is much, much bigger than that. So we don't get much water from anywhere except the sky directly above the Great Lakes. 

Hillbilly- Unfortunately, all of the more sensational claims of water level influences amount to virtually zero of actual impact. Not very stimulating for barstool theory throwing, I know. But, if you really are interested and want the answers, as you know you probably will have rely on at least some scientific data & research- at least more than what your "buddy swears" is the truth! I happen to be in the business of monitoring Great Lakes water levels, so I'd be happy to try to answer any specific questions but of course you don't have to take my word for it and I'd recommend checking it out for yourselves.


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

Nick D. said:


> In Huron county, the yield is a little over 50% for corn according to the farmers I talked to. They said some fields wouldn't even be worth harvesting. Some of the fields near me looked more like sorghum.
> 
> www.offshoretackle.com


hm, I didnt get over into the the thumb so I can't comment on that but another buddy said the corn at Fish Point looked good, did they not get the ears then, just the green?


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

walleyeman2006 said:


> Mississipi and over dredging of the st clair rivers.....anything going down the miss through a totally man made structure doesnt help......that being said this bottling of water idea is funny as hell.....the amount of water in just one inch of the entire great lakes is in trillions of gallons.....
> 
> 
> _Posted from Michigan-sportsman.com App for Android_


yeah I think the dredging is the biggest factor, especially when you consider Lake Erie is something like 20 inches above normal and everything above is record lows. Yeah the bottling alone wouldn't make much of a dent but it could be causing problems with ground water levels, at least locally.


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp (thankfully, didnt have to mow but 3-4 times this summer.
> 
> worst snowmobile winter in history. that says no snow ANYWHERE around the great lakes as i like to travel to ride and i had to travel to grand marais and marquette to hit marginal snow.
> 
> ...


I must have been, South east I, Northwest and everything I drove through to go between the areas countless times, I never saw it like I have many times worse in years past and the corn, at least the green, looked great, we were even commenting many times that it was surprising. Must have been locally much worse in the few areas you guys are saying it was bad (SW, Thumb)


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

[email protected] said:


> Are u talking about bay ice? Explain plz. The water levels have been cycling for thousands of years. It just happens to be this way now. Our grandkids could have record high water levels. Something we will never know. Come on rain!! SHRUBBY
> 
> 
> Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine


Recorded record highs were actually in 86


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

ahartz said:


> impossible. Do you know how large the conveyance needed, pipe, canal etc...to move around that much water, that quickly. There is not that kind of manipulation possible.
> 
> Consider this...with all the political influence these days don't you think if "they" could keep water levels higher, they would. Half loaded freighters, tourism impacts, etc....if they could they would...they can't.....Andy


I think they have more tonnage rolling on the Mississippi and keeping that flowing does not hamper the shipping on the GL's, yet. Mississippi flows through many more states than the Great Lakes, so yeah, political influence to divert water would be greater than influence to keep it here.


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## Beverly Hillbilly (Aug 30, 2003)

Duke said:


> Everything true except for the size of the Great Lakes Watershed- it is actually very small and only extends approx. 100 miles or so into Canada which is much, much bigger than that. So we don't get much water from anywhere except the sky directly above the Great Lakes.
> 
> Hillbilly- Unfortunately, all of the more sensational claims of water level influences amount to virtually zero of actual impact. Not very stimulating for barstool theory throwing, I know. But, if you really are interested and want the answers, as you know you probably will have rely on at least some scientific data & research- at least more than what your "buddy swears" is the truth! I happen to be in the business of monitoring Great Lakes water levels, so I'd be happy to try to answer any specific questions but of course you don't have to take my word for it and I'd recommend checking it out for yourselves.


Yeah unabashed condescension noticed. I have a degree in the field of Resource management with emphasis on hydrology from the premier school on said subject, I understand all the science, but we all know how often scientific conclusions are flat out BS (unless your job depends on it). I never said I agreed with all their theories but I do believe there is more to it than cycles, precipitation, etc. THIS TIME. Dredging of St Clair No.1, diversion to Mississippi no. 2 (unproven but acknowledged by more than quacks), and the rest I agree are pure conspiratorial speculation


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## sswhitelightning (Dec 14, 2004)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> yeah I think the dredging is the biggest factor, especially when you consider Lake Erie is something like 20 inches above normal and everything above is record lows.


Anyone have a take on this I heard Erie was low too. Just curious since its on the table



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## Shiawassee_Kid (Nov 28, 2000)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> I must have been, South east I, Northwest and everything I drove through to go between the areas countless times, I never saw it like I have many times worse in years past and the corn, at least the green, looked great, we were even commenting many times that it was surprising. Must have been locally much worse in the few areas you guys are saying it was bad (SW, Thumb)


hopefully your just stirring the pot. your absolutely clueless otherwise. i've been all over the state and thru 6 other states in the midwest since august. I'm pretty sure this is the worst drought conditions i have seen in my lifetime.

my local river is at its lowest point in my LIFETIME. (42yr).

heres some numbers. just so you can see comparisons (central US). this was rainfall over 6mo periods centered on august for the last 40yrs. just scanning the numbers you get the jist of it. some years had lower rainfall but we were sitting on epic water levels in previous years so the result was not as noticeable.

1960,21.30
1961,28.06
1962,20.38
1963,23.60
1964,25.53
1965,23.54
1966,20.28
1967,24.94
1968,24.14
1969,23.20
1970,25.61
1971,19.59
1972,23.92
1973,30.74
1974,26.67
1975,26.36
1976,20.92
1977,25.65
1978,24.77
1979,28.46
1980,23.48
1981,28.47
1982,24.93
1983,24.43
1984,24.42
1985,24.75
1986,20.33
1987,20.60
1988,16.65
1989,26.26
1990,26.97
1991,21.42
1992,23.07
1993,26.26
1994,25.32
1995,26.60
1996,27.87
1997,25.80
1998,30.14
1999,20.79
2000,24.42
2001,23.16
2002,26.90
2003,26.89
2004,28.45
2005,21.18
2006,24.33
2007,20.58
2008,29.37
2009,28.66
2010,26.79
2011,29.94
2012,18.21


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## quack head (Oct 23, 2007)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp (thankfully, didnt have to mow but 3-4 times this summer.
> 
> worst snowmobile winter in history. that says no snow ANYWHERE around the great lakes as i like to travel to ride and i had to travel to grand marais and marquette to hit marginal snow.
> 
> ...


I agree. Or it's the Chinese agin.


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## Boyd (Aug 19, 2006)

It hasn't been that dry? Have you watched the news at all??? There is a huge drought and rainfall in MI was down this year.


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## Duke (Oct 6, 2000)

Beverly Hillbilly said:


> Yeah unabashed condescension noticed. I have a degree in the field of Resource management with emphasis on hydrology from the premier school on said subject, I understand all the science, but we all know how often scientific conclusions are flat out BS (unless your job depends on it). I never said I agreed with all their theories but I do believe there is more to it than cycles, precipitation, etc. THIS TIME. Dredging of St Clair No.1, diversion to Mississippi no. 2 (unproven but acknowledged by more than quacks), and the rest I agree are pure conspiratorial speculation


Sorry if you took offense, it wasn't intentional and I highly appreciate your interest and informed background in the subject. I certainly did not mean to insult your intelligence or education. I tried to say that you do not need to believe all the science, but do keep up with some healthy doses especially on subject matters that are apolitical.

BUT, St. Clair dredging is acknowledged to have a ~ 20" impact. This is a huge amount, but it has been at play for many decades, and the impact is immediately apparent downstream. There is no mystery here. The Chicago diversion accounts for only ~ 2" of lake level and has been ongoing for over 100 years. The limits placed on Chicago's diversion were set in a US Supreme court ruling, so they are fairly well monitored and regulated- not something they are likely fooling around with. Not too mention there are Canadian diversions INTO the Great Lakes that are almost as old as Chicago, and happen to put more in than what Chicago takes out.

Crop or lawn condition is not a good indicator of a region-wide water balance system. Can they provide hints, yes, but even in the middle of the worst drought in 24 years, 1 inch of rain from one localized thunderstorm can green it back up, cause a growth spurt and make all appear well again. Meanwhile soils were so dry that all water was used by the plants and nothing infiltrated. I spoke with a farmer and extension agent who said this is exactly what happened this year. In irrigated crop fields this year the consumptive rate of water use was 100% - measured with lysimeters. Not a drop of the irrigated water made it past the root zone or ran off in the heavily irrigated SW part of the state with generally sandy soils.

So, that leaves us with natural cycles/causes. We have outstanding data for 150 years which is unheard of. But of course that is just a blink of the eye on the history of the Lakes, which have seen significantly lower and higher levels than anything seen in the last 150.


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## KLR (Sep 2, 2006)

http://youtu.be/Nb9yu6dljAU


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## TSS Caddis (Mar 15, 2002)

field-n-feathers said:


> LOL! I was thinking that same exact thing.


I'm possibly the cause of low water since I watered for 8 hours a night and had green grass all summer:lol:


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## just ducky (Aug 23, 2002)

I hear rumor that a certain group or person who frequents this site snuck into a certain lake in the UP to hunt, which has been rumored to be sacred to the native americans, and which shall remain nameless (Santiago), and we are all now paying the price for this , selfish, sacreligious act. So let this be a lesson to you out there who dare tread on such sacred indian ground.

But it's just water....Hey, how about those Tigers?


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## TSS Caddis (Mar 15, 2002)

I vote we remove the asian carp barrier and gain water level through carp displacement.


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## Shiawassee_Kid (Nov 28, 2000)

TSS Caddis said:


> I vote we remove the asian carp barrier and gain water level through carp displacement.


thats what i call thinking outside the box.


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## chemo13 (May 10, 2006)

It Bush's fault!


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## field-n-feathers (Oct 20, 2008)

TSS Caddis said:


> I'm possibly the cause of low water since I watered for 8 hours a night and had green grass all summer:lol:


:lol::lol: Nope. It's definitely the government changing the weather patterns. Or maybe it's because I leave the water on when I brush my teeth. 

Regardless....this is what I think of conspiracy theories.


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## skycarp10 (Oct 14, 2012)

We can't figure out how to manage ourselves. How could we possibly affect the weather? 

The people who think Nestle is responsible are watching too much Jesse Ventura (Conspiracy Theory). It's all a bunch of garbage.


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## pinman (Feb 2, 2012)

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/

Cool interactive that goes back years. Looks like a cycle to me.


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## limige (Sep 2, 2005)

field-n-feathers said:


> :lol::lol: Nope. It's definitely the government changing the weather patterns. Or maybe it's because I leave the water on when I brush my teeth.
> 
> Regardless....this is what I think of conspiracy theories.



Just an fyi, I don't pretend to believe our weather is being "controlled " but everyone in this country better be aware of certain possibilities. The government and private entities such as NASA has the brain power at hand to do more than many of us would dream of.

Here is one link you can checkout. Do some Googling. Inform yourself rather than sticking your head in the sand saying it can't happen. 

http://www.cuttingedge.org/News/n1207.cfm

Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine


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## Duke (Oct 6, 2000)

just ducky said:


> Aw cmon Duke. I know this is your line of work, but can't you just let us all believe in some kind of conspiracy theory...please? We really need something to chew on over the coming long winter months before the spring CWAC meeting :evilsmile So enough with your darn facts already :lol:


I do wish the reason was more interesting than it really is, and, you're right- nobody should discourage creativity and an active imagination!!! Although it's a good idea, I think, to temper it ever so slightly with a bit of real data... 

Nick I am definitely not disagreeing with what you saw- those big winds, and cooler & drier air at the end of summer did result in huge evaporation. Which as you said yourself, where else could it go [besides up]? Erie experienced the same or even more of a decline- up until November when its level actually rose (unusual). It had to rise because of a combination of more rain than Michigan-Huron got, plus the sustained N winds from Sandy that resulted in an extra flush of water down the St. Clair drain (Huron loses, Erie gains). No clue on exactly how much extra water attributed to that, I would love to know.

here is what the actual water level gauge measured this year for Michigan-Huron, inches of change in level from the previous month. These are monthly averages, to reduce/eliminate the effect of wind (seiches) and all that. Also included is the ~100 year averages for these same level changes (in parentheses):

July -1.2 inches (avg. +1.2)
August -2.76 inches (avg. -0.84)
September -4.32 inches (avg. -1.92)
October -4.8 inches (avg. -2.76)
November -2.76 inches (avg. -2.4)


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## wartfroggy (Jan 25, 2007)

*Great Lakes levels recover from record lows after wet year
*
http://www.freep.com/article/201311...at-Lake-levels-rise-after-hitting-record-lows

&#9632; Lakes Michigan and Huron remain 17 inches below their long-term average as of the end of October but are up 11 inches from this time a year ago.

&#9632; Lake Superior is 2 inches below its long-term average but up 13 inches from its levels of a year ago.

&#9632; Lake St. Clair is 6 inches below its long-term average but up nearly 10 inches from a year ago.

&#9632; Lake Erie is near its long-term average and up nearly 10 inches from this time last year.

&#9632; Lake Ontario is also near average and up about a foot from the previous year.


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## Duke (Oct 6, 2000)

I have noticed there were no barstool scientists with conspiracy theories about where all the came _from_ this year!??


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## just ducky (Aug 23, 2002)

Duke said:


> I have noticed there were no barstool scientists with conspiracy theories about where all the came _from_ this year!??


Puleeeeez Duke...don't dredge up that whole sordid argument again :lol: Let it be man, let it be :evilsmile


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## wartfroggy (Jan 25, 2007)

Duke said:


> I have noticed there were no barstool scientists with conspiracy theories about where all the came _from_ this year!??


Yeah. They all got quiet recently, so I figured I'd bump the thread with some new data.


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## idylmoments (Apr 28, 2002)

They changed the drain. If you are in the area, drive south of Black River along the SCR to Marysville and check out the waterfront. Riprap gravel, blocks, trees and natural vegetation instead of seawall. http://www.stclairfoundation.org/riverwalk

I know this won't have an immediate affect and it was because of the rain, but were on the right track. Next we can start at the BW Bridge and go south.


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## Swamp Boss (Mar 14, 2003)

I am pretty sure the lakes do what they are going to do year in -year out regardless of whatever is theorized here or anywhere else.

Why the hate for barstools though? I sat on one or two of them this season and the theories that have been discussed made perfect sense at the time;I think??? I just cant remember them at the moment...

Sure was glad to see lots of water this year though! Never winded out of my old haunts all year and the hip waders stayed in the car!


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## jean7563 (Oct 17, 2013)

We are depleating our aquifers faster than they can replenish and channeling water to rivers via drainage tile and moving this water to the ocean instead of letting it infiltrate into the soil and replace groundwater that has disappeared. Only way to stop it is keep the water in the area and don't send it to the rivers!
_Posted via Mobile Device_


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## Duke (Oct 6, 2000)

Barstools good, but not all of the thinking that comes from them! 

jean7563 I agree!! Not sure just how much effect this has big picture, but what you say is definitely true and something to be considered if not concerned about


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## wartfroggy (Jan 25, 2007)

Yeah I know, digging up an old one.
Water levels were low, and were only going to go down. There was no hope in site. The end of the world....

And just a couple of years later.......

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/10/michigans_great_lakes_water_le.html#incart_river

Maybe in another couple of years, we'll have a thread about "The Real Reason for High Water Levels" with all sorts of new conspiracy theories.


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## jehler (Jul 18, 2011)

so naive, its an election year brah


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## gooseblood82 (Oct 7, 2014)

Mild winter? We had record cold and snow fall


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## Shiawassee_Kid (Nov 28, 2000)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> were you on the moon this summer? I think i went 2 months without a drop of rain. my yard was burnt to a crisp (thankfully, didnt have to mow but 3-4 times this summer.
> 
> worst snowmobile winter in history. that says no snow ANYWHERE around the great lakes as i like to travel to ride and i had to travel to grand marais and marquette to hit marginal snow.
> 
> ...


i like reading my old posts...specially when they are spot on...sometimes they are off the wall but i was on it with this one.


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## Shiawassee_Kid (Nov 28, 2000)

gooseblood82 said:


> Mild winter? We had record cold and snow fall


this was from 2012 i think. horrible winter. rivers never even froze here which hasn't happened in my lifetime.


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## Nuff Daddy (Dec 5, 2012)

Shiawassee_Kid said:


> this was from 2012 i think. horrible winter. rivers never even froze here which hasn't happened in my lifetime.



That winter was almost hotter than this summer. 
I believe it touched 70 in some places in January.


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## duckhtr213890 (Feb 9, 2008)

Nuff Daddy said:


> That winter was almost hotter than this summer.
> I believe it touched 70 in some places in January.


Yup it was perfect, fishin the shiver on the river in a t shirt on the boat


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