# michigan grouse forcast,or lack of



## setterpoint (Feb 20, 2015)

I was checking the 2018 grouse forcast and I can't find much on michigan MN and WI both say numbers are down 29 percent from last year. can't find mi forecast anywhere. and I thought we were supposed to be in the up swing we should have had a good nesting this year weather was good for young birds,


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## michiganmaniac (Dec 9, 2008)

I believe those numbers, down 29%, come from the spring drumming surveys. So they are saying that there are 29% less adult birds this spring than last. But last year spring drumming counts were quite high. 

Mi no longer publishes their drumming surveys. As I understand it some guy interfered with the normal historical drumming route which made the data inaccurate. Can anyone elaborate on this? What did the guy actually do?


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## KTBurleson (Dec 12, 2012)

My understanding is that he FOIA'd the drumming surveys so he could find out the locations where the drumming was heard as a way to find out where to hunt.



michiganmaniac said:


> I believe those numbers, down 29%, come from the spring drumming surveys. So they are saying that there are 29% less adult birds this spring than last. But last year spring drumming counts were quite high.
> 
> Mi no longer publishes their drumming surveys. As I understand it some guy interfered with the normal historical drumming route which made the data inaccurate. Can anyone elaborate on this? What did the guy actually do?


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

KTBurleson said:


> My understanding is that he FOIA'd the drumming surveys so he could find out the locations where the drumming was heard as a way to find out where to hunt.



that is what i heard from dnr insiders - if FOIA'd means personally took the info on hot spots


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## fordman1 (Dec 12, 2015)

Grouse forecast, there will be grouse.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

fordman1 said:


> Grouse forecast, there will be grouse.



fordman - 100% true, not fake news! there are ALWAYS grouse to flush!

here is an experience that i have always wanted to share with others that defied the proverbial 'low cycle'. at my age, better now than never.
might serve as a tip for younger hunters - or mightve been a fluke

back in the 80s, the outdoor writer for the detroit news (or free press) was tom opre, a friend of mine who would sit with our group at some ducks unlimited banquets

during the 'low cycle' one year, tom started writing during the late summer about how tough the year would be for grouse due to the low spot in the cycle. doomsday reports that i chose to ignore, and ignited my adrenalin to defy

opening day, we went to our 'hottest spot' first thing. we had a strong lineup. our lab in its prime, and 5 hunters. i was in my prime, around 40. my wife was 36, an ex-usa olympic basketball starter (unofficial, as women's basketball was not yet an olympic event, she played for usa in the world championships and had to guard the 7' russian woman suspected of being male). also two guys in their mid 30s, one an ex-nhl player who only 3 months earlier was in training and playing pro hockey, obviously in good shape. dad was 65, but going strong - when the ex-nhler and the other two in their 30s wanted to take a rest break, dad and i would 'make a quick swing', as our batteries were still full.

we started by following a creek, with diverse cover. i took the toughest part, winding along the creek, very thick bushes (but food and water), often in thick grass and mucky spots. dad took the middle of the thick cover, missing the muck and taller grass. the ex-nhler walked the edge, between the swamp thicket and the ridge. my wife was up on the high ground at its edge, near a two tracker, with the other guy walking on the side of the ridge, which was about 40-50' high.

the map showed it to be exactly one mile as the crow flies until the creek hit the road to the east. but with all of the turns, i suspect it was 2-3 miles of walking. when we hit a feeder creek, the three on the right would make 'a U', up and back. we were experienced at keeping a straight line, and really covered the area well. but all we had to show for the effort was one grouse flush, coming out of a pine tree on the side of the ridge within the first 100 yards, flying up and across to the high ground.

disappointed that our hot spot produced almost nothing, and recalling the one flush flew into the high ground, we chose the high ground as our return route. mixtures of pine plantations, mature hardwood, young aspen, ferns, openings, totally dry and without water. the entire way back produced nothing.

so we figured 'they are on the other side of the creek', and worked that down to the road a mile away. that side had a narrower swamp strip, enabling us to work it 'tight'. nothing!

now tom opre's prediction started to become believable. this spot, two decembers prior, had produced 55 flushes in 2 hours. where were the birds? 

the group asked me 'what do we do now?'. frustrated, and tired due to really working the 6 or more miles very hard, i said 'we are a mile from the car, we are taking the shortest and easiest route back and going to another spot'. they looked at me like i was nuts, as the straight line to the west was a wide open field, with cover never higher than ankle deep. you could see a grouse on the ground 100 or more yards in front of you.

we walked alongside each other with guns on the shoulder, knowing there would be no birds. i was on the two tracker with my lab, wide open fields on both sides. halfway home, there was a triangular patch of mature pines - maybe 80 yards across in the longest parts. my lab started showing interest and started angling to the patch. i did not know why, as on each side of the patch was 150-200 yards of wide open fields surrounding it. 'if she is interested and heading there, i should find the energy to back her up' i said to myself. walking to the center of the patch, which had some large downed trees, she entered the patch, and i was startled by grouse starting to flush. between sights and sounds, there were 17 birds in there. we got a number of them, as the crew had 'duck pass shooting opportunities' across the wide open field.

NO SANE grouse hunter would have ever spent any energy to cover an area like that!!!!!

day two, some friends arrived, and we decided to hunt another spot. again, 5 seasoned hunters (my dad and wife took the day off), with an additional dog in its prime. we chose a spot loaded with wild raisins, which were ripe. again, we walked about a mile to the south, covering pines, raisins, mature hardwoods, young aspen, openings, along a fire line. then back a mile north. we only had one or two sound flushes coming from the tops of pine trees.

we made it back to a two tracker, and all collapsed from the 'death march', dogs panting since there were only a few mudholes to drink from. my lab slowly got up, and started walking down the fire line to the north. too tired to follow her, i knelt and watched with curiosity where she was going, wondering why.

bad decision. from under a small maze of downed trees, teepee style, 10-12 birds flushed. that section was the last choice a sane grouse hunter would pick to hunt out of the 4 sections - mature trees with little ground cover and no food or water, which the other 3 quadrants had.

third day? same damned thing. miles of walking with not one flush, taking a straight line thru poor cover to 'get the hell out of here', only to have my dog wander off to a bunch of downed trees, and a 14 bird flush.

afterwards, i saw tom opre at a DU banquet, and told him that he did a disservice to readers with his doomsday predictions, that our flush rate equalled 'high cycle' years, but it took extra walking in non-grousey areas - which no hunter would have done after reading his columns pre-season and during season... that he probably caused people to give up too quickly, cover less ground. he looked at my like he suspected i had spent too much time at the open bar.

i have kept track of flushes, flush rate per hour, shots % fired, kill %.... for almost 50 years. i have seen little difference between 'low cycle' and 'high cycle'. maybe because during the 'low cycle' years, i have strategized to work cover that does not appear to be 'grousey' at all.

were we just lucky? was that a year in which broods had not dispersed? or, is there something that causes the appearance of a 'low cycle' because a natural 'grouse cycle' is to locate in non-grousey spots where spotters and surveyors would never think to go to count?

i am now 68 and cover less ground. my great grouse dog has passed away. dad is 92 and stopped hunting 5 years ago. my grouse hunting wife and i are divorced. my grouse hunting friends are not around - my dad's friends also are old and no longer hunting, or have died. my friends from work were from two jobs ago.

so now, i am seeing lower flush rates in 'low cycles', probably because i/we cover very little ground and stick to typical grouse cover, not young enough to waste time in non-grousey spots

who knows the answer?

what i would advise young grouse hunters to do it is to ignore warnings of 'the low cycle', and strategize to hunt non-grousey spots when that is reported. it may only get you more exercise, or you might 'beat the cycle'.

hope this helps someone someday

ty4 letting me do my duty to 'give back more than i took'

good luck this year, be safe!


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

KTBurleson said:


> My understanding is that he FOIA'd the drumming surveys so he could find out the locations where the drumming was heard as a way to find out where to hunt.


What a great idea. I wish I would have thought of that.


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## Kisutch (May 26, 2011)

Please stay home I will put up a full report after the season. Global warming and the human race has wiped all the ruffed grouse off the face of the Earth. The new york times told me so.

Get out and destroy some boot leather. Grouse report!!

Kisutch


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

Kisutch said:


> Please stay home I will put up a full report after the season. Global warming and the human race has wiped all the ruffed grouse off the face of the Earth. The new york times told me so.
> 
> Get out and destroy some boot leather. Grouse report!!
> 
> Kisutch



you forgot the west nile virus which played a part in the extinction! haha


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## Kisutch (May 26, 2011)

Highlife I'm getting old. This Michters I've been drinking has taken out a few more brain cells. Lucky for those extinct birds I keep forgetting how to get in the gun safe. 

Kisutch


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

setterpoint said:


> I was checking the 2018 grouse forcast and I can't find much on michigan MN and WI both say numbers are down 29 percent from last year. can't find mi forecast anywhere. and I thought we were supposed to be in the up swing we should have had a good nesting this year weather was good for young birds,


We experienced a good month post-opener, prior the sudden disappearance of juvenile birds in the bag for the upland hunters I know and share information with up here. The concensus was a 30-60% decline in juveniles mid-season, which now appears to be related to West Nile virus induced mortality.

I would encourage you to focus my efforts on marking top quality habitat blocks in my hunting area and working that preferentially, based on the West Nile virus research data from Pa.


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## kdogger (Jan 10, 2005)

West Nile wiped them out South of houghton lake.


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## huntindog1 (Jun 22, 2016)

https://www.michigan.gov/minewswire/0,4629,7-136-3452_3514-454486--,00.html

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/west_nile_virus_grouse_faq_630086_7.pdf


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## BIGSP (Sep 16, 2004)

Cork Dust said:


> We experienced a good month post-opener, prior the sudden disappearance of juvenile birds in the bag for the upland hunters I know and share information with up here. The concensus was a 30-60% decline in juveniles mid-season, which now appears to be related to West Nile virus induced mortality.
> 
> I would encourage you to focus my efforts on marking top quality habitat blocks in my hunting area and working that preferentially, based on the West Nile virus research data from Pa.


Cork Dust, there is no data proving what you've said here. It may be true but nobody knows. Most of the experts I've talked to suspect a cold wet spring during peak hatch as the main culprit for the low bird numbers last year. Also keep in mind we were only 2 years off the bottoms of the cycle. I feel we had a good nest this year so let's see if they rebound or not.


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## RobbyBoy32 (Sep 27, 2016)

We just got back from the UP. Grouse all over if you get far enough into the woods. Even flushed a few off the edge of the dirt backwoods roads around 11:00am after it rained all night. I think grouse hunting this year will be just fine all over. I personally like the fact they are not exactly in the same honey holes every year. I get a better workout and the dog gets an education(sometimes me too).


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

BIGSP said:


> Cork Dust, there is no data proving what you've said here. It may be true but nobody knows. Most of the experts I've talked to suspect a cold wet spring during peak hatch as the main culprit for the low bird numbers last year. Also keep in mind we were only 2 years off the bottoms of the cycle. I feel we had a good nest this year so let's see if they rebound or not.


...which would not explain the existence of good numbers of birds including juveniles after the opener (covey flushes occurring with good frequency), followed by a near lack of juvenile birds as well as a marked reduction in flush rates less than mid-way through the season. A small cohort of dead grouse were necropsied as well from different spots in the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan taken in different months at the Lansing lab.; all U.P. birds submitted were documented to have West Nile virus. 

When you combine these obserations with actual focused study data on impacts of West Nile virus on grouse over a multi-year period done in Pa. with the documentation that West Nile virus was widespread in Minnesota, Wisconson, and Michigan in 2017, you get a pretty good circumstantial evidence base, despite the opinions of the "experts" you have talked to.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/spor...pact-west-nile-virus-ruffed-grouse/636008002/

https://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-47796-454486--,00.html


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## birdhntr (Jan 25, 2014)

Cork Dust said:


> ...which would not explain the existence of good numbers of birds including juveniles after the opener (covey flushes occurring with good frequency), followed by a near lack of juvenile birds as well as a marked reduction in flush rates less than mid-way through the season. A small cohort of dead grouse were necropsied as well from different spots in the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan taken in different months at the Lansing lab.; all U.P. birds submitted were documented to have West Nile virus.
> 
> When you combine these obserations with actual focused study data on impacts of West Nile virus on grouse over a multi-year period done in Pa. with the documentation that West Nile virus was widespread in Minnesota, Wisconson, and Michigan in 2017, you get a pretty good circumstantial evidence base, despite the opinions of the "experts" you have talked to.
> 
> ...


Maybe someone hunted your spots.lolJust kidding.Last year I started running the dogs mid July up to season opener with probably 80 to 100 hours in my area.I did not move one family of grouse if memory serves me well until around labor day in which I found 1 family of birds one day and another group of three families in one spot together.They were in the black berries but for the first five or six weeks I did not find one family group.typically half of my finds are family groups up to the opener.This year I have not been up yet due to the fact I have been working every day.(61 days in a row after tomorrow).I will scout this weekend for the first time but this is what I know as of right now report wise.My brother said every morning a family group is in the drive pecking gravel.In the back on his daily walk he is flushing some birds with an occasional group.He is also seeing pheasants weekly on the roads and on the property.This is the alpena area.My second source is some young farmers that i took duck hunting for their first time and slayed the birds two days in a row in which they had a blast.They understand how secretive hunting is and now we have a kinship even though we rarely get to talk they were down for a wedding and I instantly asked about grouse.They are true work horses buying land,farming, and also work logging full time.They are seeing good numbers of grouse while logging and on the farms in wooded areas.My third source is a trapper I met which on the first night I tossing back a few beers I nicknamed him the grizz.He does firewood and periodically sends me texts on when and where he sees grouse and he is seeing them in groups.I think mother nature played a key role in this just as it did in North Dakota where the winter and spring caused a reduction in birds from 50% to higher than 80% in areas of the state due to winter kill and a poor nesting season.They have already started that not all grouse are susceptible to west Nile and die.I would think the ones that don't die and are less susceptible are breeding in which strengthens their resistance to wnv.Thats a fact that we know works as its practiced in the good selective breeding that is done with are dogs we hunt with when dogs with health issues are removed from the gene pool.I have had worse years than last year so I am optimistic on where this is going. Definitely not going to shoot from the hip on this one due to one season's results. Pennsylvania has a old growth forest issue similar to southern Michigan,Indiana, Ohio, and other states.Habitat is key!


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## Cork Dust (Nov 26, 2012)

birdhntr said:


> Maybe someone hunted your spots.lolJust kidding.Last year I started running the dogs mid July up to season opener with probably 80 to 100 hours in my area.I did not move one family of grouse if memory serves me well until around labor day in which I found 1 family of birds one day and another group of three families in one spot together.They were in the black berries but for the first five or six weeks I did not find one family group.typically half of my finds are family groups up to the opener.This year I have not been up yet due to the fact I have been working every day.(61 days in a row after tomorrow).I will scout this weekend for the first time but this is what I know as of right now report wise.My brother said every morning a family group is in the drive pecking gravel.In the back on his daily walk he is flushing some birds with an occasional group.He is also seeing pheasants weekly on the roads and on the property.This is the alpena area.My second source is some young farmers that i took duck hunting for their first time and slayed the birds two days in a row in which they had a blast.They understand how secretive hunting is and now we have a kinship even though we rarely get to talk they were down for a wedding and I instantly asked about grouse.They are true work horses buying land,farming, and also work logging full time.They are seeing good numbers of grouse while logging and on the farms in wooded areas.My third source is a trapper I met which on the first night I tossing back a few beers I nicknamed him the grizz.He does firewood and periodically sends me texts on when and where he sees grouse and he is seeing them in groups.I think mother nature played a key role in this just as it did in North Dakota where the winter and spring caused a reduction in birds from 50% to higher than 80% in areas of the state due to winter kill and a poor nesting season.They have already started that not all grouse are susceptible to west Nile and die.I would think the ones that don't die and are less susceptible are breeding in which strengthens their resistance to wnv.Thats a fact that we know works as its practiced in the good selective breeding that is done with are dogs we hunt with when dogs with health issues are removed from the gene pool.I have had worse years than last year so I am optimistic on where this is going. Definitely not going to shoot from the hip on this one due to one season's results. Pennsylvania has a old growth forest issue similar to southern Michigan,Indiana, Ohio, and other states.Habitat is key!


 I'm approaching my fifteenth year hunting NoDak for ducks, cranes, and upland birds for two weeks. I just finished painting the last of 52 sandhill crane decoys yesterday to replace some birds stolen last year.

I hunt over a pair of flushing dogs( numbers 8 and 9 in the progression), which makes me an outcast among the Ruffed Grouse Society guys I pool data with, who all are pointer owners. Among the nine folks who pool their grouse season notes of flush rates, broods flushed and adult/juvenile ratio of birds bagged, our composite view indicated a 30-60% reduction that didn't actually phase-in, but abruptly occurred. This is pretty classic disease response.

Yes, habitat is the key, as the long term Pa. data indicate, survivorship is highest for birds living in high quality habitat. You mention one other important factor: food availability, specifically berries, mast, clover, and new growth buds. Grouse are definitely a bird that adjusts their distribution based on microhabitat that is most conducive to their immediate needs, both within a season and across a year. We had large areas of habitat without an acorn crop, consequently knocking oak ridges adjacent or within clear cuts out of the picture. I like to work two-tracks that amble through aspen regrowth the is 7-11 years old, with a mix of spotted alder and willow in more open low spots. Why? Clover on the two-track center strip, raspberries and black berry thickets on the margins, and adequate soil moisture, indicated by the presence of spotted alders and willow for earthworms near the surface for woodcock. IF it's wet, I push the back edges adjacent the old growth or focus on conifer clusters within the tract.

You also note another truth, some birds survive West Nile Virus infection, particularly those that are located in top quality habitat. Viruses are RNA or DNA packets enclosed in a protein capsule, functioning as parasites that attach to healthy cells and insert their genetic material into the cell and usurp its protein production machinery to make virus particles. Birds that survive the infection should be allowed to carry through to spring to broaden the pool, via their progeny, of ruffed grouse with adequate antibody titer values to be virus resistant. So, you folks that are out in the late season shooting birds who are moving out to bud just before dusk in the U.P. are not doing your future hunting any favors. I mention this because I just received an email with an attachment of a picture that featured nine grouse taken by a friend and his hunting partner who works for water resources in the DEQ, taken in an abandoned apple orchard at dusk in the late season.... He wanted to brag-up how steady his dog( named Luna, short for Lunatic) has become in the interval since she destroyed his passenger side door interiorin his FJ Cruiser when left for twenty minutes at age II.


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## birdhntr (Jan 25, 2014)

Cork Dust said:


> I'm approaching my fifteenth year hunting NoDak for ducks, cranes, and upland birds for two weeks. I just finished painting the last of 52 sandhill crane decoys yesterday to replace some birds stolen last year.
> 
> I hunt over a pair of flushing dogs( numbers 8 and 9 in the progression), which makes me an outcast among the Ruffed Grouse Society guys I pool data with, who all are pointer owners. Among the nine folks who pool their grouse season notes of flush rates, broods flushed and adult/juvenile ratio of birds bagged, our composite view indicated a 30-60% reduction that didn't actually phase-in, but abruptly occurred. This is pretty classic disease response.
> 
> ...


Good points on the topic but borderline conjecture.If you hammer the grouse anytime you affect the carryover be it Sept, Oct, Nov, or Dec.I prefer hunting over dogs for the challenge but I know of many people that refuse to hunt with dogs because it cuts down their harvest.I have had people clean out my spots before as they tell me what they got without dogs.You are missing two components which is other hunters hunting the same area as you and predation.I found that college graduates study on tracking a pair of Goshawks that ate grouse in the 100's which was linked to the forum here a few years ago very interesting. Then on the nine birds that were harvested which is not fair to say he took nine birds that would carryover because maybe half or none may have made it to nesting season.Heck almost one a year dies flying into my parents house which usually happens after the season closes.My coworker tells me stories about road hunting with an Indian in the burt lake area and how good the guy was at spotting grouse.They would then park and walk back and pop them with 22's.I had another coworker that showed me pictures of stacks of grouse as many as 30.They hunt them in the EUP on farms they deer hunt just before the gun opener without dogs.I was all smiles and said way to go Tom!Now I don't want to sound rude but it seems to me that you saw a picture of your buddy with nine birds and are somewhat disdained about it and are having thoughts about regulations that would hopefully benefit you by restricting him.If had buddy's that shot nine grouse in a day I would offer them some beers to celebrate!


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## OnHoPr (Jul 21, 2013)

birdhntr said:


> Good points on the topic but borderline conjecture.If you hammer the grouse anytime you affect the carryover be it Sept, Oct, Nov, or Dec.I prefer hunting over dogs for the challenge but I know of many people that refuse to hunt with dogs because it cuts down their harvest.I have had people clean out my spots before as they tell me what they got without dogs.You are missing two components which is other hunters hunting the same area as you and predation.I found that college graduates study on tracking a pair of Goshawks that ate grouse in the 100's which was linked to the forum here a few years ago very interesting. Then on the nine birds that were harvested which is not fair to say he took nine birds that would carryover because maybe half or none may have made it to nesting season.Heck almost one a year dies flying into my parents house which usually happens after the season closes.My coworker tells me stories about road hunting with an Indian in the burt lake area and how good the guy was at spotting grouse.They would then park and walk back and pop them with 22's.I had another coworker that showed me pictures of stacks of grouse as many as 30.They hunt them in the EUP on farms they deer hunt just before the gun opener without dogs.I was all smiles and said way to go Tom!Now I don't want to sound rude but it seems to me that you saw a picture of your buddy with nine birds and are somewhat disdained about it and are having thoughts about regulations that would hopefully benefit you by restricting him.If had buddy's that shot nine grouse in a day I would offer them some beers to celebrate!


I really don't want to play forum school teacher, but I am getting older with the eyes. It would be nice if you made a few paragraphs even if they are not paragraphs for easier reading. break it up a little bit please


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