# 2012 Rut Predictions



## Dashforcash (Sep 9, 2011)

I don't no if it was just me last year or did the rut seem like it just never happened? Im from west MI an for me it was nothing like I have seen in the past. It seemed as if it was always windy, or the moon was full, weather was warm you name it. The bucks just were not on there feet.
I took a risky week of work this year, I usually try and take the week before gun off,but this year I'm rolling the dice with Oct. 30th thru Nov. 3 gonna try to get a trick or treat buck.
Do any of you guys try and hunt the seeking stage or the full on chasing stage???
How do you guys see the 2012 Rut panning out????

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## 454casull (Jan 6, 2005)

The rut occurs pretty much the same time every year as the amount of ambient light is the trigger. However, in our area if the weather is too warm or too anything (besides cold) the rutting activity seems to be either more drawn out or nocturnal. If you are in stand the day after a few days of a strong wind pattern and it is calm and cool you will assume you died and went to heaven. The week you mention, if the weather cooperates, should be outstanding. Back quite a few years ago the MI non typical bow record was broken in consecutive years on hallween.


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## john warren (Jan 25, 2005)

well, theres baby deer, so there was a rut.

my prdiction for this year is, there will be a rut.

lol glad i could help.

now if only i could tell you when....


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## johndeere506 (Oct 26, 2009)

john warren said:


> well, theres baby deer, so there was a rut.
> 
> my prdiction for this year is, there will be a rut.
> 
> ...


That's funny. 

Im predicting Halloween to Nov 15th to be the best.


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## Dashforcash (Sep 9, 2011)

It just seemed like last year all the Rut activity was after dark. I see there calling for a full moon at the end if Oct. Just wasnt sure what everyones thoughts were.
LOL Im see lots of babys as well that was a good one.

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## On Target (Jun 10, 2007)

Last year was odd to me too. I always take the first week of November off, I saw a few bucks during this week, but no chasing like normal. I didn't see chasing until Nov 12. I don't know if it was because it was a new location or what. I shot an 8 pt on Nov 14 at 11:00 following a doe. I won't be in that stand until November this year. Can't wait.


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## QDMAMAN (Dec 8, 2004)

I had 2 button bucks wondering around in my yard without mama this morning. Just sayin!


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## Bomba (Jul 26, 2005)

I smell what ur cookin!:lol:


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## jhunter83 (Oct 15, 2012)

I'm one to agree with the weird absence of the rut last year (2011). Usually Halloween never fails me, however with the relatively warm and wet weather had me thinking if the rut even existed. I did shoot a nice 140 8 point buck on opening day gun Nov. 15, and to my dismay he was chasing some does. This made me believe that the abnormally warm weather just pushed their breeding a couple weeks out, as I have never seen bucks chasing hot does in gun season before. I cannot say that that the rut didnt happen, since I have seen several fawns on my property this year. I'm seeing allot of all the right signs this year, telling me that the rut in southern Michigan will be in full fledge around Halloween! The moment any of you see any chasing, please let us all know!
[/COLOR] 
-Jhunter83


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## skipper34 (Oct 13, 2005)

The rut ALWAYS happens, each and every year. At the same time each and every year. The weather does nothing to affect rut timing. It just governs how active the deer are during the rut. Warmer weather will slow the observable buck activity. But there will be breeding year after year no matter what the moon or the weather is. Just the facts, maam!


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## jhunter83 (Oct 15, 2012)

I don't believe for instance that it happens the same time every year, in terms of day for day. I do know that the rut ALWAYS takes place that is a no brainer. I can say however that whether it's the weather, the phase of moon, or whatever one wants to contest has effect on when the rut takes place or what associates to the "kickoff", it does vary from year to year by a couple of weeks give or take. Ive hunted for years and seldom see rut patterns leading into gun season here in Michigan; generally it has dwindled down by Nov. 15th. But thanks for the insight... ma'am


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## jatc (Oct 24, 2008)

jhunter83 said:


> I don't believe for instance that it happens the same time every year, in terms of day for day. I do know that the rut ALWAYS takes place that is a no brainer. I can say however that whether it's the weather, the phase of moon, or whatever one wants to contest has effect on when the rut takes place or what associates to the "kickoff", it does vary from year to year by a couple of weeks give or take. Ive hunted for years and seldom see rut patterns leading into gun season here in Michigan; generally it has dwindled down by Nov. 15th. But thanks for the insight... ma'am



Your observations do not mirror mine. Over the last twenty five years I have never hunted a gun season without seeing at least one buck chasing a doe at some point after November 15. This would include land in the SLP and up in the western UP.

It will not vary by WEEKS, maybe by DAYS. Since photoperiod is what triggers the main breeding phase of the rut (but remember this is only about 75% of the available does coming into heat during the "peak"), and our calendar dates don't quite line up perfectly with it, it will vary a little each year.

The weather and moon phase alter daytime movement so, like last year, if the full moon lands near the "peak" it will seem like the rut is delayed because most of the activity is happening under cover of darkness. Same with unseasonably warm weather. Last year there was a lot of standing corn as well that may have altered the sightings as the deer pretty much stayed in the corn in many areas.

A good way to gauge the primary "rut" is to look at car deer collisions in your county over the last several years. You will see a large increase in reports right around the 10th of November each year. That's a good starting point for your research.


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## jhunter83 (Oct 15, 2012)

Yeah...You know I believe I could jump on a hundred different sites relating to "whitetail Rut" and will derive a different answer each and every time as to what theories are correct in terms of what's exactly associated with the rut . Everyone seems to have their own thoughts relating to the rut . As you noted; you have seen bucks chasing doe in gun season :yikes:, and I on the other hand have actually seen bucks back in their "bachelor" groups during that time :sad:, with of course the exception of last year:tdo12: . I have seen bucks chasing doe mid-October:bloos:, and other times not until Halloween:SHOCKED:. I personally would always have to say the first week in November is the safest time for me to take a week off work. Anyhow, I appreciate the input and wish you luck this season!


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## skipper34 (Oct 13, 2005)

jhunter83 said:


> I don't believe for instance that it happens the same time every year, in terms of day for day. I do know that the rut ALWAYS takes place that is a no brainer. I can say however that whether it's the weather, the phase of moon, or whatever one wants to contest has effect on when the rut takes place or what associates to the "kickoff", it does vary from year to year by a couple of weeks give or take. Ive hunted for years and seldom see rut patterns leading into gun season here in Michigan; generally it has dwindled down by Nov. 15th. But thanks for the insight... ma'am


The rut NEVER varies by a couple of weeks. Maybe a few DAYS, but never weeks. The does are the ones who govern when the rut starts, not the bucks. They come into estrus every year near the same period. Photoperiod is what triggers it. Nature is pretty predictable in this instance.


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## riverbob (Jan 11, 2011)

I think the rut will start soon. Today on the river ( was fishing) i saw a doe jump in the river with a buck right behind her, they swam across the river (60 yards)they were going up the bank, n i heard splash, n looked n their was another buck crossing right behind them.So i would think something is starting to happen.


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## dallasdog (Nov 17, 2009)

I am new to bow hunting... One thing i have learned this year is watch your trail cam and let it do the work for you. Im in the Mid UP and as of yesterday does were still with fawns and bucks still comming at night. My cam is on my bait so that tells me the bucks still have food on their mind. hoping cold weather this weekend chnges that. when i see the does alone and the bucks showing up randomly I will tevo the world series and sit in my stand every night!


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