# Guide Pressure on Longtails



## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Longtails appear to be in good numbers *these* days. For most hunters they are a true trophy. The last few times I have hunted them with my hunting partners we had many opportunities to take our limits of trophy drakes, however more times than not we would shoot only a couple birds. It's not only by personal choice, but a individual effort to conserve. The last few times out on the water we could not believe the amount of guides taking clients out to shoot longtails, we counted at least 5 within the 15 minutes at the launch. During the last hunt we witnessed obvious rallying taking place by two tender boats chasing birds up for there layout shooters.I see guides bragging about how many birds they got day in and day out. How substainal is this type of pressure? Is anyone really looking at the pressure on these birds and saying is 6 ducks a day sustainable overtime. No wonder the LTA numbers are down, once the longtail hunting slows down the guides will be onto the next best thing...

Just my opinion as a sportsmen and conservationist.


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## Superior24 (Oct 2, 2018)

I agree seeing longtail limits everyday on social media makes you wounder if these guides even realize what they are doing to the population. Waterfowl hunters should know better then anyone, it's about the experience of getting out there, not about the number of ducks you kill. Michigan is blessed to have such good long tail hunting right now, but a few people could ruin it for everyone!


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## Divers Down (Mar 31, 2008)

They Squaw sky isn’t falling Lol
How big are the Great Lakes? There will Never! Be too much hunting pressure on old squaw. I wanna know where these guides are posting cuz I’m goin


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## Fowl Play (Nov 30, 2014)

Oldsquaws and scoters have historically wintered on the Great Lakes in massive numbers. You can look at books printed in the 50’s that mention this. Not to mention, I’m guessing what is hunted is a small part of the total wintering over. There’s a lot of water to cover in between each port or boat launch. How many square miles is there for Lake Michigan alone? 

I do very much appreciate the original posters concern about waterfowl that all of us love so much. It wasn’t that long ago no one thought bluebill population was at risk to crash. It wasn’t hunting. So, regardless of population, we always should be concerned about the waterfowl and habitat.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

I don't claim to be an expert at all on longtails, actually on any duck for that matter...I will leave that to the biologist. What I do know is that longtail populations are 1/3 of today's bluebills population. You definitely can't shoot 6 bluebills per day and don't see that changing anytime soon. Just like any resources if you take without giving much back it will not substain. Not sure how the guides are giving back to the longtails.... just see a high level of taking.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Longtails appear to be in good numbers *these* days. For most hunters they are a true trophy. The last few times I have hunted them with my hunting partners we had many opportunities to take our limits of trophy drakes, however more times than not we would shoot only a couple birds. It's not only by personal choice, but a individual effort to conserve. The last few times out on the water we could not believe the amount of guides taking clients out to shoot longtails, we counted at least 5 within the 15 minutes at the launch. During the last hunt we witnessed obvious rallying taking place by two tender boats chasing birds up for there layout shooters.I see guides bragging about how many birds they got day in and day out. How substainal is this type of pressure? Is anyone really looking at the pressure on these birds and saying is 6 ducks a day sustainable overtime. No wonder the LTA numbers are down, once the longtail hunting slows down the guides will be onto the next best thing...
> 
> Just my opinion as a sportsmen and conservationist.



if you witnessed rallying, did you call the 800 hotline to report it?


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

They estimate only 4-8k squaw are killed here annually and we on the Great Lakes see more squaw than anyone else.


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## JH Bird Dog (Dec 8, 2017)

Admittedly, I do not have the count on what the squaw population is or how many get shot here vs. elsewhere, etc. However, I tend to agree with the OP here, and give him credit for asking whether this is something we ought to be thinking about. It is very naive to assume that you can have guys going out daily and shooting 6 birds a piece and not be doing some degree of damage. That is the kind of short sighted thinking that has repeatedly caused conservation issues throughout the years. We already have a lower limit on any number of other species because their populations cannot sustain that level of hunting (canvasbacks, bluebills, pintails, heck even mallards). In fact, a lot of these species appear to have significantly higher overall populations than longtails. Maybe there needs to be a limit put in place to protect against over harvest and a resulting crash (even is just localized), two or three per day similar to what we do for bluebills? If we truly do get more here in the Great Lakes than anywhere else, I think it stands to reason that we should be taking the lead on management of the species, and it is better to do it now than later down the road before it becomes an issue, right? From what I can tell in fact, it seems like we have very little information on longtail populations and management, so does that mean it is a free for all while we figure it out? Seems a little foolish to me....

Further, if there truly are guides going out there day after day, shooting 6 birds per guy, and doing so unethically, that is a SERIOUS problem and not something we should stand for as sportsman.


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## Divers Down (Mar 31, 2008)

Perception is a funny thing...those “guides” may have been within their legal right. A guides job is to produce legal limits for their clients, 7 days a week, like it or not. There’s no need to convict anyone without facts, the dnr set the limits. Guide bashing rears it’s head every few years, last time it was goose guides ruining everything.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

there seems to be a problem connecting dots....

the same guides probably take customers out twice a day on 1/2 day charters and limit on lake trout. they have not become extinct. nor have any species in our lifetime

maybe these same guides take clients out for limits of geese on a regular basis. when the limit was 2/1. now the limit is 5/3, and the season length has doubled or tripled. they have not become extinct

on good days, that many guys, and multiples more, limit out at the 7WWs, on public marshes, in layout boats, and by hunting with guides for various species

biologists, and USFWS, monitor breeding and wintering populations and harvest data. they have determined the old squaw population will not be harmed with a 6 duck limit. if they notice a decline, they have the authority to reduce the bag limit (harvest), which they have adjusted annually for decades, based upon setting a proper harvest amount that the population can withstand.

they are knowledgable professionals who do this work 52 weeks a year, after taking many courses and attending seminars to have the credentials to actually know what they are talking about. 

in my many decades, i have not heard of a reduction in species bag limit due to overharvesting. it has always been connected to problems with breeding/wintering grounds, water levels, reduction in food source, etc

i trust those knowledgeable professionals way more than some non-credentialed hunter posting on here who is acting on emotion (perhaps selfishly) rather than on any population/harvest data, who thinks the world is coming to an end, but also thinks he has solved the world's problems


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## Big Skip (Sep 1, 2010)

Im curious has the opp been out on a great lakes in winter and seen just how many squaw are here any given winter? There are oodles of them. Very small number of guides and not many people doing it successfully without one. 
When its hoping you may have 20 parties hunting the bay on any given day. How many people any given day are out there taking their limits of eyes any given day? Hunters have little to no impact on squaw population.

Sent from my LM-X410(FG) using Tapatalk


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

These questions were asked at CWAC last year. They said the kill is still very minimal in the big picture.


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## slwayne (Aug 27, 2009)

I am part of a four-man crew that hunts with one of the most popular, well-known guides on Northern Lake Huron the third weekend of every season. We usually do one old squaw layout hunt during the course of the weekend. Some years we shoot our four-man limit, some years we don't. This year we didn't even come close and we still had a great time. I can tell you that every year we see thousands, some years many tens of thousands, of old squaw trading back and forth on the horizon. From my experience, limited as it is, population does not appear to be a problem at this point.

Having said that, I will also say that it is very obvious that there are far more hunters (both guided and non-guided) targeting squaw now than there were 10, even 5, years ago. Blame social media and the more prevalent "it's not a successful hunt if I didn't get my limit" mentality of many of today's hunters. If you have the equipment, fortitude and know-how to do it then a squaw hunt probably presents your best chance to actually have a day that results in limits for all hunters involved. Combine that with the fact that a prime drake old squaw is still a "bucket list" item for many duck hunters and you end up with more hunters chasing them.

Lastly, a few words on guides. We who use guides may have different ideas regarding what constitutes a "good" guide. We may disagree on whether the criteria should be limit vs. no limit, pleasant funny guy vs. hard-ass all-business guy, wanting a guide who does all of the work vs. a guide who encourages the client to be an active part of the process or some combination thereof. But ALL of us should agree that our guide MUST use ethical tactics. If we pay our hard-earned money to an unethical guide in our quest for limits then we are just as unethical as the guide and that should be unacceptable. There are plenty of guides out there that respect the resource and do it the right way. If that unethical guide starts losing clients he'll either go out of business (fine by me) or change his ways (even better).

Sorry if being "preachy". Just trying to respectfully give my opinion on a touchy subject.


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## carsonr2 (Jan 15, 2009)

JH Bird Dog said:


> It is very naive to assume that you can have guys going out daily and shooting 6 birds a piece and not be doing some degree of damage. That is the kind of short sighted thinking that has repeatedly caused conservation issues throughout the years.


It is naive to assume that anyone is making it out daily on Lake Michigan to shoot longtails. Have you seen what the average conditions have been out there this fall?

If you're speaking to more protected waters, the question then becomes how much area of there wintering habitat is actually able to be hunted on a daily basis. That questions is easily answered with very little.


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## grassmaster (Jan 10, 2009)

Wisconsin leads the nation in Old Squaw harvest, those badgers over there grind em up around Green Bay, 
Old Squaws are believed to be the 2nd most populous duck behind the mallard in North America, yet most guys haven't even seen one, let alone shot a limit.
Try going for Old Squaw on Lake Michigan for the next 10 days, aint happening, too rough.
Complaining about 5 groups of guides at a launch is ridiculous, we are only scratching the surface , most guys don't go 2-3 either way of the piers, there's 1000s of acres of untouched water between ports. 
The lake Huron guys do get out more because of the predominate west winds but still, port huron the Mackinac Bridge! insane amount of water.
Plus who passes up a big drake white wing scoter! there seems to be more and more of these toads out there lately.
I've got about 10K wrapped up in Great lakes sea duck gear to only get out about 7 days a year!


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## Shlwego (Sep 13, 2006)

I'm neither for nor against limiting the number of Oldsquaw that can be part of a bag limit. That's for the biologists to figure out. I guess they are sort of stupid and just pile into the decoys, so if you're just into shooting a lot, I can see why it'd be fun, but... Why on earth would you want to shoot a limit of cat food? Squaws are about equal with lawn darts when it comes to table fare. I can see shooting a wall quality drake, in fact I'd like the chance to do that, but after that why bother?


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## Big Skip (Sep 1, 2010)

Population control...someone has to do it seriously though you havent seen ducks decoy till u have been on a good squaw hunt. Reckless abandonment!

Sent from my LM-X410(FG) using Tapatalk


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## andyotto (Sep 11, 2003)

Big Skip said:


> Population control...someone has to do it seriously though you havent seen ducks decoy till u have been on a good squaw hunt. Reckless abandonment!
> 
> Sent from my LM-X410(FG) using Tapatalk


You should try throwing out some orange blocks. They decoy great to our church planer boards.


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## Sofa King what? (Nov 1, 2016)

Made some great summer sausage a couple seasons ago with all the oldsquaws from multiple hunters/multiple hunts. Mixed with pork butt and a little of the venison left from the year before and some odd bufflehead, golden eyes, and ring neck ducks.


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## hmrx (May 4, 2012)

grassmaster said:


> Wisconsin leads the nation in Old Squaw harvest, those badgers over there grind em up around Green Bay,
> Old Squaws are believed to be the 2nd most populous duck behind the mallard in North America, yet most guys haven't even seen one, let alone shot a limit.
> Try going for Old Squaw on Lake Michigan for the next 10 days, aint happening, too rough.
> Complaining about 5 groups of guides at a launch is ridiculous, we are only scratching the surface , most guys don't go 2-3 either way of the piers, there's 1000s of acres of untouched water between ports.
> ...


DU says long tail population is around 1 million hardly 2nd most populus.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Michigan Sportsman mobile app


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Read the study below, conducted in 2017 if you are looking for facts.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175411

Here are some key takeaways from the study:
- Researchers are already considering overharvest a possibility for lower sea duck numbers.
- Longtail appear to be at high risk of overharvest.

Look, it doesn't take a scientist/biologist to prove it when you see it already happening with your own two eyes.


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Read the study below, conducted in 2017 if you are looking for facts.
> 
> https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175411
> 
> ...


Did you read how they are guessing?

You are letting social media dictate your opinion based on a few pictures you see. There is far more important issues to be worried about.


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## lastflight (Aug 16, 2005)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Read the study below, conducted in 2017 if you are looking for facts.
> 
> https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175411
> 
> ...


Interesting read and also interesting what you took from the journal article. This excerpt sums it up pretty well:

The few empirical studies that provided demographic information for the species and populations under consideration were typically local in scale and likely were not representative at the population scale. Breeding ranges of North American scoter species and long-tailed duck have only recently been delineated adequately through satellite telemetry projects (e.g., the Atlantic and Great Lakes sea duck migration study; http://seaduckjv.org/science-resources/atlantic-and-great-lakes-sea-duck-migration-study/), and the telemetry data indicate that much of the breeding range of these species lies outside of areas that are currently surveyed annually to estimate breeding waterfowl abundance in North America [11]. Those data also illustrate that reproductive parameter estimates for scoters and long-tailed duck are absent across the great majority of their breeding ranges. Consequently, empirical estimates that were available to us did not necessarily represent population-wide demographics, nor did they adequately characterize the uncertainty around those parameters.


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## Spartan88 (Nov 14, 2008)

TheHighLIfe said:


> how do you spell narcissist?


D o n a l d J T r u m p

What do I win?


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Read the study below, conducted in 2017 if you are looking for facts.
> 
> https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175411
> 
> ...


Several things. First your takeaway that Longtail appear to be at high risk of overharvest is taken out of context.

The actual statement from the article reads as follows:

_"Our assessment suggests that American common eider and long-tailed duck are at the greatest risk of overharvest; median estimated rmax for both populations is less than, or near, 0, indicative of no long-term growth potential even in the absence of sport and subsistence harvest." _

In addition, the article also states that long-tailed duck populations has stabilized or been increasing in recent years.

_"Based on limited breeding population data from surveys that covered only a small fraction of the breeding range of long-tailed duck in North America, Bowman et al. [11] reported evidence that this species declined during the 1980s and 1990s, *but has stabilized or increased since the early 2000s.*"_

Secondly realize that what you think you see "with your own two eyes" is among the least reliable evidence that exists. It is subject to conformation bias.

I actually applaud you for raising the question, it is best to approach the subject with an open mind rather than exhibiting cognitive dissonance when confronted with contradictory evidence.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

I'd say he was fairly open it was the idiot's that bashed him for even aski g that weren't. Wonder how many cans and bb's there once was? Wonder how many guys beached people for asking if we were killing to many. It has gotten more popular 100% and I'm not saying its crashing but we have ruined most other waterfowl at one point or another why not the squads too.


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Sparky23 said:


> I'd say he was fairly open it was the idiot's that bashed him for even aski g that weren't. Wonder how many cans and bb's there once was? Wonder how many guys beached people for asking if we were killing to many. It has gotten more popular 100% and I'm not saying its crashing but we have ruined most other waterfowl at one point or another why not the squads too.


Have hunters post market hunting days ruined the populations or have the populations declined for other reasons?


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

Not saying we did. But at one time we screwed up many pops thinking shoot as many as ya want wont hurt. It's been how long now since law changes and some species still aren't back as they should be. I just do t see the need to bash someone for asking a question. Shooting how many a day that are probably thrown in the trash for every day they can get out... I love going and pounding a few. Do it a few days a year on lm. But often wonder why when u have to turn um to 75% another meat sausage to eat um.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

craigrh13 said:


> Have hunters post market hunting days ruined the populations or have the populations declined for other reasons?


right on, craig

some on this post focus on that which is right in front of their eyes - what they see, what they shoot, what they used to see, what they used to shoot....

lost in those conversations is the wordly view from biologists who see the loss of breeding habitat, loss of food sources..... the big factors post market hunting days


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## Divers Down (Mar 31, 2008)

Sparky23 said:


> Not saying we did. But at one time we screwed up many pops thinking shoot as many as ya want wont hurt. It's been how long now since law changes and some species still aren't back as they should be. I just do t see the need to bash someone for asking a question. Shooting how many a day that are probably thrown in the trash for every day they can get out... I love going and pounding a few. Do it a few days a year on lm. But often wonder why when u have to turn um to 75% another meat sausage to eat um.


I believe that Guides and or hunting parties received the bashing by the OP. His perception was not evidence based. It was fair to suggest that. We also can’t assume that most are thrown in the trash.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Think we have all made the conclusion that what data that is available out there on longtails is limited and estimated. However, it is no reason to discredit the work. With limited data and what is out there suggesting there is a loss of breeding habitat and food sources don't you think it's all more reason to raise the questions as a sportsman. We are out there hunting, we see first hand. With increased hunting pressure on these birds what's wrong with bringing attention to this now and proactively addressing the topic? It's is the mentality of let's sit back...everything is great NOW.. don't question it, that has led us to trouble in the past.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Think we have all made the conclusion that what data that is available out there on longtails is limited and estimated. However, it is no reason to discredit the work. With limited data and what is out there suggesting there is a loss of breeding habitat and food sources don't you think it's all more reason to raise the questions as a sportsman. We are out there hunting, we see first hand. With increased hunting pressure on these birds what's wrong with bringing attention to this now and proactively addressing the topic? It's is the mentality of let's sit back...everything is great NOW.. don't question it, that has led us to trouble in the past.



canman
nothing wrong with discussing
i just prefer to let the biologists make the call before declaring things to be an issue, or a potential issue


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

I was up around Au Gres all last week. Only once was the weather good enough to get out there and shoot squaw. These birds are not easily targeted. It is not like sitting in a marsh and gunning any other duck. 

I trust the biologists. If they think there is a reason to get restrictive about harvest then I’ll trust what they and go with it. I would prefer a 4 bird limit and longer season personally but that’s just me. I’ll tske days in the field over the need to make a pile every day.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Think we have all made the conclusion that what data that is available out there on longtails is limited and estimated. However, it is no reason to discredit the work. With limited data and what is out there suggesting there is a loss of breeding habitat and food sources don't you think it's all more reason to raise the questions as a sportsman. We are out there hunting, we see first hand. With increased hunting pressure on these birds what's wrong with bringing attention to this now and proactively addressing the topic? It's is the mentality of let's sit back...everything is great NOW.. don't question it, that has led us to trouble in the past.


The article that you cited is actually a call for more study and potential management of sea duck populations. I see no reason to dispute that.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

Sparky23 said:


> Not saying we did. But at one time we screwed up many pops thinking shoot as many as ya want wont hurt. It's been how long now since law changes and some species still aren't back as they should be. I just do t see the need to bash someone for asking a question. Shooting how many a day that are probably thrown in the trash for every day they can get out... I love going and pounding a few. Do it a few days a year on lm. But often wonder why when u have to turn um to 75% another meat sausage to eat um.


If this was a Jeopardy question, I would ring in and say:

"What would an antihunter say?"


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Think we have all made the conclusion that what data that is available out there on longtails is limited and estimated. However, it is no reason to discredit the work. With limited data and what is out there suggesting there is a loss of breeding habitat and food sources don't you think it's all more reason to raise the questions as a sportsman. We are out there hunting, we see first hand. With increased hunting pressure on these birds what's wrong with bringing attention to this now and proactively addressing the topic? It's is the mentality of let's sit back...everything is great NOW.. don't question it, that has led us to trouble in the past.



canman

the issue i have is with the 'what we see' source of determination/opinion

one person, at one location, or even a number of locations, even statewide, does not see the big picture, as biologists do

birds migrate at different times, and they take different migration routes at times. what you see today may not be what you see next week. what you see at a location may not be what you see at another location

i was in marquette for the zone 1 opener, at a highly recommended spot, and hardly saw any ducks at all while being able to see the entire large marsh - about 5 batches of teal, mallards about 10 times, a few woodies.... then i was in traverse city for the zone 2 opener, and again, saw hardly any ducks. then i went to harsen's island for the zone 3 opener, and there were 15,000 ducks in the refuge, as compared to 6,700 last year - the swarms looked like november migration times

in case you have not been reading other posts, the guys up north seem to have had a terrible season, from what i read. very few reports of any success (except on geese). meanwhile, at the 30 day mark down south, halfway thru the season, we were at 88% of last year's total. their kill numbers, extrapolated for a 60 day season, would have been a 47 year record - yet what the guys in the north were seeing was one terrible year - but no one up there was calling for a reduced bag limit and blaming overgunning


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## grassmaster (Jan 10, 2009)

I can only think of about 3 species of ducks targeted less in Michigan than the Oldsquaw,
ruddy, scoter and merganser.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

John Singer said:


> If this was a Jeopardy question, I would ring in and say:
> 
> "What would an antihunter say?"


Wow...so if someone questions something an anti hunter? How bout maybe you shouldn't give ammo to antiseptic like posting hundreds of birds nobody like to eat on facebook... I hunt damn near anything g with a season and attend NRCC meetings about as pro hunting as it gets even make my living off of it bud. Moreover I never said that squaws are over hunted or declining. I posed a question of I wonder what guys said before other species declined to the point of no hunting. Good luck can see what kind of person you are your colors shine through.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

Sparky23 said:


> Wow...so if someone questions something an anti hunter? How bout maybe you shouldn't give ammo to antiseptic like posting hundreds of birds nobody like to eat on facebook... I hunt damn near anything g with a season and attend NRCC meetings about as pro hunting as it gets even make my living off of it bud. Moreover I never said that squaws are over hunted or declining. I posed a question of I wonder what guys said before other species declined to the point of no hunting. Good luck can see what kind of person you are your colors shine through.


First off it was meant in jest. Reread your posts and you can see how it fits.

Did you not understand the joke?


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

grassmaster said:


> I can only think of about 3 species of ducks targeted less in Michigan than the Oldsquaw,
> ruddy, scoter and merganser.



hey, hey there!

targeting ruddys is a fav - the filet mignon of the marsh!


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

John Singer said:


> First off it was meant in jest. Reread your posts and you can see how it fits.
> 
> Did you not understand the joke?



john

that's the problem with social media - while i, and probably others, understood you were jesting (but dead on that it would be more appropriate for an anti-hunter to make statement like that vesus a hunter), people on here really seem to get their feathers ruffled (pun intended) if their opinion is challenged (or downright disproven)

i often forget to add the , LOL, or haha, and wow, what reactions i get to my teasing!


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

TheHighLIfe said:


> john
> 
> that's the problem with social media - while i, and probably others, understood you were jesting (but dead on that it would be more appropriate for an anti-hunter to make statement like that vesus a hunter), people on here really seem to get their feathers ruffled (pun intended) if their opinion is challenged (or downright disproven)
> 
> i often forget to add the , LOL, or haha, and wow, what reactions i get to my teasing!


I appreciate this.

We all have to realize that social media is a substitute forum for a friendly discussion that best takes place with some beer.

To Sparky23, it was a joke. I did not doubt that you are a hunter. You did not need to defend yourself. I would much prefer to have this discussion with you over beer.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

John Singer said:


> I appreciate this.
> 
> We all have to realize that social media is a substitute forum for a friendly discussion that best takes place with some beer.
> 
> To Sparky23, it was a joke. I did not doubt that you are a hunter. You did not need to defend yourself. I would much prefer to have this discussion with you over beer.



john

right on! add face to face and beers and things would change

i have met a number of people who i have seemed to disagree with, and tease, on here
the face to face resulted in smiles, not fisticuffs

jeez, if i posted the comments between my hunting partners and i around the table or in the marsh on here, people would think we were minutes away from firing at each other!

especially the picture i got yesterday of my friend with his pants dropped, mooning me, and raising his middle finger. posted on here, that pic would have probably gotten me kicked off, people would think we were heading for a bar brawl. instead, 5 guys were sitting in our deer blinds laughing with tears in our eyes

life is short - have fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

To clarify, the purpose of the thread is not to question the current population. The purpose is to discuss hunting pressure on longtails and long term substainabilty. As far a razzing one another let's keep the dialogue respectful. We all hunt and share the same passion! All about some sense of humor but no need to take it that far...


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Again, the harvest is very minuscule in the big picture. This point was also brought up by the biologists at CWAC when this discussion was brought up. Social media makes it appear there are far more of these birds being killed than there actually are. Compare that to the estimated population and you can see it really is minuscule.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Do they specifically survey the hunters and guides targeting squaw? That diagram may look alot different if they did. If the population surveyed are strictly marsh hunters then it will always look miniscule. Good question to ask in the next CWAC.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

On the high end, 7500 of these birds are killed in MI in a given year?

That one severe winter, a few years back, these birds were landing on roads near Alpena and freezing to death.


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Do they specifically survey the hunters and guides targeting squaw? That diagram may look alot different if they did. If the population surveyed are strictly marsh hunters then it will always look miniscule. Good question to ask in the next CWAC.


Either way you shake it it is minimal. I hunted all week with the most known squad guide in the state. Only once were we able to target squaw. 8 were killed. Like I said. The kill seems like it’s much more than it actually is. They are not a bird you can target easily.


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Wisconsin and Maryland kill a lot of squaw. They both combined find kill over 20k annually.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> All about some sense of humor but no need to take it that far...


You have got to be kidding.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Only 8...how many hunters? You guys must have been doing something wrong.Obviously weather is a factor, but more times than not you can get out after them. They fly great in walleye chop.


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Only 8...how many hunters? You guys must have been doing something wrong.Obviously weather is a factor, but more times than not you can get out after them. They fly great in walleye chop.


Bad weather and stale birds. Seriously decoyed like stale mallards. Everyone was struggling with them. As I’ve said, they aren’t nearly as easy to hunt as social media makes it appear to be. 2 hunters. Shooting could have been a little better but the birds were being funny.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

John Singer said:


> First off it was meant in jest. Reread your posts and you can see how it fits.
> 
> Did you not understand the joke?


What exactactly was said that was anti hunter? No I dont understand that joke.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> To clarify, the purpose of the thread is not to question the current population. The purpose is to discuss hunting pressure on longtails and long term substainabilty. As far a razzing one another let's keep the dialogue respectful. We all hunt and share the same passion! All about some sense of humor but no need to take it that far...


i do not see how the two things, population and pressure/long term, can be discussed separately

this year's harvest will affect next year's population - along with many many other factros which appear to have more of an effect on the population than hunting prssure

if there were a billion longtails this year, there would be 999 million after this year
if there were only a million, there would be a mounting next to the passenger pigeon next year

biologists will update the population next year
i suggest we wait for their report
whatever we discuss and decide (which seems impossible) is only wasting our time
we have no say, we have no decision making ability
the biologists will have the data and will make the call

isn't friday black friday?
what is on your xmas list? (just trying to switch the controversy to xmas versus Christmas, or 'the non-religiously named december holiday of the year' - haha)

yes, we have hunting in common
some people like 'lewis black' style humor
some don't 

i certainly do! haha


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

Sparky23 said:


> What exactactly was said that was anti hunter? No I dont understand that joke.


OMG!


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

Omggg. Enlighten me o great one...


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Do they specifically survey the hunters and guides targeting squaw? That diagram may look alot different if they did. If the population surveyed are strictly marsh hunters then it will always look miniscule. Good question to ask in the next CWAC.



i am mostly a marsh hunter

i have never shot an old squaw

getting a drake this year is my goal
not sure how to do that, where or when, but i will find out

then i will go back to the marsh

do not count me into the 'growing number of longtail hunters'
i will be 'an in and outer'

and i suspect many using guides to scratch them from their wish list will do - especially if they do not eat well


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

Sparky23 said:


> Omggg. Enlighten me o great one...


i can explain it for you, but i cannot understand it for you


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

So why did you say it about me? Quoted me. I wrote none of that


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

Sparky23 said:


> What exactactly was said that was anti hunter? No I dont understand that joke.


Ok: If you go back and read the post of yours that I quoted and realize that:

1. Managed sport hunting has not decimated populations. Market hunting has. Sport hunting actually places a value on a hunted population.

2. Most of us hunters do not throw our game animals in the trash.

3. Many people eat seaducks and even if some of us have their meat mixed with pork and made into sausage, there is nothing inherently wrong with that.

You are correct that the fact that I tried to point this out to you as a joke does show what kind of person I am as "my colors shine through." I am good with that.

Like I said, I would much rather have this conversation with you over beer rather than online. I would much rather you be my friend than my enemy. Life is too short to cultivate enemies.

BTW: Who is Bud?


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## SMLC (Nov 9, 2018)

idylmoments said:


> Now that things are freezing up inland, pressure is really increasing on the squaw. But of the 8 or 10 groups chasing them Sunday, I did not see any rallying. Everyone spread out and played nice. Amazing.
> And I was glad to see Mr Green Jeans at the launch keeping everyone honest. Surprising being that it was the opening weekend of deer.


 We noticed and appreciated Mr Green there as well


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

DecoySlayer said:


> Excuse me? Have you hunted sea ducks out on the east coast, or even seen them hunting them out there?
> 
> Besides I EARNED my "nick name", it's also the name on my boat, AND, my registered radio call sign. Dang gum it, you shoot ONE decoy in your life and you can NEVER live it down!
> 
> Quack? I don't think so, I hunt divers, not mallards.



slayer

i was not referring to you

pls reread


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

John Singer said:


> That is hilarious. Rotflmao! I am taking that as a joke.
> 
> Now realize that many of us retirees do get off the couch and hunt.
> 
> ...



john

i do not think he was joking, as has often been the case on this amusing thread
check how few 'likes' he has received

my guess is that he is a frustrated and jealous person who meant it

if i only had the strength and energy to get off this couch and find my walker and car keys, i would drive to meet him face to face, if i don't forget where i was going, and if there was a handicap parking spot available, and give him a piece of my mind - haha


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

craigrh13 said:


> Didn’t the Atlantic coast basically reduce numbers on everything for the most part?


craig

they announced the are cutting the black duck limit in the atlantic next year

i think they blamed the guides - haha


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## DecoySlayer (Mar 12, 2016)

TheHighLIfe said:


> slayer
> 
> i was not referring to you
> 
> pls reread


OK, sorry


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## DecoySlayer (Mar 12, 2016)

TheHighLIfe said:


> craig
> 
> they announced the are cutting the black duck limit in the atlantic next year
> 
> i think they blamed the guides - haha


If I remember correctly there was a period in the '80's when you could not shoot black ducks in the Atlantic Flyway.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

BTW: The Atlantic Flyway is looking at severe restrictions to Canada goose and mallard limits starting next year.

https://deltawaterfowl.org/atlantic...ortened-mallard-limits-reduced-for-2019-2020/


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## DecoySlayer (Mar 12, 2016)

John Singer said:


> BTW: The Atlantic Flyway is looking at severe restrictions to Canada goose and mallard limits starting next year.
> 
> https://deltawaterfowl.org/atlantic...ortened-mallard-limits-reduced-for-2019-2020/



Sounds like the '80's again.


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## Time_Will_Tell (Apr 5, 2009)

I glanced at the Atlantic season next year 2 mallards a restricted goose harvest that’s kind of tuff to swallow depending on state because the limit changes per state . I see there are some extremely frustrated sportsman with the regards to the restrictions. That being said it has nothing to do with this thread . I should probably say I have not shot a long tail but at some point I will. The guys going out and smashing them is such a small percentage of the hunting population they could never put a dent in them. Guys spending on Average 250 a gun to go out and shoot them and there money that support some of the local shops = a good thing. Depending on hunting location the equipment needed to get out there safely there is a small percentage of guys that can do it on a regular basis. Looking at Lake Huron noaa this week unless inside the bay your going to get pounded trying to get these birds so the days you can get out in a 60 day season is pretty small . Do guides hunting and fishing increase pressure of a given area sure. It’s no different than sponsored guides selling there rigs at the end of season to get a new one each year then them grumbling there are more guys on the river. I don’t see many groups going out and dropping 20 to 50 grand in duck hunting equipment each year not to mention you need atleast a pair of guys if not a group to do it safely


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## Carpenter Bill (Jan 27, 2018)

I personally think so you guys need a little cheese to go along with your whine, This is the kind of chat The gives all hunting a badd name. Good luck to all be safe have a good things giving and shoot Them in the lips


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

DecoySlayer said:


> OK, sorry



no problem, slayer - we have almost always seen eye to eye on here


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## Carpenter Bill (Jan 27, 2018)

Decoys slayer is just like a king eider, You got Love him, He is very knowledgeable, And Very wise Grasshopper


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Take a look at what other states are doing with there sea duck limits....reducing.

"This five-duck limit can consist of no more than four scoters, four long-tailed ducks and four eiders. The reduction in season length and bag limit is in response to suspected long-term declines in sea duck populations and a general lack of understanding regarding some aspects of sea duck biology."


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

so much for the lull........


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Take a look at what other states are doing with there sea duck limits....reducing.
> 
> "This five-duck limit can consist of no more than four scoters, four long-tailed ducks and four eiders. The reduction in season length and bag limit is in response to suspected long-term declines in sea duck populations and a general lack of understanding regarding some aspects of sea duck biology."


Have you contacted the actual professionals about this or are you just gonna stick to a social media bitch fest? Let me know what they say if and when you ever do.


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## TheHighLIfe (Sep 5, 2017)

craigrh13 said:


> Have you contacted the actual professionals about this or are you just gonna stick to a social media bitch fest? Let me know what they say if and when you ever do.



craig 

he does not have to contact professionals, as he obviously has declared himself THE source of all worldly knowledge - how sad

even sadder is that he is the only one who can remove this thread


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## Carpenter Bill (Jan 27, 2018)

Come on now can man, You make the long tail seemed to be like the Rodney king of ducks, Good luck out there today guys be safe and shoot Them in the lips. Love this website, Thought it was to post pictures and how good action is, Not a debating website, Have heard enough of that with the elections that just got through


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Additional model data supporting population declines.

"Our model predicted that the number of long-tailed ducks breeding on the YKD is declining; however, the rate of decline that we estimated (19%) is much steeper than the average decline over a 30-year period (~2.5 – 4%) reported by the North American Breeding Waterfowl Survey (NABWS) for long-tailed ducks counted in Alaska and the Yukon, Canada (Conant and Mallek, 2006)."


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## Carpenter Bill (Jan 27, 2018)

OK kann man, I respect your opinion but do you ever think it's God's way a thin in the herd, Numbers of Ducks and geese have gone up-and-down for hundreds of years. And it will be like that forever, We can only do our part in helping, Have a happy Thanksgiving good luck shoot them in the lips


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Additional model data supporting population declines.
> 
> "Our model predicted that the number of long-tailed ducks breeding on the YKD is declining; however, the rate of decline that we estimated (19%) is much steeper than the average decline over a 30-year period (~2.5 – 4%) reported by the North American Breeding Waterfowl Survey (NABWS) for long-tailed ducks counted in Alaska and the Yukon, Canada (Conant and Mallek, 2006)."


Stop crying on social media and go talk to the people that matter. See what they have to say. If you don’t want to believe anything else then maybe they can settle you down. Good lord, man, give it a rest.


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## wavie (Feb 2, 2004)

Longtails from the YKD dont winter on the great lakes per the SDJV study.
https://seaduckjv.org/science-resou...ration-study/long-tailed-duck-migration-maps/

Your comparison is similar to the Atlantic flyway reducing their mallard limit to 2, thus requesting the Mississippi flyway to follow suit. Two separate populations, managed differently. 

I'm all for the resource but nothing indicates your statements are true regarding the science behind a need for conservation measures.

Good topic. Contact Mark Peitre over at deltawaterfowls research center at long pointed ontario. He has initiated the longtail study on the great lakes. Voice your concerns there.

I liken your example of social media exagerating the number of longtails harvested to ducks being shot in Mexico with liberal or no limits on some species. Your first reaction is how can birds be harvested at such large numbers, but when in reality it's only a drop in the bucket.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Whether looking at localized population or the population as a whole.....if it is DOWN it's DOWN!

Here is more information on the overall decrease on longtail populations in North America.

"Long-tailed ducks live in a large area and there are quite a few of them, but their numbers have shrunk in the past 10 years or so. In North America, they have shrunk by nearly half in the last 30 years."

I wouldn't call that nature's way of controlling the population as one referred to above.

The naysayers keep on responding with nothing....please share some data that shows INCREASING populations as your comments support?


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Whether looking at localized population or the population as a whole.....if it is DOWN it's DOWN!
> 
> Here is more information on the overall decrease on longtail populations in North America.
> 
> ...


Take your argument to an actual biologist. I realize you think you are or know more than them. Please let me know how it goes. I would love to hear them put you in your place.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

craigrh13 said:


> Take your argument to an actual biologist. I realize you think you are or know more than them. Please let me know how it goes. I would love to hear them put you in your place.


Where is your data bud? If you know the local biologist so well you should have the info to back your comments at your fingertips?? 
All yack!


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## quackmaster (Sep 29, 2004)

It’s not worth the argument man one of the biggest naysayers on this thread actively hunts with one of the biggest problem guides out there. He’s going to discredit at every turn possible. I took this issue outside of the forum and sent a letter direct to the NRC and US FWS yesterday through contacts provided by another on the forum. They are the final decision makers on season dates and limits. I requested their current research findings as well as a request to research the wintering population of long tails in Saginaw bay proper with consideration of a reduced limit for the area from Tawas to Port Austin based on findings. I reported my observation based on actively hunting the area over the last 15years. The guys outside of that area can breathe easy I’m just concerned about our wintering population on the bay and will continue to push this issue. I’ll keep you updated via pm how this works out. Don’t waste your time with this anymore.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

Enjoy!


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Great Quackmaster. I will be in touch to see how I can support in the effort.


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## Walleye500 (Dec 29, 2016)

Ummm Who is the best guide? 4 of my buddies and myself want to hunt some old squaws before their all gone


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Additional model data supporting population declines.
> 
> "Our model predicted that the number of long-tailed ducks breeding on the YKD is declining; however, the rate of decline that we estimated (19%) is much steeper than the average decline over a 30-year period (~2.5 – 4%) reported by the North American Breeding Waterfowl Survey (NABWS) for long-tailed ducks counted in Alaska and the Yukon, Canada (Conant and Mallek, 2006)."


You really need to read the entire paper that you are taking quotes from. The discussion and conclusions of the authors that you cited do not call for the changes that you are calling for.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

No need to pay a guide to hunt squaw. Use your walleye boat, throw a few deeks out and start hunting. It's that Easy! Save your money for the taxidermist! 




Walleye500 said:


> Ummm Who is the best guide? 4 of my buddies and myself want to hunt some old squaws before their all gone


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Where is your data bud? If you know the local biologist so well you should have the info to back your comments at your fingertips??
> All yack!


For the 100th time this was brought up last year at CWAC. They said the harvest is next to nothing in regards to the population. That’s from actual people who do this for a living. However, you only believe what you want to believe. Call them and ask them yourself. Let me know what they say.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

craigrh13 said:


> For the 100th time this was brought up last year at CWAC. They said the harvest is next to nothing in regards to the population. That’s from actual people who do this for a living. However, you only believe what you want to believe. Call them and ask them yourself. Let me know what they say.


SHOW me the data buddy...


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> "Long-tailed ducks live in a large area and there are quite a few of them, but their numbers have shrunk in the past 10 years or so. In North America, they have shrunk by nearly half in the last 30 years."


This is the source of your quote: http://www.biokids.umich.edu/critters/Clangula_hyemalis/

Here is the entire quote (which you have again presented out of context):

*"Are they endangered?*
_Long-tailed ducks live in a large area and there are quite a few of them, but their numbers have shrunk in the past 10 years or so. In North America, they have shrunk by nearly half in the last 30 years. Much of their breeding habitat has been destroyed by crude oil pollution and harvesting peat, which is decaying plants. They have also died from lead, mercury and oil pollution, from getting tangled in fishing nets, and from infection by avian cholera or avian flu. There are estimated to be 6,200,000 to 6,800,000 long-tailed ducks in the Arctic. ("Long-tailed Duck Clangula hyemalis", 2004; Braune, 2010; "IUCN Red List of Threatened Species", 2010; North and Lair, 2006)"_


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

On


John Singer said:


> This is the source of your quote: http://www.biokids.umich.edu/critters/Clangula_hyemalis/
> 
> Here is the entire quote (which you have again presented out of context):
> 
> ...


If the population is DOWN its DOWN! Whats your point...


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## wavie (Feb 2, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Take a look at what other states are doing with there sea duck limits....reducing.


They reduced the eastern seaboard limits because they used to be 15 seaducks/day.. 
What other states have reduced their limits based on science, not emotion?


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

wavie said:


> They reduced the eastern seaboard limits because they used to be 15 seaducks/day..
> What other states have reduced their limits based on science, not emotion?


You can only take 5 seaducks a day in most east coast states. Where you trying to go with this...we can shoot 6 in MI. What is your point?


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> On
> 
> If the population is DOWN its DOWN! Whats your point...


There are several points to be made here. I am not confident that I can fully communicate those points to you so that you can understand.

1. If hunting mortality is not a limiting factor to the overall population of a hunted species, reducing that mortality will not positively affect that population. At least two of the sources that you cited imply or state this.

2. The other source that you cited stated that the population is increasing:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175411#sec022

Here is a statement from that source: _"Based on limited breeding population data from surveys that covered only a small fraction of the breeding range of long-tailed duck in North America, Bowman et al. [11] reported evidence that this species declined during the 1980s and 1990s, *but has stabilized or increased since the early 2000s.*"
_
3. People who are making extraordinary claims have the burden of proof. The burden of proof does not belong to those presenting evidence disputing the claim. One of those sources that you cite states that the entire hunting mortality on long tailed ducks is less than 30,000/year. None of those sources states that hunting mortality is a factor affecting the population of long tailed ducks. Those statements are not extraordinary. 

Your claim that what you see on Facebook with your own two eyes is.

4. Yelling things like: "If the population is DOWN its DOWN! Whats your point..." over and over make others think you are still in junior high.


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## wavie (Feb 2, 2004)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Where you trying to go with this...we can shoot 6 in MI. What is your point?


Michigan I dont believe has ever been 15 seaducks/day. If the science warranted a reduction, one would take place, by biologists studying sea ducks. Hence we get 6/day. It was reduced out east because of science, the point I feel you've been overlooking. Pictures on social media wouldn't influence their decision. 

_Bowman et al. [11] reported evidence that this species declined during the 1980s and 1990s, *but has stabilized or increased since the early 2000s.*"_

John, I was about to indicate these findings. You are stating biologists findings, not personal views based on social media pictures, that I can live by.

Sorry can man, but your logic and thinking is how we lost the possibility of dove hunting in Michigan. Decisions solely based on emotion and not sound available science.

It's fine to be passionate on a subject, but your point would be more accepted if it were backed by sound science.


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## ThE CaN MaN (Nov 27, 2004)

Forgot the most important part of the sentence guys...let me share. 
"Based on limited breeding population data from surveys that covered only a small fraction of the breeding range of long-tailed duck in North America, Bowman et al. [11]"....

And....

"According to the simulation results, we grouped the 7 populations into 3 categories reflecting the risk of overharvest. The eastern black scoter and western surf scoter populations are at lowest risk of overharvest; eastern surf scoter, western black scoter, and white-winged scoter are at moderate risk; *and long-tailed duck and American common eider are at the highest risk of overharvest."*


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

ThE CaN MaN said:


> Forgot the most important part of the sentence guys...let me share.
> "Based on limited breeding population data from surveys that covered only a small fraction of the breeding range of long-tailed duck in North America, Bowman et al. [11]"....
> 
> And....
> ...


Go talk to a biologist and then get back to us. Tell us what they say.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

Ok. So how is 11 or more the highest is all I am sayin. Most of us shoot how many on here? My buddies that barely hunt shoot 25 30 lol. So they have no clue


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## Far Beyond Driven (Jan 23, 2006)

Statistical sampling. If they get enough people (everyone who buys a license in any state) to answer close enough to correctly, then based on a bunch of confidence levels and other crap they can come up with a pretty good answer. We use this all the time at work, and while I don't fully grasp the voodoo math, it is proven.

Most of us here are not statistically valid, as we hunt more and better than 90% of the license holders.


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## Urriah (Jul 26, 2013)

Sparky23 said:


> Ok. So how is 11 or more the highest is all I am sayin. Most of us shoot how many on here? My buddies that barely hunt shoot 25 30 lol. So they have no clue


That's not what the harvest estimates are based on. It's just a metric. That's how they sort hunters into grouping to ask them to participate in the 3 season long federal wing collection survey. If 10% respond 0 harvested, 80% respond 1-10, 10% respond 11 or more, that's how they distribute the surveys as well. That survey is then used to determine harvest estimates, etc.


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## ON ICE (Sep 17, 2006)

The feds also send out random serveys. They ask you to log everyday hunted along with county, number of birds harvested and type of bird.

Sent from my LM-X410PM using Michigan Sportsman mobile app


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

The Feds are the one who come up with harvest estimates, not the state. They explain how they do it on the USFW page.


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## John Singer (Aug 20, 2004)

ON ICE said:


> The feds also send out random serveys. They ask you to log everyday hunted along with county, number of birds harvested and type of bird.
> 
> Sent from my LM-X410PM using Michigan Sportsman mobile app





Urriah said:


> That's not what the harvest estimates are based on. It's just a metric. That's how they sort hunters into grouping to ask them to participate in the 3 season long federal wing collection survey. If 10% respond 0 harvested, 80% respond 1-10, 10% respond 11 or more, that's how they distribute the surveys as well. That survey is then used to determine harvest estimates, etc.


Thank you for sharing that information. 

I have participated in the wing survey in the past.

It is interesting to learn how the harvest surveys are conducted.


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## quackmaster (Sep 29, 2004)

craigrh13 said:


> Here you go. This was presented at CWAC just now. There’s your data. By the way, total active duck hunters in the state is 33k killing 300k total waterfowl. Compare that against these numbers in the pic.
> View attachment 360739


Really interesting info in that pic. Thanks for sharing as I really wanted to attend, but was stuck with some work travel. I took those sea duck numbers and did a little math around them just to see how population is impacted based on harvest. Here are my assumptions based on long tail research that is out there on the web:
6-8 eggs per clutch 
30% nest success rate
10% of ducklings survive >30 days
Hatches produce 50/50 male/female ratio
I took that data and considered it for the sag bay population of long tails against some assumptions as follows:
25% of total sea ducks harvested in MI are from Sag Bay wintering population
Equates to 4,070 sea ducks harvested from sag bay population
Harvest composition is approx 65% male, 35% female
Equates to 2,645 male and 1,424 female harvested
20k approx sag bay wintering population
Being generous I said initial composition of wintering population is 60% female 40% male.
Equates to 12k female and 8k male
So with those assumptions I did the math as follows:

12,000 females - 1,424 harvested = 10,576 ducks available for breeding x 8 eggs per clutch = 84,608 eggs produced x 30% nest success rate = 25,382 hatched eggs x 10% survival rate = 2,538 new ducks per yr / 2 to consider 50% male to female ratio = 1269 new ducks per gender

1269 new females - 1,424 harvested = -155 new ducks per yr

1269 new males - 2,645 harvested = -1,376 new ducks per yr

So in all at our current rate we will have 1,531 less long tails per yr in the sag bay pop which is an approx 8% decline in population per year. Now there are some assumptions here and they can definitely change and I am sure there are other considerations and fancy math that could be done, but I tried to stay very conservative with larger egg clutches, a bigger wintering population number, etc. what this means is that within 8yrs the sag bay population is reduced by almost one half and in 15yrs that population will be reduced by 75% considering an 8% decrease per yr. I enjoy hunting sea ducks as much as anyone else, especially in my home waters of sag bay and because of this I would like my kids to experience this type of hunting when they are of age in the next 10-15 yrs. I hope that there is some realization around the damage being done by the powers that be in our great state now before it’s too late. I am afraid that a good amount of damage is already being done based on observations over the past years. A reduction down to 4 sea ducks a day would balance the scale based on my rough math and I hope that the excess and greed of some to show pile pics and make a few bucks over the short term will not overwhelm a respect and conservation of our heritage for the long term as a 4 duck limit is far from restrictive.


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## Tunaman (Apr 17, 2006)

One thing that is not talked about are the hundreds that are killed in commercial fishing nets every spring. We find them floating dead in the water every year in augres


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

quackmaster said:


> Really interesting info in that pic. Thanks for sharing as I really wanted to attend, but was stuck with some work travel. I took those sea duck numbers and did a little math around them just to see how population is impacted based on harvest. Here are my assumptions based on long tail research that is out there on the web:
> 6-8 eggs per clutch
> 30% nest success rate
> 10% of ducklings survive >30 days
> ...


So basically they said due to where Longtail and many sea ducks breed it’s almost impossible to know much about their population because they breed so far north. They did say that the Great Lakes have experienced a boom in wintering sea ducks due to changes in food here. Especially Lake Michigan. They ended saying there is no reason to be concerned right now.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

"Right now"


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Sparky23 said:


> "Right now"


If you feel you know more then the experts by all mean feel free to call them up or go to school and study biology. If not, then stop acting like the birds are on the brink of extinction as there is zero proof to think so. People are just looking for something to bitch about.


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## lastflight (Aug 16, 2005)

craigrh13 said:


> So basically they said due to where Longtail and many sea ducks breed it’s almost impossible to know much about their population because they breed so far north. They did say that the Great Lakes have experienced a boom in wintering sea ducks due to changes in food here. Especially Lake Michigan. They ended saying there is no reason to be concerned right now.


Craig - Thanks for attending the meeting and passing all of this information along.


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## grassmaster (Jan 10, 2009)

If they ever do anything at all to restrict Oldsquaw limits , keep it at 6 , but only 2 can be hens.
Mother Nature does more to protect Oldsquaw numbers than any biologist could ever do.
They are protected enough by the Gales of November! and December


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## wavie (Feb 2, 2004)

30% nest success is phenomenal, whereas 15% on the prairies they jump for joy.

there is a lot more influencing the population than simple math.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

craigrh13 said:


> If you feel you know more then the experts by all mean feel free to call them up or go to school and study biology. If not, then stop acting like the birds are on the brink of extinction as there is zero proof to think so. People are just looking for something to bitch about.


Actually did go to college for bioolgy... fisheries to start but I have a clue thanks. And again not saying they are but I believe the dnr about as much as I believe CNN. You get what they want you to hear. All species that are low in population were at one time high. Not saying they are in danger just that YOU HAVE NO MORE CLUE than me and as the sport of shooting them grows in leaps and bounds yearly as it has then something MAY need to be done


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## craigrh13 (Oct 24, 2011)

Sparky23 said:


> Actually did go to college for bioolgy... fisheries to start but I have a clue thanks. And again not saying they are but I believe the dnr about as much as I believe CNN. You get what they want you to hear. All species that are low in population were at one time high. Not saying they are in danger just that YOU HAVE NO MORE CLUE than me and as the sport of shooting them grows in leaps and bounds yearly as it has then something MAY need to be done


 Counts are done by the FWS not the DNR.


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## Sparky23 (Aug 15, 2007)

I realize this....same that ran lake Michigan into the ground with lake turds. So are you willing to say that 100% there is no way that hunter harvest will impact squaws? Bigger harvests combined with couple bad winters? Nets in bad spots....poor nesting season. There is no way right


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## grassmaster (Jan 10, 2009)

No way man, more robins are killed with BB guns in Michigan than Old Squaws.
Mom always said said don't shoot the Cardinals!


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## quackmaster (Sep 29, 2004)

I think the only missing link here for a stronger impact assessment would be a flyover count of wintering birds in the bay and a harvest survey at a few key launches/guide survey and you could tighten up the numbers a bit, and have a decent idea of the impact of that specific population year over year. The DNR/USFW saying they can’t get at least an idea off of that just demonstrates they will like everything else take a reactive approach to management. I think overall squaw number are solid, but pummeling a specific population yr in and yr out is going to cause a loss of opportunity for everyone. If they could at least come out and say we don’t think there is a problem and here is why by bringing some factual data to the table I can accept that no issues, but just saying we don’t know much about them and they breed too far north to track so we will just turn a blind eye is poor management, especially considering they winter here so tracking up north is irrelevant. Just let them come to you and count them... Here was a good page on hatch info that I used for my initial assessment. A rare instance that I would reference something UofM related haha (go green!)
https://animaldiversity.org/accounts/Clangula_hyemalis/


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## TNL (Jan 6, 2005)

Aerial survey over near shore Lake Michigan each week during late October and all of November for a few years would be telling; get a baseline of migrating Squaw and also hunter numbers. Too bad most DNR flight time is going to be burned looking for bait piles next year.


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