# 60 Days???



## Bmac (Jul 7, 2002)

Copied from another site. It sounds like it *could * be a 60 day season with Pintails all 60, 1 per day (I never see them anyway  ). Scaup days and/or bag may be restricted also due to low population. 

2005 Preliminary Harvest-Management Considerations

Division of Migratory Bird Management
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
July 20, 2005

The purpose of this document is to provide Flyway Councils and other interested organizations initial considerations regarding harvest strategies for the 2005 hunting season developed by the Division of Migratory Bird Management (MBM). The suggestions and recommendations below for various waterfowl species and populations do not necessarily reflect positions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) or the Service=s Regulations Committee. MBM staff will be present at all Flyway Council meetings, and subsequent technical discussions may influence final MBM harvest management recommendations.

Ducks

Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM): The Service is continuing development of an AHM protocol that would allow hunting regulations to vary among Flyways in a manner that recognizes each Flyways unique breeding-ground derivation of mallards. For the 2005 hunting season, we believe that the prescribed regulatory choice for the Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyways should continue to depend on the status of midcontinent mallards. We also recommend that the regulatory choice for the Atlantic Flyway continues to depend on the status of eastern mallards. Investigations of the dynamics of western mallards (and their potential effect on regulations in the West) are continuing; therefore we are not yet prepared to recommend an AHM protocol for this mallard stock.

For the 2005 hunting season, the Service is continuing to consider the same regulatory alternatives as those used last year. The nature of the restrictive, moderate, and liberal alternatives has remained essentially unchanged since 1997, except that extended framework dates have been offered in the moderate and liberal regulatory alternatives since 2002. Also, the Service agreed in 2003 to place a constraint on closed seasons in the western three Flyways whenever the midcontinent mallard breeding-population size (traditional survey area plus MN, MI, and WI) is >5.5 million. 

Optimal AHM strategies for the 2005 hunting season were calculated using: (1) harvest-management objectives specific to each mallard stock; (2) the 2005 regulatory alternatives; and (3) current population models and associated weights for midcontinent and eastern mallards. Based on this years survey results of 7.54 million midcontinent mallards (traditional surveys area plus MN, WI, and MI), 3.9 million ponds in Prairie Canada, and 1.05 million eastern mallards, the prescribed regulatory choice for all four Flyways is the liberal alternative.

Pintails: At the early season regulations meeting, the Service endorsed the continued use of the pintail harvest strategy without alteration from the provision adopted in 2004. With an observed spring breeding population of 2,561,000 and a projected fall flight of 3,215,000 pintails, the harvest strategy prescribes a full season and a 1-bird bag in all Flyways. Under the liberal season length, this regulation is expected to result in a harvest of 603,000 pintails with 2,288,000 birds in next years breeding population. 

In addition, we support continued review and revision of the strategy as discussed during the early season regulations meeting.

Black Ducks: During this past year, we have continued dialogue with the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyways regarding assessments of the harvest potential of black ducks. We are particularly concerned with evidence of a long-term decline in the productivity of black ducks, which implies declining harvest potential. Harvest rates of black ducks have increased concurrently with implementation of AHM and the return to longer seasons. Current harvest rates as measured by reward banding are now at or near the levels which are likely to produce maximum sustainable harvests. If the decline in productivity continues and harvest rates are not reduced, harvest and population size can be expected to decline as well. In light of the assessment work conducted to date, MBM does not support any regulatory changes this year.

Canvasbacks: Based on regulatory actions in recent years and recommendations from the Flyway Councils, the canvasback harvest strategy was modified in 2004 to allow partial seasons within the regular duck season. The modification allows a canvasback season length equal to that of the restrictive AHM regulatory alternative if a full season is not supported, but the reduced harvest from the restricted season predicts a spring abundance the following year equal to or greater than the objective of 500,000 birds. Otherwise, the season on canvasbacks would be closed. Further, based on a recommendation from the Pacific Flyway Council, Alaska would have a 1-bird daily bag limit for the entire regular duck season in all years unless the Service determines that it is in the best interest of the canvasback resource to close the season in Alaska as well as the lower 48 states. 

This years spring survey resulted in an estimate of 520,574 canvasbacks. The estimate of ponds in Prairie Canada was 3.9 million, which was 17% above the average. The allowable harvest in the U.S. calculated from these numbers is 84,424 birds, which is below the predicted U.S. harvest of 118,904 thousand associated with the liberal duck season alternative. Thus, for 2005-06, a canvasback season the entire length of the regular season is not supported. However, the restrictive season length within the regular duck season is expected to result in a harvest of about 61,758 canvasbacks, and is supported.

Scaup: A recent assessment of scaup population and harvest dynamics suggests that scaup harvest potential has decreased along with the observed population declines, and that current scaup harvest levels may be at or approaching maximum sustainable yield (MSY) levels. In addition, this assessment work suggests that scaup harvest rates have continued to increase since the early 1990s while population sizes have continued to decline. Based on the historical low scaup breeding population observed this year and continued harvest levels close to MSY, we recommend that the Flyway Councils consider regulatory changes to reduce the level of scaup harvest by 25%. We believe that this is a reasonable objective in the short term, recognizing that future assessment work will be required to determine if this level of decrease results in a meaningful reduction in harvest rates. If not, then further harvest restrictions may be required. In the interim, we will continue our assessment work with the goal of developing a framework that will support the use of a state dependent harvest policy to inform scaup harvest management. Therefore, we urge the Councils to consider changes in regulatory options (bag limit and/or season lengths) that achieve this level of harvest reduction. 

Mottled Ducks: A recent review by Service staff of population status information for mottled ducks on the Western Gulf Coast has highlighted a growing concern for the declining population of this locally popular gamebird. Recent drought conditions continue to adversely impact habitats in the western portions of the species range. We recommend that the Central and Mississippi Flyways give serious consideration to possible management options for reducing harvest and increasing survival of mottled ducks on the Central and Western Gulf Coast during deliberations of this year's hunting regulations. In the coming year, we would like to cooperatively review available status information on mottled ducks with the Atlantic, Mississippi, and Central Flyway Councils, and begin reviewing the adequacy of monitoring programs and ensuring appropriate levels of harvest.


----------



## quackmaster (Sep 29, 2004)

wow, its not lookin to good for this year from reports. Im looking forward to the 1 pintail a day limit I see them all the time and have to pass with the restricted season. A little worried about the scaup population.


----------



## lwingwatcher (Mar 25, 2001)

Lookin like this year is gonna be hell on buffies....


----------



## Branta (Feb 6, 2002)

I had not seen that report yet. thanks for sharing. (and I just got a huge packet of info from the DNR's CWAC coordinator!)

It appears that Pond counts save our behinds once again! (if you look at it that way). somewhere.... they found 3/4 of a million additional breeding mallards since late spring!

early reports had pops at 6.7 if I member correctly. If that was to hold true, we actually would have had a RESTRICTED season (30/3) based on the old AHM model (see below).












what if they are off? what if they were just a _little over optimistic _ by say... 6%. seems reasonable right? I can tell you, it's a real possibility as their own CI numbers (95% Confidence Interval) is probably way higher than that.
Well then your "new" number is 7million birds and 4 million ponds. now see what you get! Heaven forbid the real number is the 6.7 that they originally estimated.

my point in sharing all this is; 
1. I think you should all see how the federal AHM matrix works. and just as importantly, 
2. how critical the accuracy and timing of these surveys and observations are and
3. the implications of that data.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
as an aside,
When I was a young boy, too young to drive and bird dogging my first real mentor, the local MDNR biologist Bob Odom (god rest his soul) , he drilled into my head something I will never ever forget. he said; "_sometimes, you gotta step out of the office, step out of that truck and get your feet dirty to really see what's going on." _ - wildlife biometrics and modeling tools are wonderful, essential mngmnt tools... they just can't replace the foot stompers and the confidence you have in your own head, in your decisions when "seeing is believing". 

Let's prep for a liberal season, let's get excited with wishful anticpation of upcoming hunts, but my own .02 is that I think we're going to be hearing a lot more "where are all the ducks?" this coming season.


----------



## Huntsman27 (Sep 29, 2004)

have to agree with that. Im sure its going to be about like last year, which indeed sucked. The question is.....how many guys will bail and not participate? I just look forward to the forthcoming foibles of my hunting companions.....you know, blown waders, forgetting the drain plug, dunkings, ah the love of duck hunting!!


----------



## lwingwatcher (Mar 25, 2001)

Branta said:


> It appears that Pond counts save our behinds once again! (if you look at it that way). somewhere.... they found 3/4 of a million additional breeding mallards since late spring!


Well, whaddaya know....those bread eaters are good for something besides cleaning up the parks....

At least there are better odds of catching fresh flights of divers with a longer season.


----------



## Branta (Feb 6, 2002)

yeah, well I think you nailed it earlier! 

have fun with those buffies!!!  

~~~~~~~~~~
I should add an addendum to my earlier post. the matrix shown is what I had readily available, but it's dated. it's possible that it could change (slightly), but I think it gives everyone a feel for how sensitive the matrix can be. we've been floating along the "transition" zone of this matrix for about the last 4 years as I recall. a zone where a little kick up/down in either pond counts or breed pop and it has dramatic affects on your hunting season.


----------



## Kevlar (Jul 21, 2004)

Branta,

Thanks for sharing the Matrix table with us. I have talked to losts of people about seasons and how they come up with the bag limits and length of seasons. This is the first I have heard of such a table. Seems like I'm not talking to enough educated people on the subject.

Teach me more oh great one.... 


Kevlar


----------



## dinoday (Feb 22, 2004)

I admit to being a relative newbie to waterfowl hunting,but read a lot about wildlife all the time and have for years.I've been reading of the concern over declines in populations in different species of ducks and what can be don about it.
It is encouraging to hear the mallard population is better than they thought,but I have to agree with Branta...what if they are wrong?Seeing on that graph we are as close to the line as we are I would err on the side of caution.I would love to have the longer season,but I think if we have the longer season and they're wrong there will be lots of complaints...if we have the shorter season and they're wrong(about the bigger pop.) we do no damage and if they're right we have a larger population going into next breeding season.That's a good thing...leading to a larger huntable population the following year.
Granted I don't know anything other than how it's been the last 3 or 4 years,but I'm easy to please..if I see a few ducks I'm a happy guy.No matter what they do some people won't be happy.
I'm guessing they'll opt for the 45 day season,but I guess we'll find out pretty soon!
Thanks for the info Bmac and Branta!


----------



## bombcast (Sep 16, 2003)

Great info.


----------



## Trippin' Dipsies (May 7, 2003)

Good info... I would have no complaints with the season being reduced or split. I'm actually happy to see that Bluebill harvest numbers may be reduced (although the problem is far beyond hunter harvest).


----------



## Branta (Feb 6, 2002)

I think the AHM is going to be discussed at all levels. works fine when you're deep into it in either the restricted or liberal sections, but maybe it's becoming more suspect given what has been happening the last couple of years. Proof in the pudding for me is that just earlier this year there were talks that the AHM process might need "major" changes and more emphasis on Hunter satisfaction (a socioeconomic effect. should that even be in a "pop. biometrics matrix"?!).

It's a tough position to be in as a wildlife professional. you made the models based on sound scientific biometric formulas, so do you blindly follow saying "but this is what the data spits out"? Do you throw all that out because hunters now say, "we're just not seeing your ducks"? If you're going to shoot from the hip and disregard the best information you have, (the "sound" scienticific info), then what do you need the AHM for at all?!!

want to see a firestorm? have the NRC say 60/6 and then have a state say "well, we don't believe you, so we'll only go 45 and only 3 mallards"! the DNR would get killed from both the feds (for not stepping in line) and hunter groups (lost hunter opp., "our DNR is screwing over the hunter/they don't care" and "what makes you think the state knows better than the feds"? 

then again, how do you turn a blind eye to your own internal problems (GL mallard)?

what if I told you that in '04, michigans mallard breed pop was estimated at 338k. 

what if I now told you that for '05, it's * 230k? * you do the math.
Remember that over 1/2 of the mallards we shoot are GL mallards, so does a liberal season sound right for michigan?!!! But how do NOT go liberal if you believe in the AHM process? - it's going to get exciting at the next mtg, that's for sure!!! :yikes:


----------



## Chasin (Jun 25, 2002)

In my oppinion the number of mallards counted by the FWS on their annual pond counts should actually go down the first year the water returns to the PPR. 
Say the spring flight is 100 birds. In 2004 of those 100 birds, the FWS planes see ten of those birds on the ponds they fly over when they run their countings. The planes also count 100 ponds on the route they fly.

With me so far??

The general consensus is the total number of birds is flat from last year. 
So we also have 100 ducks returning in the spring of 2005. Of those ducks the FWS now counts 8 ducks out of the 100. Down 20 % but they count 120 ponds which is up 20% from 2004. With more quality habitat and the same number of birds, is it safe to assume they cant possibilly count the same number of birds given the expansion of quality habitat? 
The planes that do the counting run the exact same path year after year to maintain the base line. With water returning to Alberta and Sakatchawan and Canadian estemates of duck production up 13% over last year, Could this simply be where some of the ducks went from the Dakotas with their lower estimates?
It will take until next year to see if we really are getting anything back from the water we have this year. From the mallard tracking program from the state of arkinsaw almost everyone of the birds with tracking devices are in Sakatchawan right now. I'm not usually a very opptomistic person but from what I see happening to the water in the PPR I think this season will turn out to be better than most are predicting :chillin:


----------



## Huntsman27 (Sep 29, 2004)

and as everyone knows statistics can be swayed either way. The real truth will come out this Fall. Im really on the fence this year about passing and taking the cash Id spend and make a weeks trip to Neb shooting pheasants. Scouting different places, and having travelled around the State and Country [ND seems to have a nice set-up].....It doesnt look like there will be anything better than last year.As the scouting sure hasnt shown much where weve hunted, and other areas too. Wait and see.


----------



## bullcan (May 18, 2004)

I think the best thing that MI can do with a 60 day season is have one opener for all zones, the 3 openers that we have now is hard on the mallard population as this is when a large amount of mallards are killed in MI.


----------



## eyecatcher (Feb 2, 2004)

really understand all of this but I do understand that if the gl mallards are down then every day that the season opener is put back past october 5th the fewer local birds we kill. If we want to reduce the number of gl mallards killed then we should have a late opener like october 15th or 20th. 
One other thing I would like to know when the gl mallards are counted how do the count all the marina, golf coarse,city pond and park mallards?


----------



## Big Frank 25 (Feb 21, 2002)

One opener. TWO SPLITS!


----------



## doubleshot (Sep 21, 2004)

EyeCatch,

I hear what you are saying and have thought that too, but i dont think moving the opening date back to oct 15 is going to change the amount of GL mallards that are killed...If there is no hunting pressure on the birds those locals arent going anywhere, why would they have to? and also 2 weeks isnt enough weather change between Oct 1 and 15 or 20 for that matter to push them down....If anything MI should set the mallard limit to 3 birds per day  to reduce the amount of birds taken...25% reduction...


----------

